Tuesday, 11 March 2014

EURGBP & USDJPY

Hi Traders,


Here is a couple of nice setups supported by a trigger of the wave oscillator.

Both EURGBP (now at 0.8333) & USDJPY (now at 103.35) should start a nice uptrend. The former to 0.8549-0.8575 and the latter to 106.81.

EURGBP

ELLIOTT WAVES

The EURGBP started the 5th of the 5th with a 1-2 (in green) on a very large scale (major waves 1-2-3-4 started in May 2000 at 0.5682).

TARGETS

likely: 0.8549-0.8575
possibly: 0.8575
maybe: 0.9254



EURGBP daily - click to enlarge




EURGBP: wave oscillator overimposed to a daily chart - click to enlarge



USDJPY

ELLIOTT WAVES

The USDJPY started the 5th of the 5th with a 1-2 (in green).

TARGETS

likely: 105.43-105.83
possibly:106.81-107.33
maybe:108.44-108.71


USDJPY daily - click to enlarge





USDJPY: wave oscillator overimposed to a daily chart - click to enlarge




Sunday, 2 March 2014

EURUSD topping?

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.3800) hit the resistance at 1.3824 as well as the upper line of the triangle - see weekly chart below. Although there's still some potential for a "throw over" till 1.3856, the currency should reverse soon to 1.35 and lower.

TARGETS

likely: 1.3489-1.3458
possibly: 1.3264-1.3249
maybe: 1.2993-1.2967

ELLIOTT WAVES

After a gigantic a-b-c-d the EURUSD performed 5 waves down (wave 1 in the weekly chart) and a retracement up with a two-step pattern (wave 2 in the weekly chart).

The daily chart and the 4-hour chart below show waves 1 & 2 (in red). The top of the latter should be the prelude to the new downtrend.

Theoretically, this should be a 5 waves pattern leading well below the area at 1.2396-1.2329 if the Euro breaks through the major support at 1.2993-1.2967.





Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge





 Daily chart, click to enlarge





Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge







Friday, 28 February 2014

S&P 500 Topping?

Hi Traders,

S&P 500 now at 1854.00

The major uptrend of the S&P 500 - started on March 6th 2009 at level 665.09 - might be topping soon due to a 5 years Time Turning Point (TTP) expiring around March 3-7th, 2014.

Furthermore

The above TTP coincides with the 36-37 weeks TTP described in weekly chart below (see the red vertical lines).

This TTP also coincides with the 36-37 days TTP described in daily chart below (see the red vertical lines)

TARGETS

Gann theory suggest a top at 1895.
Fibonacci calculations suggest a top in the area 1895-1908.

Then down to the area 1409-1273.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Basically, next week we might witness the mighty "5th-of the 5th-of the 5th" followed by a major turnaround.

Check the weekly chart below. As the uptrend between March 2009 and March 2014 is nothing more then "major wave 1" made of 5 waves, this turnaround could be labelled major retracement wave 2.

NOTE:

In the weekly & daily  chartWave 5 - started with a low on Oct 2011 -  contains "an extension of an extension" within wave 5 of a smaller degree. Another extension occurred withing wave 3 - started on Sept 16, 2012.

According to Frost & Prechter this situation might cause Major wave 2 to be a steep correction.

Furthermore, according to the same source, a "normal" correction would stop "within the span of travel of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree" (area 1409-1273 in the weekly chart).

But when you have an extension within wave 5, the correction could reach the bottom of wave 2 at 1337, which BTW, happens to be right in the middle of the target area (see weekly chart).


FUNDAMENTALS

There doesn't seem to be any "fundamental" reason for such a retracement. Hence, a "political event" or a "natural disaster" might trigger the correction.

ie: Are the Russians going to claim Crimea from Ukraine?




S&P 500 - weekly chart - click to enlarge







S&P 500 - daily chart - click to enlarge





S&P 500 - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge




Thursday, 27 February 2014

S&P 500 topping?

Hi Traders,

S&P 500 now at 1854.00

The major uptrend of the S&P 500 - started on March 6th 2009 at level 665.09 - might be topping soon due to a 5 years Time Turning Point (TTP) expiring around March 3-7th, 2014.

Furthermore

The above TTP coincides with the 36-37 weeks TTP described in weekly chart below (see the red vertical lines).

This TTP also coincides with the 36-37 days TTP described in daily chart below (see the red vertical lines)

TARGETS

Gann theory suggest a top at 1895.
Fibonacci calculations suggest a top in the area 1895-1908.

Then down to the area 1409-1273.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Basically, next week we might witness the mighty "5th-of the 5th-of the 5th" followed by a major turnaround.

Check the weekly chart below. As the uptrend between March 2009 and March 2014 is nothing more then "major wave 1" made of 5 waves, this turnaround could be labelled major retracement wave 2.

NOTE:

In the weekly & daily  chartWave 5 - started with a low on Oct 2011 -  contains "an extension of an extension" within wave 5 of a smaller degree. Another extension occurred withing wave 3 - started on Sept 16, 2012.

According to Frost & Prechter this situation might cause Major wave 2 to be a steep correction.

Furthermore, according to the same source, a "normal" correction would stop "within the span of travel of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree" (area 1409-1273 in the weekly chart).

But when you have an extension within wave 5, the correction could reach the bottom of wave 2 at 1337, which BTW, happens to be right in the middle of the target area (see weekly chart).


FUNDAMENTALS

There doesn't seem to be any "fundamental" reason for such a retracement. Hence, a "political event" or a "natural disaster" might trigger the correction.

ie: Are the Russians going to claim Crimea from Ukraine?




S&P 500 - weekly chart - click to enlarge







S&P 500 - daily chart - click to enlarge





S&P 500 - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge




Monday, 24 February 2014

WTI OIL last wave up, for now

OUR ANALYSIS WILL SOON BE MOVED TO THE NEW WEBSITE. WE'LL KEEP YOU UPDATED

Hi Traders,

The WTI OIL (now at 102.52) is set to start the last jump to the area 103.73-104.32 before engaging in a  retracement to 100.71 and maybe to the area 99.21-98.83.

TARGETS:

first up to area 103.73-104.32
then down to:

likely: 100.71
possibly: area 99.21-98.83
maybe: area 97.82-97.23

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the completion of wave 4 around 91.30 and the nearly completion of wave1. The 4-hour chart shows 8 waves up out of 9 and so the 1-hour chart. Wave 9 should reach the area 103.73-104.32. Then we should have a reversal.





Weekly chart, click to enlarge





 Daily chart, click to enlarge





Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge






wave oscillator applied to the 4-hour chart, click to enlarge





1-hour chart, click to enlarge








Saturday, 15 February 2014

USDJPY perfect entry

Hi Traders,

The USDJPY (now at 101.78) did exactly as predicted.

Although another small drop to level 101.63-101.45 is still a possibility, it should start soon the very last major rally to 106.59 or higher.

TARGETS 

likely: 105.50
possibly: 106.59
maybe: area 107.55 -108.52

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the uptrend that started at the end of OCT 2011.

major waves up are clearly identifiable (in blue) but major wave 5 is not completed yet. 

The daily chart clearly displays 4 intermediate waves up out of 5.

The 5th wave up has just started with minuette wave 1 & 2, as you can see in the 4-hour chart.







monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge








1-hour chart - click to enlarge 






wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Thursday, 13 February 2014

USDGBP uptrend

Hi Traders,

It's not a mystery that the Pound is commonly named "the b...ch" by traders. It can be really tricky, you wouldn't disagree.

I have to confess that I was abit too complacent last night and I was stopped out.

But I am sort-of-excused as I witnessed too many irregular formations on the Pound in the last 5 years in terms of:
  • unusually complex retracement formations
  • unusual high number of double-triple tops and bottoms
  • uncommon number of broadening formations
In practice the GBPUSD gave me quite a hard time but, in positive terms, I think that this is part of my never-ending learning curve.

ANALYSIS

Although the GBPUSD (now at 1.6616) is heading to 1.6763-1.6820 and maybe 1.7045-1.7186, it might stage a limited retracement very soon.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.6763-1.6820
possibly: 1.6880
maybe: area 1.7045-1.7186

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show that this is the last wave up (wave 5). The daily chart shows that this is the 5th of the 5th. Hence: watch carefully the 4-hour and the 1-hour chart to spot the end of the trend.






monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge 





wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge



Tuesday, 11 February 2014

USD, strong again

Hi Traders,

As it often occurred in the past, I disagree with many traders. I believe that whatever the FED is going to say, the US$ is going strength. Meaning: the weakness of the USD is over and it's going to start a new rally.

Hence, here some of my findings

COMMODITIES

GOLD, now at 1284, should top around 1290-1300  and resume the downtrend
WTI OIL, now at 100.31, should top around 100.71 and resume the downtrend

MAJOR CURRENCIES

AUDUSD, now at 0.9025, should top around 0.9036 and resume the downtrend
EURUSD, now at 1.3667, should top around  1.3698-13700 and resume the downtrend
USDCHF, now at 0.8955, should resume the uptrend to 1.078 and over

INDICES

S&P500, now at 1802.75, should top around 1810 and resume the downtrend
DAX30, now at 9411.25, should top around 9,900-10,000 and resume the downtrend
FT100, now at 6605, should resume the downtrend straight away
SPI200, now at 5211, should resume the downtrend straight away

ps: apologies, no display of charts this time

Cheeers
Mario D. Conti

Thursday, 30 January 2014

GBPUSD ready to reverse

Hi Traders,

The GBPUSD stopped and reversed at 1.6668, a good "figure" short of my target at 1.6763-1.6810.

Although there's still a some potential for the very last jump up to the target at 1.6763-1.6810, that would be the Swan Song.

With or without jump, it's almost ready for a downtrend to the area 1.6127-1.6036 although the Wave Oscillator keeps warning to wait for a safe entry cross of the red lines.

TARGETS

first to 1.6763-1.6810 (maybe)

then

likely: 1.6127-1.6036
possibly: 1.6029-1.5963
maybe: 1.5859-1.5831


ENTRY

Entry only when the red lines of the wave oscillator cross. This is not happening in daily chart nor in the 4-hour chart.


ELLIOTT WAVES

Check the monthly chart. Theoretically the Pound is heading down to the area 1.60-1.58 and then back up to 1.70.

The weekly chart displays the target areas in green (calculated with the Fibonacci Queen Method) and blue (for simple Fibonacci calculations)

The daily chart shows the completion of 5 waves up. Note also the last 3 "doji" candles signalling weakness.

The 4-hour chart displays 5 complete waves up as well.




monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge 





wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge



Monday, 27 January 2014

USDJPY, last dive before the last rally

Hi Traders,

The USDJPY (now at 102.76 ) might soon take the last dive to the area 101.76-101.51 before starting the very last major rally to 106.59 or higher.

TARGETS 

first: down to 101.76-101.51

then up to

likely: 105.50
possibly: 106.59
maybe: area 107.55 -108.52

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the uptrend that started at the end of OCT 2011. 4 major waves up are clearly identifiable (in blue) but major wave 5 is not completed yet. 

The daily chart shows 4 intermediate waves although minor wave 4 won't be completed unless it reaches the area 101.76-101.51 (4-hour chart).







monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over the 4-hour chart - click to enlarge








1-hour chart - click to enlarge 






wave oscillator over the 1-hour chart - click to enlarge