Thursday, 27 February 2014

S&P 500 topping?

Hi Traders,

S&P 500 now at 1854.00

The major uptrend of the S&P 500 - started on March 6th 2009 at level 665.09 - might be topping soon due to a 5 years Time Turning Point (TTP) expiring around March 3-7th, 2014.


The above TTP coincides with the 36-37 weeks TTP described in weekly chart below (see the red vertical lines).

This TTP also coincides with the 36-37 days TTP described in daily chart below (see the red vertical lines)


Gann theory suggest a top at 1895.
Fibonacci calculations suggest a top in the area 1895-1908.

Then down to the area 1409-1273.


Basically, next week we might witness the mighty "5th-of the 5th-of the 5th" followed by a major turnaround.

Check the weekly chart below. As the uptrend between March 2009 and March 2014 is nothing more then "major wave 1" made of 5 waves, this turnaround could be labelled major retracement wave 2.


In the weekly & daily  chartWave 5 - started with a low on Oct 2011 -  contains "an extension of an extension" within wave 5 of a smaller degree. Another extension occurred withing wave 3 - started on Sept 16, 2012.

According to Frost & Prechter this situation might cause Major wave 2 to be a steep correction.

Furthermore, according to the same source, a "normal" correction would stop "within the span of travel of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree" (area 1409-1273 in the weekly chart).

But when you have an extension within wave 5, the correction could reach the bottom of wave 2 at 1337, which BTW, happens to be right in the middle of the target area (see weekly chart).


There doesn't seem to be any "fundamental" reason for such a retracement. Hence, a "political event" or a "natural disaster" might trigger the correction.

ie: Are the Russians going to claim Crimea from Ukraine?

S&P 500 - weekly chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - daily chart - click to enlarge

S&P 500 - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

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