Wednesday, 29 May 2013

EURUSD, Head & Shoulder

Hi Traders,

The Head & Shoulder is a reliable reversal pattern. If you master the Elliott Waves you can identify the right entry points and targets to enhance the profitability of your trading in such a market condition.

SITUATION

With the violation of this major support at 1.2886 the EURUSD - which now staged a H&S in the daily chart - will start the last major wave downward which might bring it to 1.19 and, under extreme conditions, to 1.12, target that I wouldn't dismiss at all.

If this analysis is correct, the resistance around the area 1.2899-1.2911 (or  maybe 1.2928-1.2935) should be a viable entry point for a juicy short, lasting weeks.  

TARGETS 

daily chart
DOWN

likely: area 1.2752-1.2744
possible:  the area 1.2658-1.2688

weekly chart
DOWN

likely: the area 1.2457-1.2520
possible: 1.2328

Note the cycles in the weekly chart below. Also, check the targets (blue horizontal lines).


weekly chart - click to enlarge



See the Head & Shoulder in the daily chart below



daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge



Tuesday, 28 May 2013

SPI200, a necessary ZigZag

Hi Traders

The SPI200 now at 4,985 took a big hit in the last few weeks. Although this happens all the time around the end of May, many ask whether this is the end of the uptrend.

THE REAL PICTURE

Check the weekly chart below. After the big slump occurred in Nov 07-Mar 09, the SPI200 performed major-wave-1 up and major-wave-2 downward (in bold grey, font 15). It's now trying to unfold major-wave-3 to the area 5,469-5,572.

But hold your horses.



weekly chart - click to enlarge



To be able to develop major-wave-3 the index needs a system of 5 waves, 3 of which are already on the paper (1-2-3 in blue). 

Now, every Elliott guy knows that the next wave (wave 4) could be a boring long term ZigZag (or 5-3-5) between the previous major top and the area at 4,569-4,459. 

This Zig-Zag will be followed by the resume of the last wave up (wave 5).

All the blue horizontal lines in the weekly chart above are possible targets for wave 4, a zig-zag made of 3 to 5 waves. 

TIMING

Wave 4 in the weekly chart above might end around September 13-16 followed by the start of the final uptrend (wave 5).


SHORT TERM SITUATION

In the daily chart below, this very first downtrend must be completed in 5 waves. We just started the small retracement-wave-4 to 5,004-5,009 an maybe higher (5,033-5,036).

Then wave 5 will resume downward to 4,888 and maybe 4,849.

Note: the target area marked by the blue horizontal lines. This is the target of the first impulse wave downward.



daily chart - click to enlarge


TARGETS

short pullback (wave 4 in the 4-hour chart) to

likely: area 5,004-5,009
possible: 5,033-5,036

then

short downtrend (wave 5 in the 4-hour chart) to 

likely: 4,907-4903
possible: 4,888-4,849

Target area even clearer (the targets) in the 4-hour chart below


4-hour chart - click to enlarge




Monday, 27 May 2013

GOLD, hold your horses

Hi Traders,

I heard everything and the opposite of everything about Gold. Let's out some of the nonsense.
  • Is this downtrend over? Almost done, be patient.
  • Will it be followed by a rally? There's now the chance of a rally.
  • Is Gold going to start a major uptrend? Much depends of the ability of the commodity to break the area of resistance at 1,522-1,532.
  • Most importantly, it depends by the number, shape, and magnitude of the developing Elliott Waves.
TARGETS

VERY SHORT TERM UPTREND (1-hour chart)
area 1,414.6-1,419.0 and
area 1,438.9-1,442.9

SHORT TERM DOWNTREND (4-hour chart)
area 1,335.7-1,308.6

MEDIUM TERM UPTREND  (daily chart)
area at 1,522-1,532.

SITUATION

GOLD, now at 1,492.27, is performing a minor rally to the areas 1,414.6-1,419.0 and, most likely, 1,438.9-1,442.9. This will be followed by a downtrend to the area 1,335.7-1,308.6. 

If this target is reached by means of 5 waves downwards - verifiable in either  the 4-hour and the 1-hour chart - there could be a new rally to the area at 1,522-1,532.

ENTRY FOR A POSSIBLE LONG

After getting to the area 1,335.7-1,308.6 in 5 waves - in the 4-hour or 1-hour chart - you need to make sure that Gold is bottoming out. Consequently:
  • make sure that you have the right "set of waves"  in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.
  • check that you have a reliable reversal candlestick in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.
  • check that you have a confirmation from the wave oscillator.

ALL CHARTS BELOW


Gold weekly chart - click to enlarge




Gold daily chart - click to enlarge



Gold 4-hour chart - click to enlarge




Gold 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Thursday, 23 May 2013

OIL "debacle"

Hi Traders,

The Oil, now at 93.50, got a big hit this week and is set to decline further.

TARGETS

likely: area 93.62-93.26,  92.21-91.82 and 89.97-89.77
possible: area 87.51-87.06
maybe: 83.80

ELLIOTT WAVE SETUP

In the weekly chart below the OIL performed an a-b-c-d and is now enfolding the last leg downwards (wave e).

If it this impulse downwards goes through the supports at $89 and $87 it has the potential to squeeze the commodity down to $80 and even below.
However, if it doesn't move below those supports, there's the chance of a reversal and even a breakout to the upside.

Note: the 2 grey channels:

  • the large one has touched the boundaries 4 times meaning that there should be a breakout
  • the inner one has touched 4 times as well. Once again, this means that there should be a breakout
As I said, it's not clear whether the breakout will be on the upside or the downside but I wouldn't worry for now.

weekly chart - click to enlarge



The daily chart below is a bit more precise with the targets, meaning that the first impulse downwards (out of 3) should end in the area 93.62-93.26. More possible supports in the areas 92.23-91.82 and 90.35-89.98


daily chart - click to enlarge



Even more interesting the 4-hour chart below with a substantial double top and some targets in the area 92.21-91.82 and 89.97-89.77


4-hour chart - click to enlarge



ENTRY POINT

If, in the 1-hour chart below, there's a little pullback from the area 93.50-93.35 to form a top in area 94.36-94.58, this would form "minor retracement wave 4" which would unfold most likely in 3 waves.

This  could be a further chances to get a good entry point for your short.

1-hour chart - click to enlarge


Monday, 20 May 2013

GBPUSD bouncing back


Hi Traders,

GBPUSD now at 1.5215.

After the top at 1.5605 - check the top at "2" in the daily chart below -  the Pound  resumed the main downtrend to point 1 (in black). It's now performing a temporary pullback.


DAILY CHART - click the chart to enlarge





SITUATION

After bottoming at 1.5157 the Pound should bounce back to 1.5298, possibly the area 1.5323-1.5328 and theoretically to the area 1.5360-1.5390.

This should be staged with a two-step-pattern upward, meaning 3 waves only. Then the major downtrend would resume.

SHORT TERM TARGETS:

(up) likely: 1.5298
(up) possibly the area 1.5323-1.5328
(up) theoretically the area 1.5360-1.5390

(down) likely: area 1.5073-1.5159
(down): likely: 1.4984

LONG TERM TARGETS (down):

(down) likely: 1.4777
(down) possible: 1.4552
(down) maybe: 1.4345

ENTRY POINT

Long Position: not worth it but if you want to get in, wait for area 1.5187

Short Position. Entry only:
  • after reaching the target above mentioned
  • the last wave of the two-step-pattern must be performed in 5 waves up
  • wait for reversal candlestick at the top
  • wait for a confirmation from the "wave oscillator" on your 4-hour chart (see below) before entering your short position.
For info on how to use the "wave oscillator" please check http://www.fxtutors.com.au/p/the-wave-oscillator.html



4-HOUR CHART - click the chart to enlarge





 4-HOUR CHART with the wave oscillator - click the chart to enlarge




 1-HOUR CHART - click the chart to enlarge





 1-HOUR CHART with the wave oscillator - click the chart to enlarge 
















Wednesday, 15 May 2013

GBPUSD recharge

Hi Traders,

GBPUSD now at 1.5246.

After the top in the area 1.5600-1.5551 - check the top at "2" in the weekly chart below -  the Pound  resumed the main downtrend. It's now performing a temporary pullback.

SITUATION

Unless there's a breakout of the support at 1.5233 the GBPUSD should bounce back to the area 1.53241-.53622 where the major downtrend would resume.

SHORT TERM TARGETS:

(up) likely: area 1.5354-1.5362
(down) likely: area 1.5073-1.5159
(down): likely: 1.4984

LONG TERM TARGETS (down):

likely: 1.4777
possible: 1.4552
maybe: 1.4345

ENTRY POINT

Entry point for a short: possibly the area 1.5354-1.5362.

Please wait for a reversal candlestick and a confirmation from the "wave oscillator" - on your 4-hour/1-hour  chart - before entering your trade.

click the chart to enlarge



From the top at 52 - in the daily chart below - the GBPUSD started 5 major waves downwards. Wave 1 and 2 are already in place and we now witness the very first stage of wave 3 downward.


click the chart to enlarge



See the top of wave 2 at 5in the 4-hour chart below.  From that top the pound performed 3 waves down and it's now bouncing back to build wave 4,  up to the area 1.53241-1.53622.


click the chart to enlarge



The 4-hour chart below shows the wave oscillator. Note the last 2 vertical lines which provided the entry/exit of your trade. The last red vertical line (to the right) for the entry followed by the last black vertical line for the exit.


click the chart to enlarge


1-hour chart below. Check the targets (blue horizontal lines)


click the chart to enlarge



 Wave oscillator plotted on a 1-hour chart below. Check the targets (blue horizontal lines)


click the chart to enlarge











Tuesday, 14 May 2013

AUDUSD, let's get on this pullback



Hi Traders,

Check this analysis down to the 15-min chart. There's the chance for a nice pullback of the AUDUSD.


As predicted a couple of weeks ago the AUDUSD, now at 0.9956, started a sharp downtrend and right now it's staging a rebound which is still part of the main downtrend.

Note: If it doesn't stop at 1.011 this pullback might rally further up to the area 1.014-1.0154 and maybe the area 1.0199-1.0222 

Then the downtrend should resume towards the area 0.9853-0.9837, then level 0.9412 and 0.9388. 

TECHNICAL SETUP

In the weekly chart below the Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in magenta) and it's now performing wave "e" downwards with 5 waves (starting from the top in 5d). 


PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

temporary pullback:

Likely: 1.0114

Possible: 1.156
Maybe: 1.0221

main downtrend:


Likely: area 0.9853-0.9837

Possible: 0.9412 and 0.9388
Maybe: 0.8952, 0.8877



weekly chart - click to enlarge






The Gann timing in the daily chart below suggests that our "wave 4" (the pullback) could top around May 17-20.


daily chart - click to enlarge





See also the targets (blue horizontal lines) of the pulback in the 4-hour chart below


4-hour chart - click to enlarge



See the imminent pullback confirmed by the Elliott Waves count in the 1-hour chart below: 5 waves down with the last one further broken down in 5 waves




1-hour chart - click to enlarge


See the bullish double bottom  in the 15 min chart below


15-min chart - click to enlarge


Monday, 13 May 2013

EURAUD, a risky matter

Hi Traders,

The EURAUD is now at 1.3000. The weekly chart below shows a nice downtrend followed by a clear "round formation".

When this occurs (long downtrend + round pattern) analysts usually project (one or twice) the distance between the low at 55 and the "neckline" to get some idea of the targets. The targets so calculated are: 1.2910, 1.4205 and 1.5487.

Well, plausible but this time there might be a catch. 

SETUP

Check the waves after the low at 55: they don't seem to have the strength to get to 1.42 (yet) and the whole group of waves looks more like a continuation pattern of the previous downtrend.

If this is correct, the EURAUD may not be able to go through the area 1.3160-1.3228 and, even in the event that it gets to 1.33 it should still retrace to 1.2150.

For the "magicians" of timing, note the 12 weeks cycle that should mark the top of wave 5 this week.

click the chart to enlarge



Note also the cycle of 126 trading days in the daily chart below. More importantly, starting from the low at c4, we might have already 4 waves in place with the 5th one on the way to the area 1.3160-1.3228.



click the chart to enlarge



TRIGGER

Keep an eye to your own 4-hour chart and especially your own 1-hour chart to be able to get the new top.

If this is followed by a nice reversal candlestick + a reversal pattern in the "wave oscillator" you have your entry point downward.

Finally, check the channel in the 4-hour chart below. The pair touched the channel 4 times already. This is usually an indication that the breakout is not too far away.


click the chart to enlarge

Sunday, 12 May 2013

AUDUSD, staging a pullback



Hi Traders,

As predicted a couple of weeks ago the AUDUSD started a sharp downtrend and right now it's staging a rebound which is still part of the main downtrend.

Note: If it doesn't stop at 1.011 this pullback might rally further up to the area 1.014-1.0154 and maybe the area 1.0199-1.0222 

Then the downtrend should resume towards the area 0.9853-0.9837, then level 0.9412 and 0.9388. 

TECHNICAL SETUP

In the weekly chart below the Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in magenta) and it's now performing wave "e" downwards with 5 waves (starting from the top in 5d). 


PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

Likely: area 0.9853-0.9837
Possible: 0.9412 and 0.9388
Maybe: 0.8952, 0.8877



weekly chart - click to enlarge



The Gann timing in the daily chart below suggests that our "wave 4" (the pullback) could top around May 17-20.


daily chart - click to enlarge





See the imminent pullback confirmed by a nice "hammer" candlestick. See also the targets (blue horizontal lines) in the 4-hour chart below


4-hour chart - click to enlarge












WTI OIL, are you in?


Hi Traders,


The OIL - now at 95.91 - started the nice rally that I predicted last week.


I also predicted a pull back to the area 94.83-94.56 before starting the new uptrend.

It did it religiously - slightly below, to level 93.37 - before staging a nice reversal candlestick (hammer).

Still, be careful as it could bounce back again to the area 94.45-95.05 which  could be a good entry area.

TARGETS:

Likely: 97.68-98.22 and 100.38-100.67
Possible: 101.97
Maybe: 103.40-104.00

SETUP: 


In the weekly chart below, after the a-b-c (in red), the Oil performed 4 waves up and its now building the 5th one up.









The daily chart below shows that the Oil performed 4 waves up already (out of 5).

Note that it touched the top trend line 3 times. This time it should go trough it as it completed wave 4 (downward) with a nice hammer candlestick.






Expect the target in the area 97.68-98.22 to perform (all or part of) wave 5 as indicated in the 4-hour chart below but it could rally further up to 100.38-100.67.


ENTRY POINT:

Possibly, entry in the area 94.45-95.05. 








Saturday, 11 May 2013

EURUSD, all according to plan


Hi Traders,

All according to plan? It looks like.
Still, be cautious as markets are getting jittery.

Last week I say that EURUSD was likely to bounce up to 1.31 before plunging. It dropped religiously (although it went further up to 1.32).

Now, if this analysis is correct, this should be the last chance to get quite a long trade down to 1.2512 - 1.2330 - 1.2120 - 1.1950 and below, unless the BCE intervenes to stop the slump (I doubt it). 

Supports for the short term:

  • 1.2891-1.2880-1.28738

TARGETS (short term)

likely: 1.2891 - 1.2878 - 1.28690
possible: the area 1.2779-1.2748
maybe: the area 1.2687-1.2668 


Check some target the weekly chart right below







ELLIOTT WAVES



In the daily chart below, the EURUSD performed a large 5dwn-3up-5dwn-3up-5dwn downward to 1.2039. See point "55" at the bottom of the chart.

This wave was followed by a two-step-pattern (1up-2dwn-3up). See point "53" at the top of the chart.

This two-step-pattern should be followed by another large 5dwn-3up-5dwn-3up-5dwn. Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart (in magenta).


Note: if this analysis is correct, this large wave down should be the very last chance to witness a large scale downtrend for the Euro, maybe for few years.






Similarly, in the 4-hour chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves downward) to 1.2745, followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).


If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards of a lesser degree if compared to the daily chart.

Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart. Wave 3 is not completed yet.










Wednesday, 8 May 2013

WTI OIL, time for long

Hi Traders,


The OIL - now at 95.54 - seems to be ready for a nice rally, up enough for a good trade.


TARGETS:


Likely: 97.50-98.00

Possible: 100.30-100.90
Maybe: 103.5-104

SETUP: 


In the weekly chart below, after the a-b-c (in red), the Oil performed 4 waves (sideways) and its now ready for the 5th one up.









The daily chart below shows that the Oil bounced back from the top trend line 3 times and it's now hovering there once again. This is an indication that there's fair enough energy for the new uptrend.

However - even in the likely event that it pulls back to the area 94.83-94.56 (quite possible) - the commodity should start the new uptrend soon.





Expect the first target in the area 97.50-98.00 to complete wave 3 as indicated in the 4-hour chart below.

Then again, a new pullback named "wave 4" will take place, followed by the last rally (possibly) to the area at 100.30-100.90

ENTRY POINT:

Possibly, entry in the area at 94.83-94.56. Hence, don't get into this trade straight away.





Tuesday, 7 May 2013

EURUSD, time's running out

Hi Traders,

As in the weekly chart below, the Euro - now at 1.3078-79 - is moving  quite precisely with a cycle of top and lows every 34-36 weeks. Although the next 34 weeks cycle will come to an end next week, the Euro seems on the way down already.

Trading sessions in the 1-hour chart showed traders taking both sides quite equally in the previous 3 days and this might be a clue of the market shifting from bullish to bearish.

Moreover, the top at 1.32431 didn't go much further then previous top at 1.32011 forming a sort of double top.

However, a short rally to $1.3094-1.31 might still occur before starting the new  downtrend.










ELLIOTT WAVES



In the daily chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 downward to 1.2039 followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).

If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards. Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.











Similarly, in the 4-hour chart below, the EURUSD performed a 5-3-5-3-5 (5 waves downward) to 1.2745, followed by a two-step-pattern (1-2-3 up).


If this analysis is correct, the two-step-pattern will be followed by another 1-2-3-4-5 wave downwards of a lesser degree if compared to the daily chart.

Wave 1 and 2 are already on the chart.



Here are the targets as in the daily chart above

Likely: the area between 1.2990 and 1.2966
Possible: 1.298
Maybe: the area between 1.2779 and 1.2748











Monday, 6 May 2013

AUDUSD, Targets & Timing


Hi Traders,

AUDUSD started a violent downtrend as I predicted last week. The Aussie has carried on an "a-b-c-d" (in the weekly chart) and it's performing wave "e" downwards in 5 waves. (starting from the top in d5), We now performing  wave 3 (out of 5) as in the daily chart.

The Gann timing suggest that the 5 waves could be completed by May 17-20.

As I said, this "depreciation" could be considerable and protracted for quite sometimes (more waves down) and could take the pair below the parity.


FUNDAMENTAL REASONS

The Budget Deficit is out of control.
The government is might increase the taxes which in turn will reduce the  economy expansion.
The RBA might lower its cash interest rate.
The Rating Agencies might decide to downgrade the government debt.
China might slow down further.

TECHNICAL SETUP

The present downtrend started at 1.03845 with wave 3 (of 5). Although there is a reversal candlestick (engulfing pattern) in the daily chart, the "three soldiers" in the 4-hour chart warn of a possible rebound in the area 1.022 to 1.0265 or higher.

PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 

Likely: 1.0010,  1.000,
Possible: 0.9904, 0.9822
Maybe: 0.9788, 0.9386, 0.8516 and 0.8000



weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge