Sunday, 4 August 2013

AUDUSD, almost ready

Hi Traders,

As you see in the monthly the AUDUSD chart is right on target (area 0.8877-0.8770) but hold your horses as it's a dangerous situation.

Normally, 5 red candles down (daily chart) mean imminent reversal but I'not entirely sure that the downtrend is completely over.

After the new low, the 1-hour chart may display a short rally and then again a new short wave down to 0.8860.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The 1-hour chart shows 8 waves out of 9. Anyone who knows my method of counting waves is aware that whenever the wave count is too cryptical I use the "count to nine" which is equivalent to counting 5 waves".

In this case "wave 9" isn't finished yet and it might take the AUDUSD to 0.8860.

The new low will mark the end of wave 3 (1-hour chart) followed by a  retracement upwards which constitutes wave 4 and, finally, by the last wave down (wave 5).

NOTE: if it doesn't get much below 0.8765 it might be the end of the line and a major rebound would start very soon with a possible target to 0.9580.

W.O.

The wave oscillator in the second 4-hour chart (there are two) displays an exit signal (of your short) but the W.O. in the second daily chart (there are two) doesn't.

Depending to the one you're you are using for your trading, you exit (1-hour) or stay (daily) in your short position.

With the Wave Oscillator, the exit signal is given by a "cross back" and a subsequent significant divergence (in terms of distance) between the tips of the red lines.

ie: the entry point is given when the red lines cross, the exit point is given when the red lines both cross back and then diverge significantly. 

See below the wave oscillator's charts (applied daily and 4-hour charts).


monthly chart: click to enlarge


weekly chart: click to enlarge


daily chart: click to enlarge


 wave oscillator applied to the daily chart: click to enlarge



4-hour chart: click to enlarge



wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart: click to enlarge



1-hour chart: click to enlarge




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