Sunday, 17 June 2012

EURUSD, Monday, June 18, 2012

Euro: R.I.P. 2002-2012.

This could be the commemorative epitaph on the Euro tombstone as Greece's  could push the debt-ridden country out of the European single currency, rocking the Euro to its core and sowing turmoil in global financial markets.

But the Euro is a big animal. As of February 2012, with more than €890 billion in circulation, the Euro has the highest combined value of banknotes and coins in circulation in the world, having surpassed the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Technical Analysis seems to confirm that we might be at a reversal point, although anything can happen at this stage.


Check the monthly chart below. If the timing is right, we are completing the 131st month out of 144. This means that the "Euro Saga" might take till the end of July 2013 before coming to a solution. (or an end).


The new wave down might be a 5-X-5 (5-3-5 for the Ellott purists). Based on the Fibonacci Expansion calculation, the next target could be 1.1058 usd (100%).


Furthermore, if it performs a 5-3-9 it could go as far as 0.96 usd (expansion to 161.8%), considering that the historical low was around 0.8234 in Oct 2000 (Metatrader).

The very last green candlestick retraced exactly 38.2% of the long red one which could be a sign of weakness.

NOTE: this is dangerous stage as it's too early to ascertain the type of Elliott wave is unfolding. It could be a wave X up, signalling the start of a new downtrend or a wave 1 up which starts a new uptrend.

So please check carefully your entry point as there could be some creazy volatility.

The weekly chart below is the most interesting. It shows 2 Flag formations with a Gann Throw Over (see triangles) which are usually followed by panic downtrends.

Note that wave 5 retraced only 38.2% of the last downtrend and this is a sign of weakness. This level also coincides with an historical low which is acting now as a resistance.

The magenta channel was touched 5 times and it's now expected to breakout.

The top of the last wave X also coincide with the historical Supp/Res and the 38.2% retracement of the last downtrend.

The daily chart below which shows the completion of 3 waves down and 3 up (wave 1-2-X). The latter stopped right on the resistance level. This should be followed by some 5 or 9 waves down.

Further confirmations come from the 4hour chart below that shows a bearish Shooting Start a the end of the last wave up.


The 1hour chart below shows the completion of the very last 9 waves up and a reversal candlestick named Dark Cloud Cover. It looks a valid Turning Point. A channel breakout on the downside would confirm this hypotesis.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Hi Traders. Tell me if you agree or (politely) disagree.

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.