OIL WTI, Wednesday Oct 24, 2012

Hi Traders,

Timing seems to be a serious matter for WTI Oil.

Since the Dec 2008 low around $36, the WTI futures started a new uptrend with 3 major waves up to $115 in Apr 2011.

It took 120 weeks precisely from low to top. See monthy chart below.

Then it moved sideways for 60 weeks precisely from top to low. Remarkable!

Now, all this moving sideways usually indicates a major wave 4 in formation, which should perform an  a-b-c-d-e, meaning a zig-zag with 5 legs.

If this is true we just started the last 5 waves down that constitute the wave "e" (see "5d" on the far right).

Tartget: $84.75 - as a minimum - and another likely target in the area $80.10-$78.50.

Furhermore: some say that it must go back to $70 (the lower blue line) before starting the last uptrend. This is actually a real chance but I don't have enough elements to confirm it. It's just an eventuality that I don't discard.

 



Note the daily chart below. After major wave 2 (in red, touching the red  horizontal line) a new downtrend started over. We should see of 5  waves down, where 1 and 2 - in red - are already in place. 

Very important: we're hovering over $87 right now, which is a very major support.

It should bounce back on the support and then go through. Use this retracement as an entry point. Check your own 1hour-15min chart for the best entry.

 


The 4-hour chart below shows a strong resistance at $93.62 (red horizontal line) and 4 waves down. The top of wave 4 is a good entry for a short.

 



Also, the 1-hour chart below indicated that wave 4 up (bottom right) is not complete yet. As the blue horizontal line is a confluence (K) of  Fib-nodes, it might be your entry point and also the top of wave 4.