Tuesday, 23 April 2013

GOLD, Tuesday April 23, 2013

Hi Traders,

Gold - at 1,415 right now - might be set for another dive

TARGET: 1372, the area 1333-1321 and possibly 1267

SETUP: in the daily chart below Gold is performing wave 7 downward out of 9. Wave 7 is unfolding, in turn, in 5 waves, 4 of them already in place. The last one (downward) is starting right now. See below wave 4 (in green)



  



The start of the new downtrend is confirmed by the bearish candlestick - see just under 3 (in green) and 4(in black), in the 4-hours chart below -  appearing just after wave 4 (in black): this a typical reversal called "breakway" pattern.






Finally, see the 1-hour chart below, which shows the continuation pattern within the channel which usually develops in 3 waves up (only).




ENTRY: the red lines of the "wave oscillator" - in the 1-hour chart - converged enough to indicate a good entry for a short. If you are not in already, there should be another chance for a short around 1416-17 in the 15min chart

Thursday, 11 April 2013

USDJPY, Thursday Apr 11, 2013

Hi Traders,

The Japanese Yen is heading to the area 101.3/101.65 and beyond, as I indicated so many times in my posts since January 2012.

A BIT OF HISTORY

Not many traders know that the USDJPY rate was fixed at ¥360 in 1949. Since then it climbed relentlessly to ¥75 in Feb 2012.

It showed some weakness only in case of OIL Shock (and subsequent Trade Deficit) and when the Asset Price Bubble burst, as it occurred in February 2002, when it reached the low at ¥134.8.

That is to say that that low at ¥134.8 could be once again a possible target.
 
Other Fib Nodes: ¥105.39, 112.12, 118.4, 123.2, 128.7, 134.8
 
SITUATION
 
Although there's no sign of trend reversal or weakness yet, the ¥ could take a break after reaching ¥101.3/65 or higher and start a large ABC retracement within the weekly chart.
 
SET UP
 
The Elliott Waves in the 4 hour chart show the completion of 3 waves up (out of 5). The subsequent wave 4 should retrace a bit downwards (maybe to ¥98.6). Then Wave 5 should get the currency to ¥101.3/65.
 
ENTRY POINT
 
If this happens, wave 4 should unfold with an ABC or even an ABCDE down, in the 1 hour chart. This low could be a good entry point. 

Assuming that you want to take advantage of the last rally to 101.3/65 or higher, this Entry Point for your long position should be identified through your 15 min and 5 min charts.

The low will show up at the  end of an ABC or ABCDE and should be confirmed by a strong reversal candlestick accompanied by the sign of a trend reversal in the Wave Oscillator (similar to Bollinger Bands).

If you don't know how to use the very new Wave Oscillator feel free to ask.
 
Below the charts
 
Monthly chart: click to enlarge
 
 
 
 
Weekly chart: click to enlarge
 
 
 
 
Daily chart: click to enlarge
 
 
 
 
4-hour chart: click to enlarge
 
 
 
 
 1-hour chart: click to enlarge 
 

Wednesday, 10 April 2013

Major Indices, Wednesday April 10, 2013

Hi Traders,

Before starting:
  • I suspended our Free Webinars for a while
  • Our Newsletter will carry on as usual
  • I'm looking for a new challenge and business to associate with: if  anyone has a business proposition please write at info(at)fxtutors.com.au or call me at +61 405 233 578.

SETUP:

This is a comparison between 6 Stock Indices by using their Daily Charts.

SITUATION:

There's usually some correlation between indices but this time this relationship seem to be broken.

Although each chart shows that we're completing MAJOR wave 5 (upward) it's interesting to notice that:
  • The European Indices (CAC40, DAX30 and FT100) seem to have completed 4 MINOR waves up (our of 5) and they're starting the last one up.
  • The US Index DJ30 seems have completed only 3 minor waves up it might start minor wave 4 (down).
  • The US Index S&P500 seem have completed 4 minor waves up and it's almost done with minor wave 5 up as well
  • The Australian SPI200 seems to have completed all minor and major 5 waves up already. It has also completed retracement wave A (downward) and it's staging the new retracement wave B upward.
 CONCLUSION:

 If we take this thesis for good:
  • In Europe the indices might try to make a double top or a new top
  • The S&P500 is almost at the top
  • The SPI 200 is doing a sort of double top or lower
  • DJ30 might actually touch/broke the upper line of the channel and then retreat considerably

 TRADING:

The dividend season is approaching in Australia and I wouldn't enter the market now. After completing wave B (upward) the Index SPI200 might stage a considerable dip. that could actually be a good short.

The S&P500  might be close to the very top.

DJ30 seems to have stage an overextended minor wave 3 and could stage a retracement (minor wave 4).

As the trading risk is getting too high  it might not be worth it till we see more clarity.

This time I'll give it a miss till I see some good signs of reversal.


click to enlarge
 
click to enlarge
 
click to enlarge
 
click to enlarge
 
click to enlarge
 
click to enlarge

Wednesday, 27 March 2013

USDJPY SETUP, Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Hi Traders,

Before getting into our usual analysis (today: USDJPY) let me remind you that:

FIRST: The WEDNESDAY FREE TRADING WEBINARS are still on. They are hosted by ELLIOTT WAVES & FX TUTORS and presented by Mario D. Conti.

Please register for the date and time that works best for you by clicking the link below: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/8514371004062869248

TOPIC: Each Wednesday we will give away precious SETUPS, ENTRY POINTS & TARGETS determined by means of a combination of Elliott Waves + Candlesticks + Fibonacci + Oscillators.

WHEN: Each Wednesday, 7:00 PM AEST (Sydney Time).

HOW LONG: 45 minutes

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

AUDIO: Participants can use  their computer's microphone and speakers (VoIP) or telephone. Australia: Toll +61 3 8488 8992

Access Code: 508-768-150. Audio PIN: Shown after joining the webinar.

NOTE: Don't forget to RSVP on your Meetup and please, connect 5 minutes earlier.

SECOND: We are running a new ONLINE ELLIOTT WAVE TRADING COURSE.

This course will be held through GoToMeeting which allows everybody to interact through each session.

FEATURES
  • Attendance: limited to 6 people
  • Structure: 5 online sessions of 2 hours each
    • first 3 sessions about
      • Elliott Wave Theory
      • Elliott Wave Labelling
      • Shape, Amplitude and Extensions of waves
      • Type of retracements
      • New set of rules
      • Candlestick Theory
      • Identify Reversal Candlesticks and Pivot Points
      • The "Wave Oscillator" and other Indicators to confirm Pivot Points
      • Fibonacci Targets
    • the other 2 Sessions: identifying Set Ups, Triggers, Entry points, Exit Points

  • Price: $1,500 (GST included)
When:
  • Monday, April 8,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
  • Tuesday, April 9,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
  • Thursday April 10,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
then
  • Monday April 22,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
  • Tuesday April 23,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
To RSVP please EMAIL to info(at)FXTutors.com.au to receive instructions

ANALYSIS of USDJPY

SETUP of USDJPY, Wednesday March  27, 2013, (please read our disclaimer)

The USDJPY is setup for the last leg up. The Elliott people calls it "the 5th of the 5th of the 5th"

This means that we've virtually completed all waves up except the very last ripple.
 
TARGETS
 
very likely: 95.2-95.3 and 95.54
likely: 96.28, 97.74 and 98.50
possible: 99.00 and 99.63
maybe: 100.00 and 101.200

ENTRY POINT

In the 1-hour chart below, let the chart reaching the area 94.84-95.00 and then retracing down a bit to 94.45 or so. That should be a good entry for a long position to the targets above described. 

Make sure that you entry after a clear Reversal Candlestick in your 15 min chart.

Also, make sure the "wave oscillator" shows a clear reversal in your 15 min chart. 

1-hour chart: click to enlarge 

 

 
Monthly chart: click to enlarge 
 
 
Weekly chart: click to enlarge 
 
 
Daily chart: click to enlarge
 
 
4-hour chart: click to enlarge 

 

Tuesday, 26 March 2013

EURUSD, Tuesday March 26, 2013

Hi Traders,

Apologies for missing the last two weeks on FX Tutors. I actually published 2 newsletters on ElliottWaves.com.au but my ITs messed it up badly. Similar faith had the new type of video-newsletter on YouTube. BTW, my newsletter will stay free although you may have to login to get it sometimes in the future.

Before getting into our usual analysis (today: EURUSD) let me remind you that:

FIRST: The WEDNESDAY FREE TRADING WEBINARS are still on. They are hosted by ELLIOTT WAVES & FX TUTORS and presented by Mario D. Conti.

Please register for the date and time that works best for you by clicking the link below: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/8514371004062869248

TOPIC: Each Wednesday we will give away precious SETUPS, ENTRY POINTS & TARGETS determined by means of a combination of Elliott Waves + Candlesticks + Fibonacci + Oscillators.

WHEN: Each Wednesday, 7:00 PM AEST (Sydney Time).

HOW LONG: 45 minutes

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

AUDIO: Participants can use  their computer's microphone and speakers (VoIP) or telephone. Australia: Toll +61 3 8488 8992

Access Code: 508-768-150. Audio PIN: Shown after joining the webinar.

NOTE: Don't forget to RSVP on your Meetup and please, connect 5 minutes earlier.

SECOND: We are running a new ONLINE ELLIOTT WAVE TRADING COURSE.

This course will be held through GoToMeeting which allows everybody to interact through each session.

FEATURES
  • Attendance: limited to 6 people
  • Structure: 5 online sessions of 2 hours each
    • first 3 sessions about
      • Elliott Wave Theory
      • Elliott Wave Labelling
      • Shape, Amplitude and Extensions of waves
      • Type of retracements
      • New set of rules
      • Candlestick Theory
      • Identify Reversal Candlesticks and Pivot Points
      • The "Wave Oscillator" and other Indicators to confirm Pivot Points
      • Fibonacci Targets
    • the other 2 Sessions: identifying Set Ups, Triggers, Entry points, Exit Points

  • Price: $1,500 (GST included)
When:
  • Monday, April 8,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
  • Tuesday, April 9,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
  • Thursday April 10,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
then
  • Monday April 22,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
  • Tuesday April 23,  7pm-9pm AEST (Sydney time)
To RSVP please EMAIL to info(at)FXTutors.com.au to receive instructions

ANALYSIS

SETUP on EURUSD, Tuesday March  26, 2013, (please read our disclaimer)


SITUATION

The Euro, now at 1.2864, is yet to complete a pattern of 5 waves down (numbered in magenta). This pattern constitutes the "major wave 4" and it's made of 5 waves. See the monthly chart below.

Although it went nicely through a  set of 1-2-3-4 waves (in magenta), it didn't complete the last one yet which is unfolding with a 5-3-5.

More precisely, we have only a mere "5-3" out of a 5-3-5, where this "3" is usually called "2 step pattern".

After performing this "2 step pattern"  (see monthly and weekly chart below) as I predicted months ago, the Euro resumed its way down and it is now heading to 1.19 and maybe to the area 1.120-1.065.

This will be possible with 5 waves down of a minor grade, the first of which seems to be completed.

Monthly chart: click to enlarge 
 
 
NOTE: the "2 step pattern is the middle formation that links a 5-3-5 down or a 5-3-3".
 
In the weekly chart below, after point 4 (in magenta) we had 5 waves down followed by this "2 step pattern" which is always made of 3 waves.
 
This will be followed by some 5 waves down (occasionally, only 3) 
 
 Weekly chart: click to enlarge 


SETUP: After the "2 step pattern" in parole the EUR completed the first of  5 waves down in the Daily Chart and it's ready to bounce back upwards to make wave 2 (in 3 waves up).

Trade: long
Likely target: 1.3040
Possible target: the area 1.3120-1.3134
Maybe: 1.3160

Please check the 1-hour chart: the EURO doesn't seem to be really convinced to rebound, meaning that there could be another attempt to reach 1.283-1.284. Just keep your eyes open.




Daily chart: click to enlarge 
 
 
 
 
 
4-hour chart: click to enlarge 
 
 
 
 
 
 1-hour chart: click to enlarge 









Sunday, 3 March 2013

AUDUSD, Sunday March 3, 2013

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar that set a low at 1.018 could stage a very limited rally before finally heading South and start a new major downtrend.

SITUATION:

In the monthly chart below the AUDUSD has completed all 3 major waves up typical of a "Giant Two-Step-Pattern" started in April 2001 and ended in July 2011 at 1.1085.

After performing wave 3 up to the top (there are supposed to be only 3 waves), we started 4 retracement waves out of 5 (in magenta) in trading range.

NOTE: see the "breakaway" candlestick around number 4 in magenta , which is a powerful reversal pattern (4 doji candles + a wide red real body).

 
click the chart to enlargs, esc to exit
 

 
See the 4 waves in magenta in the weekly chart below

 
click the chart to enlargs, esc to exit


 
As shown in the daily chart below there should be a little correction upwards to the resistances at 1.0317-1.0336-1.034 followed by a major downtrend.

Note: the above targets could be a good Entry Point for a great short, provided that you wait for the complete development of an a-b-c up (two-step-pattern).


 



Se wave 1 and 2 in grey and the the double bottom in the 4-hour chart below to indicate the start of the new little trend up






Finally, please use the "wave oscillator" plotted in the 1-hour chart - or lower - before entering the new trade.

SHORT RANGE TARGET: to 1.0317-1.0336 or even 1.034.
MEDIUM RANGE TARGET: 0.939 and 0.88.



 
THE WAVE OSCILLATOR

The wave oscillator in the 15-min chart below shows that the new little retracement up is already started.
 
 
 

HOW THE OSCILLATOR WORKS

The red and grey lines swapped positions as soon as the new uptrend started: the red lines - which run inside in case of downtrend - moved outside and the grey lines moved inside, showing a new uptrend.

Friday, 1 March 2013

GOLD, March 1, 2013

Hi Traders,

Are we done with the Gold's retracement wave started in September 2011?

SETUP

As of the weekly chart below, Gold (now at 1582) has almost completed the "a-b-c-d-e" wave that contitutes "wave 4".  If this is true, this should mark the end of the last retracement down before the start of the final major rally made of "impulse wave 5".

NOTE: I want to underline that some major Elliott Wave Theorists disagree with the idea of another leg up, arguing that Gold has already completed all 5 waves and there's only one way: down.


CONCLUSION

Whichever perspective you decide to pursue, Gold should still move down the area around 1540-60 (now at 1582) and then start a rally but:
  • in the first case Gold should initiate a major rally from the area 1555 with a target well above level 2100. 
  • in the second case it should stage a minor rally to 1700 followed by the start of a major downtrend which would be confirmed by the breakout of the support at 1533.

See the "a-b-c-d-e wave" (major wave 4) in the weekly chart below



click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit
 
 
 
 
 See the almost completion of "wave e" with the display of 5 waves down in the daily chart below
 
 
 click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit
 
 




See that the "fifth of the fifth of the fifth" is not completed yet in the 4-hour chart below (but it's a matter of hours). This should be done by reaching level 1555 or so.
 
TRIGGERS:
  • There's a good chance of a double bottom in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.
  • Check for the reversal candlestick in the 1-hour chart before entering any trade.
  • make sure that the "wave oscillator" reverses in the 1-hour charts. To do that you should be able to observe:
  • two little spikes (sharp angles) in the upper lines (the red and the grey line) followed by the position swap of the lines meaning that:
  • both grey lines should get inside and both red lines should move outside 

 click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit



Thursday, 28 February 2013

AUDUSD, Thursday, February 28, 2013

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar - now at 1.027 - could stage a limited rally before finally heading South by starting a major downtrend.

SITUATION:

The AUD completed all 5 major waves up. Then it started a major downtrend with the completion of wave "a" down of a very minor grade. 

Now, there should be a correction upwards to the resistances at  1.034-1.0365 or even 1.039 - to be labelled wave "b" (of a minor grade) - followed by a major downtrend.

Note: the above targets could be the perfect Entry Point for a great short, provided that you wait for the complete development of 3 waves up (two-step-pattern).

At the top of the two-step-pattern there should be a clear reversal candlestick.

Finally, please use the "wave oscillator" (see below) plotted in the 1-hour chart - or lower - before entering the new trade.

SHORT RANGE TARGET: wave "b" to 1.034-1.0367 or even 1.039.
MEDIUM RANGE TARGET: 0.939 and 0.88.






THE WAVE OSCILLATOR

The wave oscillator in the 4-hour chart below shows that the new little retracement up is already started. 

HOW THE OSCILLATOR WORKS

The red and grey lines swapped positions as soon as the new uptrend started: the red lines - which run inside in case of downtrend -  moved outside and the grey lines moved inside, showing a new uptrend.

This is a confirmation of the new retracement up (wave "b").
Also, note the completion of the last 5 waves down.




Saturday, 16 February 2013

Turning Point of all Stock Indices? Saturday, February 16, 2013

Hi Traders,

Please don't forget that we hold two webinars every Wednesday:
  • one at 7pm (Sydney time)
  • one at 7pm (Perth time)
Back to trading, there are rumors about the stock markets topping and reversing. To read some confirmation let's see a comparison of the major daily charts: DAX30, DJ30, FT100, S&P500 and SPI200.
 
ps: Don't miss the last chart at the bottom

SITUATION

Although waves 1 to 4 somehow coincide in each daily chart, this correlation looks broken afterwards, with only FT100 and SPI200 showing 5 waves (of a minor grade) to the top.
 
This means that:
  • all charts might start a major reversal in the the week 25Feb-1Mar or even the incoming one
  • OR
  • they are actually starting a very minor reversal down (wave 4) followed by a minor double top (wave 5). Only then, the major reversal would take place.
The DAX below shows a little downtrend. Basically, if it bounces back on the channel line, it might form a double top or even reach level 8000 where a major reversal would start.



click on the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit
 
 
 
See the double top in the FT100  below - which comes usually a week earlier then the other markets. Note the Stochastic in negative divergence although both the awesome osc. and the wave osc. don't give us any go yet.
 
 
 
click on the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit 
 
 
 
 
 
DJ30 and S&P500 below show a very distressed reversal candlestick formation called "wheezing pattern" at the top, meaning an imminent reversal.
 
Whether this is  going  to be a major reversal or instead a small a-b-c down followed by a double top this is not  clear.
 
At present there seem to be only 3 waves up out of 5. Note the Stochastic in negative divergence although both the awesome osc. and the wave osc. don't give us the go yet.
 
 
 
click on the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit 
 
 
 
Yet again 3 waves up only - out of 5 - for the S&P 500 below with the wheezing formation which is by definition a very bad sign. Note the Stochastic in negative divergence although both the awesome osc. and the wave osc. don't give us the go for a major reversal yet.
 
 
 
click on the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit 
 
 
 

Instead,the SPI200 below shows the completion 5 ripples up plus the reach of the expected target at level 5000. Actually, level 5041 is the perfect "50% retracement up" of the major slump occurred in 2007-09.

 
 
click on the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit
 
 

 
Finally, note the weekly chart of the SPI200 just below. We have some significant coincidences:
  • we reached the same top 3 times
  • the last wave looks a "two step pattern" which is a 3-wave pattern (completed or almost near 5041)
  • Note the TIMING:  if the 18 weeks pattern will be repeated, the reversal should occur the week 25Feb-1Mar or even the incoming one.
 
 
click on the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit


Thursday, 14 February 2013

EURUSD, Friday, Feb 15, 2013

Hi Traders,

Here some good news first.

  1. We moved back the webinars to 7pm (from 8pm)
  2. From Wednesday 20th, we are going to run 2 webinars each Wednesday:
  • one at 7pm (Sydney time)
  • one at 7pm (Perth time)
This way everyone in Australia, Singapore, Indonesia and around the  same longitude wiil be able to attend our webinars. Hence, the next one is scheduled for Wed, Feb 20, 7 (NOT 8pm).

Back to Trading Markets now.


SITUATION

Markets seem to be reversing quickly - almost every market - and so the EURUSD.

As you can see by the monthly chart below the EURUSD has reached the same top of January 2004 and then it started reversing. 
Now, if this is a "two step pattern" like it seems to be - a three wave pattern up - there is NOT going to be any wave 4 and 5 up.

Hence, this new downtrend could take the pair to some of the below mentioned targets, according to the completion and amplitude of the new 5 waves down, being the first two targets more likely to be reached:

  • 1.230
  • 1.191
  • 1.160
  • 1.121
  • 1.065








Judging by the weekly chart below the two-step-pattern seems to be  completed and the new downtrend has started already. See the reversal candlestick as a confirmation.










The daily chart below shows the nearest target being at 1.33 (blue line) - for those of you who want to take a short downtrade - but also even lower if the area 1.3188-1.3139 is reached. Then there should be a retracement up in three waves.







There are 4 well shaped waves - out of 5 - in the 4-hour chart below. Consequently:
  • you may want to take a quick short to 1.33 or lower
  • you may want to wait for the completion of wave 5 down and then take a long position to get the retracement up.
  • you may wait for the retracement up to be completed and then short EURUSD again .






ENTRY POINT:

The 1-hour chart below shows 4 litlle waves (out of 5). The fifth will be up. Just wait for the fifth wave to be completed before taking a short position. You'll see a reversal candlestick at the top of this new little ripple 5.

There are also three oscillators below:
  • the "wave" oscillator, similar to the Bollinger bands (but it's not). This is going to give you the earliest entry signal. Check this oscillator near the last candle in the 1-Hour chart below.

  • It shows the red lines still running inside and the grey lines still running outside. This is an indication that the downtrend is still on. Again, just wait for the fifth ripple to be completed before taking any short position.

  • EXIT SIGNAL. This oscillator will alert you that you reached the bottom of the big wave in 1-hour chart when the two lower lines (both the lower-red and the lower-grey) perform a sharp angle up. 

  • Note: DON'T enter any new long trade till all four lines swap position (the grey lines getting inside and the red lines moving outside)

  • Also, enter the new long trade ONLY when both grey lines narrow down.
  • The "awesome oscillator" provides a slower but sometimes safer signal.  Just wait for it to get to zero line before getting any position.

  • Finally the "Stochastic Oscillator": Entry only if the the stochastic of the 1-hour chart (or 15min-chart) shows a divergence, never before.