Friday, 26 July 2013

OIL reversing?

Hi Traders,

WTI Oil (now at 104.53) seems to be heading South having completed a full set of Elliott Waves up to 108.89.

At present the monthly and weekly charts show a significant breakout of a symmetric triangle to the upside, meaning the start of a new uptrend followed by a retracement (wave 1 & 2).

At present, this reversal (wave 2) is confirmed by some nice reversal candlesticks in both the weekly and daily charts.

Only in case this reversal is not limited to a mere retracement, the entire Elliott configuration would have to be redrawn.

TARGETS

likely: area 103.36-103.73
possibly: area 101.75-102.05
maybe: area 100.62-100.80

ELLIOTT WAVES

The waves in the monthly and weekly charts is depicted an "a-b-c" followed by  wave "1" which is the first wave upwards of a new uptrend. The retracement (wave 2) could go as far as 97.60 if the USD strengthens a bit.



monthly chart, click to enlarge



weekly chart, click to enlarge



daily chart, click to enlarge




 4-hour chart, click to enlarge



Wednesday, 24 July 2013

S&P 500. End of the line?

Hi Traders,

The S&P 500 is reaching some important cornerstones:

  • it entered the area 1690-1730, a target established long time ago
  • it almost reached a Gann Time Turning point (on a daily chart)
  • it almost completed the so called "5the of the 5th of the 5th"
If this analysis is correct (please compare with your own analysis) the S&P 500 might start a major correction, possibly within 2-4 trading days.

TARGETS:

up to the area 1690-1730 first
then
down to 1596 first, then 1530 and well below


ENTRY POINT
  • wait for the reversal candlestick in the 4-hour chart and in the daily chart
  • wait  for the 'wave oscillator' in 4-hour chart to give you a confirmation.
  • possibly, wait for the awesome oscillator to confirm as well.
ELLIOTT WAVES

Note - in the weekly chart below - the S&P500 almost completed the so called "5th of the 5th of the 5th"

GANN

Note the "Gann Grid" - in the daily chart - showing July 26th (in US time frame)




weekly chart, click to enlarge





daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge





 1-hour chart, click to enlarge



AUDUSD, forming the 5th leg down

Hi Traders,

If the AUDUSD stops below 0.9322 (as it seems) this would cause the currency to test again the previous low and move even lower.

TARGETS:

likely: 0.8997
possible: 0.8877
maybe: 0.8578

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows that the 5fh wave down is still missing. In the 4-hour and 1-hour chart the AUD seems on the way down to complete wave 5.


monthly chart, click to enlarge



weekly chart, click to enlarge



daily chart, click to enlarge




4-hour chart, click to enlarge




1-hour chart, click to enlarge






Thursday, 18 July 2013

EURUSD, showdown

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD failed to go through the major resistance at 1.32 and completed a 2-step pattern (1-2-3 upwards) as expected. If this analysis is correct the currency pair has exhausted its upwards energy and should start a downtrend.

TARGETS

likely: 1.2998 and the area 1.29923-1.29750
possibly: 1.28755 and 1.2818
maybe: area 1.2742-1.2754
medium term: area 1.2406-1.2389

ENTRY POINT

Don't entry unless the "Wave Oscillators" in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart show "permission to entry". Possibly, seek a confirmation from the Awesome oscillator in both time frames.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that the a-b-c-d should be followed by "wave e" a long way downwards, especially in case of breakout of the major supports at 1.24 and 1.19.

The weekly chart shows that after the top at 5d the EURUSD started 5 major waves downwards, wave 1 and 2 (in magenta) already in place and wave 3 starting on.

The daily chart  confirms that after the top at 32 we also have 2 waves down and wave 3 just started.

The 4-hour chart shows the last top at 32 and that a wave downwards just started

NOTE: in the 4-hour chart that shows only the "wave oscillator" we have some "Top Cusps" showing a moderate reversal. However, the red lines are not touching yet or not close enough to give you "the go". Furthermore, the Awesome oscillator is not down to zero yet.



monthly chart, click to enlarge




 daily chart, click to enlarge




daily chart, click to enlarge




daily chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge




 1-hour chart of the Wave Oscillator, click to enlarge





GBPUSD, perfect entry

Hi Traders,

The GBPUSD, now at 1.5196, bounced back on the main resistance at 1.52685 and seems to be willing to start a long downtrend. If this analysis is correct we are right on top of the perfect entry point. 

The fact that the EURUSD shows the same patterns and symptoms makes me suspicious, meaning that the GBPUSD might follow the Euro downwards.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.4853-1.4778
possible: area 1.4552-1.4542
maybe: 1.4345
longer term: 1.4053-1.3931

ENTRY POINT

Wait for wave oscillator in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart to confirm.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The GBPUSD monthly chart shows an a-b-c-d in red, meaning that "wave e" is on his way down. See 1-2 in magenta and 1-2 in red color, meaning that both wave 3 in magenta and in red are going to be downtrends.

The weekly chart shows a periodicity of 21-22 weeks, the last two vertical bars on the right coinciding perfectly with the start of the new downtrend.

The daily chart shows the GBPUSD touching the resistance at 1.51685 and the 4-hour chart shows the last 1-2-3 upwards (two-step pattern) which is usually followed by a new downtrend.

Note the 4-hour chart with the "wave oscillator" only:  the black lines are ready to move outside and the red inside (line swap), meaning downtrend.


Monthly chart, click to enlarge



Weekly chart, click to enlarge



Daily chart, click to enlarge



4-hour chart, click to enlarge




4-hour chart, click to enlarge




 1-hour chart, click to enlarge






Wednesday, 17 July 2013

AUDUSD retracement

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD, now at 0.9210, is taking a pause in its dive and it is heading North. This is likely to occur with a 3 wave retracement (two-step pattern).

TARGETS

likely: 0.9523
possible: area 0.9742-0.9764
maybe: area 0.9959-0.9985

ENTRY POINT

Around the area 0.916-91.8. But wait for the "Wave Oscillator" (in the 1-hour chart) to give you the "go" and for the Awesome oscillator (in the same  1-hour chart) to confirm.

To exit the trade wait for the "Wave Oscillator" (in the 4-hour chart) to take you out.

If you trade for the long run and you keep your trades going for few days, wait for the "Wave Oscillator" (in the 4-hour chart) to give you the "go" and for the Awesome oscillator (in the same  4-hour chart) to confirm.

To exit the trade wait for the "Wave Oscillator" (in the daily chart) to take you out.

ELLIOTT WAVES

As you can see by the weekly chart below, the AUDUSD is shaping an a-b-c-d-e (in magenta). Leg "e" should  unfold by means of a downtrend made of 5 waves. This retracement will be labelled "wave 2" (not labelled at present). 

But don't be fouled: after bouncing back (maybe up to the parity), it should resume the downtrend well below 0.90.


Weekly chart. Click to enlarge



Daily chart. Click to enlarge



4-hour chart. Click to enlarge




 1-hour chart. Click to enlarge



Wednesday, 19 June 2013

GBPUSD, two-step pattern

Hi Traders,

The GBPUSD has almost completed a quite large two-step pattern upwards - see daily chart -, a retracement upwards named 5-3-5 by Elliott.

SITUATION

The Pound is expected to rally to the area 1.5826-1.5911 to complete the two-step pattern  - see daily chart - where it should reverse to start a major downtrend.

TARGETS

Daily chart: the area 1.5826-1.5911. Then a new downtrend to well below 1.50
NOTE: if the downtrend stops at the support around 1.5412, this would change radically the wave scenario


Monthly chart. Click to enlarge




Weekly chart. Click to enlarge




Daily chart. Click to enlarge




4-hour chart. Click to enlarge






1-hour chart. Click to enlarge







WTI OIL, new high

Hi Traders,

On my post on May 23rd the OIL was expected to reach the area 91.82-92.21. It reached 91.26 and bounced back as expected.

After that low, it started a rally in 5 waves, 2 of them completed already and  the 3rd one seems on its way to the area 103.31-104.

TARGETS

4-hour chart: area 100.11-101.06
daily chart: area: 101.62-102.05 and 103.36-103.73
weekly chart: area 103.31-104.00 and area 108.39-109.08

SITUATION

Theoretically the OIL is moving within a symmetric triangle - see monhtly chart. This time we may see a breakout of the upper boundary ... whatever Ben Bernanke is going to say. 


Monthly chart - click to enlarge




Weekly chart - click to enlarge




Daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge







Monday, 17 June 2013

Gold update

Hi Traders,

Gold seems to be close to the target at 1321.6-1308. If it bounces back on that support there could be a $200 pull back or even the start of a new major uptrend.

TARGETS

4-hour chart and 1-hour chart:

Gold - now at 1390 - is climbing to the area 1392.6-1392.4 and maybe to 1400-1401.6.

Daily chart:

Then it should resume the very last downtrend to the area 1321.6-1308 (daily chart) where it would complete a major a-b-c.

The daily chart shows the 5 waves that forms major wave c as well as the target in the area 1321.6-1308.6.

This low should be followed by a first rally to 1553.7 and the area at 1616.7-1630.1.



weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Saturday, 15 June 2013

AUDUSD, right on target

Hi Traders,

last month I said that the main target was around the support at 0.9380. The AUDUSD reached 0.9325 and bounced back.

SITUATION

Check the 4 chart: the Aussie reached the major support with 5 smaller waves and bounced back to 0.9665.

TARGETS

Short term (4-hour & 1-hour chart)

The AUDUSD is expected to retrace to the area 0.9558-0.9544 (1-hour chart),  then the uptrend should resume to the area 0.9764-0.9742.

Medium term (daily chart)

This initial pullback is part of a major "two-step pattern", a 3 waves pattern  upwards that should finally take the AUDUSD to the area 0.9959-1.0010.

Long term (weekly chart)

Around the parity, the downtrend should resume to 0.8877 and 0.8578 

weekly chart - click to enlarge



daily chart - click to enlarge



4-hour chart - click to enlarge



1-hour chart - click to enlarge