Monday, 16 April 2012

EURJPY, Monday 16 April, 2012

Hi Traders,

There's an interesting Set Up in the cross Euro / Yen. As soon as the small retracement  is complete - down to 104.25 or even 102.54 -  you  may want to enter your long position. But careful: if the chart doesn't break the resistance at 111.50 it might reverse down again.

Targets: 111.50 and 118.00


The monthly chart below shows 3 channels: the major channel is in red and it's almost horizontal. Note the blue triangles:  the chart  touched the channel 5 times in the past and it's now ready for a major breakout.

We also have another channel in orange. The yellow triangles show that the channel was touched 4 times and then we had a breakout (wave 4 in red).

Finally, the third channel in Magenta shows only 3 contact points. Consequently, we need one more contact with  the boundary of the magenta channel before going through it.

The weekly chart below show that the euro completed a typical retracement wave down named  5-X-5-X-5 (also named 5-3-5-3-5). This wave started from the "mid way pivot point" of the rounding top. The chart touched the blue channel 4 times before performing a very little breakout on the downside.

Gann used to call this kind of breakout a "throw over". This usually happens when the trend reverses. Note the reversal "morning star" at the bottom and also note that we reached the 300% target of the rounding top.

Check also the magenta channel with 4 contact points. It's ready for a breakout

The daily chart below shows that the Euro just completed 5 major waves down and started 5 waves up followed by some retracement waves down. It  performed a double bottom and a "morning doji star" between wave 4 and 5 

We also just started a new uptrend (wave 1 and 2 in turquoise) after the small breakout of the blue channel (on the downside) and 4 contact points (see the yellow triangles for the contact points).

In this chart, the retracement wave 2 will be completed at level 104.25 yen per euro but it can go down to 102.54. Then up to start wave 3.

The 4 hour chart below  shows wave 2 unfolding nicely in a channel after a triple top. In this case too, it touches the orange channel 4 times (see triangles). At the completion of the last wave down there should be a breakout. hopefully, on the upside

The 1 hour chart below shows the 9 or more waves down in formation. Just wait for them to complete and aldo wait also for the appropriate reversal candlestick  before taking your position.

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