SPI200, Saturday 21, 2012

Hi Traders,

I afraid that "that's it". The ASX has completed all possible waves up.

There's only one way: down.
This is confirmed by the analysis of the DJ30. See my post about it.

Entry point: at the opening.
Target: 4230 and 4010. There's a chance for 3800 and 3710 in the longer run. The latter confirmed by the Pinocchio candlestick in the weekly chart.

SITUATION

The monthly chart of the SPI200 below completed wave 4 by retracing 50% (in turquoise) of wave 3.

The weekly chart below shows the 4 major waves down in orange, all contained in the major channel in purple. Also, the chart touched the red channel 4 times and it's time for a breakout to the downside.

 

The daily chart below shows the 7 retracement waves up that completed the last leg up. They really were supposed to be 7 waves (according to the way to count waves) and they are equivalent to a 3 wave up (3-1-3).

At the top right of the chart you see 3 numbers: number 7 in white indicates the completion of 7 waves up; number 4 in orange shows that we completed the 4th wave down of a major downtrend started in November 2011; number 5 shows that the major wave 4 unfolded with 5 waves up.

Note the reversal spinning top at the end of wave 7.

 

 

The 4hour chart below shows that the last 5 wave up (wave 7) ended up with a double top and an reversal evening star. Also, the top resistance line in red confirms that the SPI200 didn't have enough momentum to move above 4393.

 

The 1hour chart below shows the very last 5 waves up, the double top and the reversal gravestone doji.