Overall Picture

Hi Traders

Below a comparison of 3 indices, 2 commodities and 3 currencies. Apologies for the amendments to yesterday's analysis but I needed to be more precise.

INDICES

The FT100 (below) is sometimes the index that "displays earlier" than the SPI200. The weekly chart shows a pattern of 4 waves out of 5.

If this is not a simple wave 4 but the start of a wider retracement,

the incoming top should end below the resistance at 6862 and then drop well below 6000 in 3-5 waves (a-b-c- or a-b-c-d-e).

Conversely, if it breaks the resistance at 6862 it should reach level 7,000.

FT100 weekly

FT100 daily

The S&P500 (below) hasn't made any absolute top yet. It actually performed only 3 waves out of 5 (weekly chart).

It is now unfolding the "retracement wave  4" (an a-b-c-d-e) that should go through the lower line of the channel (in both weekly & daily charts).

If this analysis is correct, the last wave of this a-b-c-d-e (wave e) might cut deeply through the lower line of the channel.

S&P500 weekly

S&P500 daily

The SPI200 (below), now touching a main resistance, started retracement wave 4 where wave "b" is almost completed.

After this top ("b"), wave 4 will form an a-b-c heading to 4900, 4700 and maybe 4560-4550.

SPI200 weekly

SPI200 daily

COMMODITIES

The WTI OIL displays an uptrend of 3 waves up (out of 5) and it's now sitting  on the resistance at 110.31.

If this is the top of wave 3 there will be an a-b-c correction or even an a-b-c-d-e to the areas 100.86-100.41 and 98.29-97.35.  

WTI OIL weekly

WTI OIL daily

Gold displays 5 waves downwards followed by a rally (wave 1). If this is true, it should retrace to 1306 to complete wave 2. This should be followed by a rally to 1447-1462 as a minimum.

Gold weekly

Gold daily

CURRENCIES

The USDJPY is really interesting: after the breakout upwards and the subsequent retracement (not finished), it seems to be ready for level 105.3 and higher.

USDJPY weekly

USDJPY daily

The USDSGD (below) made a double top and it's now heading to 1.25. Then the situation will need to be re-assessed as the uptrend should resume.

USDSGD weekly

USDSGD daily

The AUDUSD (below) is in full upswing. It's now heading to 0.9511-0.9529 and possibly 0.9691-0.9716.

AUDUSD weekly

AUDUSD daily

AUDUSD double top

Hi Traders,

Double top on the 1-hour chart that should take the AUDUSD (now at 0.9155) to 0.9090 and possibly lower. However, this is largely expected as the Aussie completed the first set of 5 waves up (of a very minor grade) and we are witnessing only a temporary pullback (wave 2 of a very minor grade).

TARGETS

likely: 0.9090
possibly: area 0.9073-0.9058 and area 0.9047-0.9039
maybe: around 0.90034

NOTE

Below, I published only the 4-hour and 1-hour charts. For more info please refer to my previous post about AUDUSD as that analysis is still current.




4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDJPY new trend

Hi Traders,

USDJPY, now at 99.63,  finally broke the upper line of the triangle displayed in the daily chart and started the new uptrend which should take it to 105 and 122.

TARGETS

likely: 105.31
possibly: 120. 17
maybe: 122.30


ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays a nice a-b-c followed by waves 1 & 2. Wave 3 (upwards) just started.

ENTRY

The wave oscillator shows an imminent pullback in the 1-hour chart. Wait for that before getting in.



monthly chart - click to enlarge 

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD, rebound

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD, now on the resistance at 0.9120, closed last week with a double bottom (1-hour chart) and started this week with a rally and a gap upwards.

If it breaks the upper line of the channel (daily chart) it should take the AUDUSD to the area 0.9511-0.9529 and possibly 0.9691-0.9716.

TARGETS

likely:0.9317-0.9326
possibly: area 0.9511-0.9529
maybe: area 0.9691-0.9716

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly & weekly chart display an a-b-c-d-e which should be followed by a new rally in 3 waves (two-step pattern).

ENTRY POINT

Wait for the imminent pullback and check the wave oscillator in the 1-hour chart before taking your position.



monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

SPI200, new highs

Hi Traders,

The SPI200 (now at 5185) opened with a gap and seems to be heading north, maybe to the area 5483-5408. It's now hovering around our previous target area 5166-5199 (see weekly chart) and might have a short pullback soon (1-hour chart).

TARGETS

likely: area 5483-5408

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that this is part of wave 5 (in blue) that might end in Oct-Nov, as usual. The daily chart is set to have 9 waves up and it's now enfolding wave 7 in 5 smaller waves (in green, font 8).



monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour  chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

EURGBP

Hi Traders,

The EURGBP (now at 0.8528) is still on the way down to the area 8422-8408 and lower.

TARGETS

likely: area 0.8515
possibly: 0.8467-8459
maybe: 0.8422-8408


ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays and a-b-c-d-e followed by wave 1 and 2. We expect "wave 3" as a minimum.

ENTRY POINT

The EURGBP made a double bottom recently in the 1-hour chart. Hence, there might be a temporary pullback.

NOTE

The Pound is heavily manipulated by the BOE and it's traded by expert traders on the London floor. Hence, be careful.



monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

EURUSD dive

Hi Traders,

Exceptional economic data in US and the perspective of the QE3 tampering  (not to mention the Syria matter) has revved up the US dollar against all major currencies and commodities.

If the Euro dives through the area 1.3205-1.3172 it might have a long way to go, as announced few times in the last month.

However, I believe that Mr. Mario Draghi and Mrs Christine Lagarde might sell some of the Euro reserves to keep the currency from falling too quickly, and this include the AUD and the SGD.

Meaning: they would short AUDUSD (target: 0.8578-0.8510) and USDSGD (target: 1.2576-1.2557) to long EURUSD. Hence keep an eye on them.

TARGETS

likely: area1.3205-1.3172

possibly: 1.3045-1.3021

maybe: area 1.2777-1.2742

ELLIOTT WAVES

The Euro stared "wave e" (daily chart) that should take it to 1.27 or lower.

ENTRY

Theoretically, I might bounce back to 1.3266 or even to the area 1.3276-1.3280. One of them could be your ideal entry point (check the 1-hour chart).

Always wait for the confirmation of the "wave oscillator" in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.

WARNING

The volatility, the volume and the open interest (futures & options) are supposed to rise, augmenting the risk of being stopped out. Hence, choose carefully your entry point.


monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour  chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over 1-hour chart - click to enlarge