Thursday, 8 May 2014

NZDUSD plunging

Hi Traders,

The  New Zealand dollar (now at 0.8656) plunged as the head of the country's Reserve Bank warned that the central bank might have to intervene in foreign exchange markets to weaken the currency.

This is confirmed by the Reversal candlestick in the daily chart and the Elliott Wave count in the Monthly, Weekly, daily and 4-hour charts


TARGETS:

likely: 0.8510-0.8477
possibly: 0.8081-0.8051
maybe: 0.7812



ELLIOTT WAVES

Quite simple: all charts show the completion of 5 waves up



CANDLESTICKS

Note the reversal "engulfing pattern" in the daily chart


THE WAVE OSCILLATOR

The wave Oscillator displays the typical Reversal Cusps. BTW, unless the NZDUSD plunges vertically, the W.O. should deliver an entry point only after a rebound.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge





 Daily chart, click to enlarge





Wave Oscillator on a daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge








1-hour chart, click to enlarge

Sunday, 4 May 2014

USDJPY defeating US reports

Hi Traders,

The USDJPY (now at 102.18) is heading towards the supports at 100.73-100.64 and 98.35-98.31 (see weekly chart) despite the best US unemployment report of the last 5 1/2 years.

TARGETS

likely: 100.73-100.64
possibly: 98.35-98.31
maybe: 96.86-96.77

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that wave 4 (in black, font 9) is not complete. After waves 1&2 (in green) we now started wave 3 to the theoretical target at  98.35-98.31, ie. the target within wave 4 of a smaller degree. Then the uptrend might resume.




monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge








1-hour chart - click to enlarge 



Monday, 14 April 2014

EURUSD perfect entry

Hi Traders,

After hitting 1.39052 with a triple top (see 1-hour chart) the EURUSD (now at 1.3843) got hammered by a gap at the opening on Monday 14. This occurrence might trigger a downtrend to 1.35 and 1.30.


TARGETS:

likely: 1.3719 - 1.3713 and 1.3671 - 1.3662
possibly: 1.3671 - 1.3662 and 1.3640 - 1.3635
maybe: 1.3470 - 1.3451


NOTE:

EURUSD and S&P 500 seem to be correlated lately. They both developed an orthodox top and started a "flat" with an irregular top higher than the orthodox top (wave 2 in green in the weekly chart).

TIMING:

The irregular top at 1.3955 was in perfect synch with the cycle of 20-21 weeks (wave 2 in green in the weekly chart).


ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows the orthodox top at 1.3298. The Irregular top brought in the picture the perfect confirmation of "the end of the line": a "throw over" of the upper line of the giant triangle accompanied by an absolute top at 1.3455 (see the weekly chart).

Both the throw over and the irregular top in the "flat" often occur after an extended wave. In this case the extension occurred within wave 3 of a "two-step pattern" (1-2-3).

The daily chart displays 7 waves up (in green, font 8) confirming that wave 2 (in red, font 9) is a retracement wave up, not an impulse wave.

The weekly chart shows the the last wave up (from 1 to 2 in magenta) is supposed to be a two-step pattern, i.e. a 1-2-3 only.



CANDLESTICKS

Note the reversal "Hammer" in the monthly chart


THE WAVE OSCILLATOR

Unless the EURUSD plunges vertically, the W.O. will deliver an entry point only after a rebound.


FUNDAMENTALS

The expectation and the subsequent implementation of an impending "European quantitative easing" could be the fundamental reason for this  downtrend.

It's about the time. ECB chairman Mario Draghi is 2.5 years late!




Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge





 Daily chart, click to enlarge





Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge








1-hour chart, click to enlarge


Wednesday, 9 April 2014

AUDUSD reversing?

Hi Traders,

Although I was expecting the AUDUSD to get to 0.9388 it  might have reached the top at 0.93656 and start reversing. It's now at 0.9350.

This new downtrend might take the Aussie down to 0.8578-0.8509 or even 0.8160-0.8067 in 5 waves.

NOTE:

There's still a chance of a last minute jump to 0.9388 before reversing.


ELLIOTT WAVES

As in the monthly chart, the AUDUSD as completed 4 waves out of 5 and started wave 5 downwards. Typically, this wave will be performed in 5 waves of a smaller degree.

At present we're staging the beginning of wave 5 downwards- see 1-hour chart


WAVE OSCILLATOR

Enter your trade only when you have a valid cross of the 2 inner lines in See the W.O. build on the daily chart. Remember to place your "trailing stop" according to the "instructions" from the wave oscillator.





monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge 



Sunday, 6 April 2014

EURUSD almost down to target, then rebound

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD (now at 1.3700) should bottom at 1.3662-1.3634 and rebound to 1.3740-1.3748 in the short term. Afterwards, the downtrend to 1.30 should resume.


TARGETS:

first down: 1.3662-1.3634
then up to: 1.3740-1.3748

then down again:

likely: 1.3489 - 1.3453
possibly: 1.3266 - 1.3182
maybe: 1.2993 - 1.2967


NOTE:

EURUSD and S&P 500 seem to be correlated lately. They both developed an orthodox top and started a "flat" with an irregular top higher than the orthodox top (wave 2 in green in the weekly chart).

TIMING:

The irregular top at 1.3955 was in perfect synch with the cycle of 20-21 weeks (wave 2 in green in the weekly chart).


ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows the orthodox top at 1.3298. The Irregular top brought in the picture the perfect confirmation of "the end of the line": a "throw over" of the upper line of the giant triangle accompanied by an absolute top at 1.3455 (see the weekly chart).

Both the throw over and the irregular top in the "flat" often occur after an extended wave. In this case the extension occurred within wave 3 of a "two-step pattern" (1-2-3).


CANDLESTICKS

Note the reversal "Hammer" in the monthly chart


THE WAVE OSCILLATOR

As expected, the WO didn't deliver any entry point for this short as it wasn't safe enough. It will happen when the next downtrend resumes.


FUNDAMENTALS

The expectation and the subsequent implementation of an impending "European quantitative easing" could be the fundamental reason for this  downtrend.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge





 Daily chart, click to enlarge





Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge





Tuesday, 1 April 2014

AUDUSD, resuming downtrend

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.9239) performed a double top (see 1-hour chart below) and resumed the downtrend to 0.8419-0.8303 and lower (see monthly chart).


TARGETS

likely: 0.8672
possibly: 0.8578-0.8509
maybe: 0.8419-0.8303

ELLIOTT WAVES

After point "d", the AUDUSD is staging a very long "wave e" (weekly chart) that could potentially take the Aussie to 0.81 in 5 waves. Four of these waves now seem to be completed (weekly chart).

At present we're staging the beginning of wave 5 - see 1-hour chart


WAVE OSCILLATOR

Enter your trade only when you have a valid cross of the 2 inner lines in the daily.

Remember to place your "trailing stop" according to the "instructions" from the wave oscillator.





monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge







daily chart - click to enlarge







wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge 




Thursday, 20 March 2014

SPI 200 plunging

Hi Traders,


Here is a nice setup supported by a trigger of the wave oscillator.
The SPI200 (now at 5327) is moving South to the targets displayed in the weekly chart below.


STOP LOSS

initially stop loss: 5486
then
trailing stop: 94 points

NOTE:

Drop your stop loss and set your trailing stop within few minutes.

TARGETS

likely: 4994-4953
possibly: 4836-4816
maybe: 4570-4563

ELLIOTT WAVES

As you can see in the monthly chart below The SPI200 performed wave 3 up followed by a double top with wave b. The latter will be followed by c, d and e on the way down. 




SPI200  monthly - click to enlarge




SPI200  weekly - click to enlarge




SPI200  daily - click to enlarge




SPI200 : wave oscillator overimposed to a daily chart - click to enlarge




SPI200  4-hour - click to enlarge




SPI200  1-hour - click to enlarge


Tuesday, 11 March 2014

EURGBP & USDJPY

Hi Traders,


Here is a couple of nice setups supported by a trigger of the wave oscillator.

Both EURGBP (now at 0.8333) & USDJPY (now at 103.35) should start a nice uptrend. The former to 0.8549-0.8575 and the latter to 106.81.

EURGBP

ELLIOTT WAVES

The EURGBP started the 5th of the 5th with a 1-2 (in green) on a very large scale (major waves 1-2-3-4 started in May 2000 at 0.5682).

TARGETS

likely: 0.8549-0.8575
possibly: 0.8575
maybe: 0.9254



EURGBP daily - click to enlarge




EURGBP: wave oscillator overimposed to a daily chart - click to enlarge



USDJPY

ELLIOTT WAVES

The USDJPY started the 5th of the 5th with a 1-2 (in green).

TARGETS

likely: 105.43-105.83
possibly:106.81-107.33
maybe:108.44-108.71


USDJPY daily - click to enlarge





USDJPY: wave oscillator overimposed to a daily chart - click to enlarge




Sunday, 2 March 2014

EURUSD topping?

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.3800) hit the resistance at 1.3824 as well as the upper line of the triangle - see weekly chart below. Although there's still some potential for a "throw over" till 1.3856, the currency should reverse soon to 1.35 and lower.

TARGETS

likely: 1.3489-1.3458
possibly: 1.3264-1.3249
maybe: 1.2993-1.2967

ELLIOTT WAVES

After a gigantic a-b-c-d the EURUSD performed 5 waves down (wave 1 in the weekly chart) and a retracement up with a two-step pattern (wave 2 in the weekly chart).

The daily chart and the 4-hour chart below show waves 1 & 2 (in red). The top of the latter should be the prelude to the new downtrend.

Theoretically, this should be a 5 waves pattern leading well below the area at 1.2396-1.2329 if the Euro breaks through the major support at 1.2993-1.2967.





Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge





 Daily chart, click to enlarge





Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge