EURUSD, showdown

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD failed to go through the major resistance at 1.32 and completed a 2-step pattern (1-2-3 upwards) as expected. If this analysis is correct the currency pair has exhausted its upwards energy and should start a downtrend.

TARGETS

likely: 1.2998 and the area 1.29923-1.29750
possibly: 1.28755 and 1.2818
maybe: area 1.2742-1.2754
medium term: area 1.2406-1.2389

ENTRY POINT

Don't entry unless the "Wave Oscillators" in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart show "permission to entry". Possibly, seek a confirmation from the Awesome oscillator in both time frames.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that the a-b-c-d should be followed by "wave e" a long way downwards, especially in case of breakout of the major supports at 1.24 and 1.19.

The weekly chart shows that after the top at 5d the EURUSD started 5 major waves downwards, wave 1 and 2 (in magenta) already in place and wave 3 starting on.

The daily chart  confirms that after the top at 32 we also have 2 waves down and wave 3 just started.

The 4-hour chart shows the last top at 32 and that a wave downwards just started

NOTE: in the 4-hour chart that shows only the "wave oscillator" we have some "Top Cusps" showing a moderate reversal. However, the red lines are not touching yet or not close enough to give you "the go". Furthermore, the Awesome oscillator is not down to zero yet.

monthly chart, click to enlarge

 daily chart, click to enlarge

daily chart, click to enlarge

daily chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge

 1-hour chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge

GBPUSD, perfect entry

Hi Traders,

The GBPUSD, now at 1.5196, bounced back on the main resistance at 1.52685 and seems to be willing to start a long downtrend. If this analysis is correct we are right on top of the perfect entry point. 

The fact that the EURUSD shows the same patterns and symptoms makes me suspicious, meaning that the GBPUSD might follow the Euro downwards.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.4853-1.4778
possible: area 1.4552-1.4542
maybe: 1.4345
longer term: 1.4053-1.3931

ENTRY POINT

Wait for wave oscillator in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart to confirm.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The GBPUSD monthly chart shows an a-b-c-d in red, meaning that "wave e" is on his way down. See 1-2 in magenta and 1-2 in red color, meaning that both wave 3 in magenta and in red are going to be downtrends.

The weekly chart shows a periodicity of 21-22 weeks, the last two vertical bars on the right coinciding perfectly with the start of the new downtrend.

The daily chart shows the GBPUSD touching the resistance at 1.51685 and the 4-hour chart shows the last 1-2-3 upwards (two-step pattern) which is usually followed by a new downtrend.

Note the 4-hour chart with the "wave oscillator" only:  the black lines are ready to move outside and the red inside (line swap), meaning downtrend.


Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge

 1-hour chart, click to enlarge

AUDUSD retracement

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD, now at 0.9210, is taking a pause in its dive and it is heading North. This is likely to occur with a 3 wave retracement (two-step pattern).

TARGETS

likely: 0.9523
possible: area 0.9742-0.9764
maybe: area 0.9959-0.9985

ENTRY POINT

Around the area 0.916-91.8. But wait for the "Wave Oscillator" (in the 1-hour chart) to give you the "go" and for the Awesome oscillator (in the same  1-hour chart) to confirm.

To exit the trade wait for the "Wave Oscillator" (in the 4-hour chart) to take you out.

If you trade for the long run and you keep your trades going for few days, wait for the "Wave Oscillator" (in the 4-hour chart) to give you the "go" and for the Awesome oscillator (in the same  4-hour chart) to confirm.

To exit the trade wait for the "Wave Oscillator" (in the daily chart) to take you out.

ELLIOTT WAVES

As you can see by the weekly chart below, the AUDUSD is shaping an a-b-c-d-e (in magenta). Leg "e" should  unfold by means of a downtrend made of 5 waves. This retracement will be labelled "wave 2" (not labelled at present). 

But don't be fouled: after bouncing back (maybe up to the parity), it should resume the downtrend well below 0.90.


Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

 1-hour chart. Click to enlarge

GBPUSD, two-step pattern

Hi Traders,

The GBPUSD has almost completed a quite large two-step pattern upwards - see daily chart -, a retracement upwards named 5-3-5 by Elliott.

SITUATION

The Pound is expected to rally to the area 1.5826-1.5911 to complete the two-step pattern  - see daily chart - where it should reverse to start a major downtrend.

TARGETS

Daily chart: the area 1.5826-1.5911. Then a new downtrend to well below 1.50
NOTE: if the downtrend stops at the support around 1.5412, this would change radically the wave scenario


Monthly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hour chart. Click to enlarge

1-hour chart. Click to enlarge

WTI OIL, new high

Hi Traders,

On my post on May 23rd the OIL was expected to reach the area 91.82-92.21. It reached 91.26 and bounced back as expected.

After that low, it started a rally in 5 waves, 2 of them completed already and  the 3rd one seems on its way to the area 103.31-104.

TARGETS

4-hour chart: area 100.11-101.06
daily chart: area: 101.62-102.05 and 103.36-103.73
weekly chart: area 103.31-104.00 and area 108.39-109.08

SITUATION

Theoretically the OIL is moving within a symmetric triangle - see monhtly chart. This time we may see a breakout of the upper boundary ... whatever Ben Bernanke is going to say. 


Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Gold update

Hi Traders,

Gold seems to be close to the target at 1321.6-1308. If it bounces back on that support there could be a $200 pull back or even the start of a new major uptrend.

TARGETS

4-hour chart and 1-hour chart:

Gold - now at 1390 - is climbing to the area 1392.6-1392.4 and maybe to 1400-1401.6.

Daily chart:

Then it should resume the very last downtrend to the area 1321.6-1308 (daily chart) where it would complete a major a-b-c.

The daily chart shows the 5 waves that forms major wave c as well as the target in the area 1321.6-1308.6.

This low should be followed by a first rally to 1553.7 and the area at 1616.7-1630.1.



weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD, right on target

Hi Traders,

last month I said that the main target was around the support at 0.9380. The AUDUSD reached 0.9325 and bounced back.

SITUATION

Check the 4 chart: the Aussie reached the major support with 5 smaller waves and bounced back to 0.9665.

TARGETS

Short term (4-hour & 1-hour chart)

The AUDUSD is expected to retrace to the area 0.9558-0.9544 (1-hour chart),  then the uptrend should resume to the area 0.9764-0.9742.

Medium term (daily chart)

This initial pullback is part of a major "two-step pattern", a 3 waves pattern  upwards that should finally take the AUDUSD to the area 0.9959-1.0010.

Long term (weekly chart)

Around the parity, the downtrend should resume to 0.8877 and 0.8578 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

SPI200, almost there

Hi Traders,

As I said on May 28th, the SPI200, now at 4805, is believed to perform a large Zig-Zag till mid September.

Given the main uptrend, this is a major correction named "wave 4", probably an "a-b-c-d-e" (or just an a-b-c).

Right now, we might be close to the bottom of "wave a".

NOTE: wait before entering the new uptrend named  "wave b" as there's still a chance of  a "sort of double bottom" for "wave a", meaning another little leg up to level 4825 - or even 4856 - followed by a small leg down to the area 4774-4751.

This is due to the number of waves in the 1-hour chart that still don't add up. In fact, there are only 3 waves down, out of the expected set of 5.

TARGETS

likely: area 5009-5004
possible: area 5033-5036
maybe: area 5085-5104

SETUP
wait till the number of waves downward - in the 1-hour chart - is completed (5 waves).

TRIGGER
wait for the signal from the wave oscillator in the 4-hour chart.

SPI200 weekly chart: click to enlarge

SPI200 daily chart: click to enlarge

SPI200 4-hour chart: click to enlarge

SPI200 1-hour chart: click to enlarge

EURUSD, resuming the downtrend

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD - now at 1.3024 - retraced almost exactly 61.8% in 5 waves (check on your 15 min chart) and it is now supposed to resume the main downtrend to 1.2445 and lower, unless it is stopped by the major support at 1.2886.

SITUATION

If this analysis is correct, the EURUSD is performing a downtrend by means of  5 waves minimum - see the weekly chat below - where wave 1 and 2 are already on the paper.

Note the last vertical line in black on the right hand side: if the 36 weeks cycle is repeated, the downtrend should start this week. 

TARGETS 

daily chart
DOWN

likely: area 1.2752-1.2744
possible:  the area 1.2658-1.2688

weekly chart
DOWN

likely: the area 1.2457-1.2520
possible: 1.2328

Note the cycles in the weekly chart below. Also, check the targets (blue horizontal lines).


weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

EURUSD, Head & Shoulder

Hi Traders,

The Head & Shoulder is a reliable reversal pattern. If you master the Elliott Waves you can identify the right entry points and targets to enhance the profitability of your trading in such a market condition.

SITUATION

With the violation of this major support at 1.2886 the EURUSD - which now staged a H&S in the daily chart - will start the last major wave downward which might bring it to 1.19 and, under extreme conditions, to 1.12, target that I wouldn't dismiss at all.

If this analysis is correct, the resistance around the area 1.2899-1.2911 (or  maybe 1.2928-1.2935) should be a viable entry point for a juicy short, lasting weeks.  

TARGETS 

daily chart
DOWN

likely: area 1.2752-1.2744
possible:  the area 1.2658-1.2688

weekly chart
DOWN

likely: the area 1.2457-1.2520
possible: 1.2328

Note the cycles in the weekly chart below. Also, check the targets (blue horizontal lines).


weekly chart - click to enlarge

See the Head & Shoulder in the daily chart below

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

SPI200, a necessary ZigZag

Hi Traders

The SPI200 now at 4,985 took a big hit in the last few weeks. Although this happens all the time around the end of May, many ask whether this is the end of the uptrend.

THE REAL PICTURE

Check the weekly chart below. After the big slump occurred in Nov 07-Mar 09, the SPI200 performed major-wave-1 up and major-wave-2 downward (in bold grey, font 15). It's now trying to unfold major-wave-3 to the area 5,469-5,572.

But hold your horses.

weekly chart - click to enlarge

To be able to develop major-wave-3 the index needs a system of 5 waves, 3 of which are already on the paper (1-2-3 in blue). 

Now, every Elliott guy knows that the next wave (wave 4) could be a boring long term ZigZag (or 5-3-5) between the previous major top and the area at 4,569-4,459. 

This Zig-Zag will be followed by the resume of the last wave up (wave 5).

All the blue horizontal lines in the weekly chart above are possible targets for wave 4, a zig-zag made of 3 to 5 waves. 

TIMING

Wave 4 in the weekly chart above might end around September 13-16 followed by the start of the final uptrend (wave 5).


SHORT TERM SITUATION

In the daily chart below, this very first downtrend must be completed in 5 waves. We just started the small retracement-wave-4 to 5,004-5,009 an maybe higher (5,033-5,036).

Then wave 5 will resume downward to 4,888 and maybe 4,849.

Note: the target area marked by the blue horizontal lines. This is the target of the first impulse wave downward.



daily chart - click to enlarge

TARGETS

short pullback (wave 4 in the 4-hour chart) to

likely: area 5,004-5,009
possible: 5,033-5,036

then

short downtrend (wave 5 in the 4-hour chart) to 

likely: 4,907-4903
possible: 4,888-4,849

Target area even clearer (the targets) in the 4-hour chart below


4-hour chart - click to enlarge