Natural Gas - Major Pivot Point

Hi Traders

The end of the line for Natural Gas (now at 3601) is very much in sight. This sputtering downtrend is to be followed soon by a significant reversal that would mark the beginning of a major uptrend.

The 1-hour chart (in the link below) displays the sub-minuette waves 1 and 2 (in green, bottom right) as part of a group of 5 waves down that should be fully formed at the beginning of the week.

At weekly and daily level, this is the very end of a major A-B-C retracement.
Hence, expect a major reversal.

TARGETS

first down to the area 3515-3475
then up to the area 4163-4187

for images please check on https://www.tradingview.com/x/kTQ7LKkd/
or
Natural Gas Major Pivot Point by mariodconti

GOLD triple bottom

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1241) has made a triple bottom around 1183 (see weekly chart and daily chart) and started a corrective rally as usual. At this stage, there's still no sign of  the typical set of waves that mark the end of the major downtrend started in Sept 2011.

Hence, Gold should make a new top in the area 1249-52 or even 1263-64 before resuming the downtrend to the area 1164-1154 and lower. HOWEVER, please read the "NOTE" below: there could be a surprise.


TARGETS

first up to
likely: area 1249-52
possibly: area 1257-60
maybe: 1268-69

then down to
likely: area 1164-1154
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)



ELLIOTT WAVES

GOLD is almost done with the very minor wave 4 upwards (1-hour chart and 4-hour chart). The new wave down following this temporary top should form the smaller wave 5 of the larger wave 3 (daily chart).

This little wave 5 should break through the support at 1182-83 and move down to the first of the targets above  mentioned (area 1164-1154). 

By The Way:

NOTE:

If the present rally tops much higher than predicted (at 1290-93 or even 1318-21, quite possible), then the wave count will need a re-assessment.

If this scenario occurs wave 3 (bottom right of the daily chart) will also take the name of "wave d" and this would extend target of the recent uptrend up to  1290-1321 to form "wave e".

"Wave e" would be followed by the very last leg down - in 5 smaller waves - to form the historical low (major wave 4, weekly chart) at 1064-1054, $1089 or $1043-$1032 and will mark the end of the 3 years downtrend.

Hence, if this scenario materialises, GOLD would need few more weeks to reach the bottom of major wave 4 (up to the last week of Dec 14).

The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable. 

If all this is true, a very major uptrend should then follow.






Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

USDJPY retracement

Hi Traders,

The a-b-c downtrend of the USDJPY (now at 107.52) should end in the area 106.80-106.62. It should be followed by a retracement up to the area 108.53-108.86 where the downtrend should resume once more.

TARGETS:

First down to: 106.80-106.62
Then up to:
likely: 108.31
possibly: 108.53-108.55
maybe: 109.11 - 109.13

ELLIOTT WAVES

The pattern in the making after Oct 1, 2014 is a big a-b-c retracement following a 9-waves-uptrend started on Oct 31, 2011 (see monthly chart and weekly chart).

If this is correct, the whole correction process might take up to 12 months to get the USDJPY down to 0.9830 area. That low should mark the end of wave 2 of a very major degree (see monthly chart).




Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD back to 0.90?

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8867) has made a double bottom around 0.8660 and seems to be heading to 0.90.

The monthly and weekly chart display the double bottom and the support at 0.8660. The daily chart shows all the possible Fibonacci targets (blue horizontal lines).

TARGETS

T1: 0.8923-0.8935
T2: 0.8975
T3: 0.8997-0.9000
T4: 0.9068-0.9073
T5: 0.9109-0.9119

ELLIOTT WAVES

To understand the situation of the Elliott Waves we need to see the weekly chart. According to Ralph Elliott, every MAJOR WAVE 4 always ends within the territory of another WAVE 4 of a MINOR DEGREE (in the blue quadrant). In this case, the target was in the area 0.9405-0.8066.

The AUDUSD bottomed right in the middle at 0.86419. It has deployed 5 waves - daily chart -  and the last one was made of 5 waves itself - 4-hour chart.

A question arises: is this really the bottom of major wave 4? I wouldn't be so sure. Let's say that the last sharp drop in the weekly chart looks very much like an unfinished job. After this new uptrend, the Aussie might still display its  potential to drop to 0.83 and maybe much lower.

CONSEQUENTLY

If this new uptrend occurs in 3 waves only (daily chart) - possibly below 0.91800 - this could be a sign that it is a just a temporary retracement.




Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

GOLD to rebound

Hi Traders

GOLD (now at 1198) has reached the target at 1182 and it's now supposed to rebound to 1226 and higher

TARGETS:

First up to

likely: 1226
possibly: 1231-32
maybe: 1241-43

Then down to
likely: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)

ELLIOTT WAVES

GOLD is bouncing back up to form the very minor wave 4 in the 1-hour chart and 4-hour chart.

Then Gold might finally sink to a new "historical low" at 1064-1054 or $1089. The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to forecast a low at $1050.

This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable. 

This final wave would be the "5th of the 5th of the 5th" in the 1-hour chart and 4-hour chart. It would also complete major wave 4 in the weekly chart. If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow.






Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator - daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

TRADING TARGETS

Hi Traders,

Below my revised targets:


SPI200 (now at 5319)
likely: 5392-5407
possibly: 5472
maybe: 5497-5509


AUDUSD (now at 0.8758)
likely: 0.85180
possibly: 0.8419
maybe: 0.8303


EURUSD (now at 1.25131)
likely: 1.2396 - 1.2329
possibly: 1.2031-1.1947


USDJPY (now at 109.747)
likely: 110.53 - 111.86
possibly:113.63 - 113.81
maybe: 114.96 - 115.67


GOLD (now at 1190.64)
likely: 1164.30 - 1154.85
possibly:1089.00
maybe: 1043.04 - 1032.25


No charts displayed today

TARGETS of CURRENCIES & INDICES

Hi Traders

My apologies: I got some forecast wrong. Below my revised targets:


SPI200 (now at 5319)
likely: 5392-5407
possibly: 5472
maybe: 5497-5509


AUDUSD (now at 0.8758)
likely: 0.85180
possibly: 0.8419
maybe: 0.8303


EURUSD (now at 1.25131)
likely: 1.2396 - 1.2329
possibly: 1.2031-1.1947


USDJPY (now at 109.747)
likely: 110.53 - 11186
possibly:113.63 - 113.81
maybe: 114.96 - 115.67

No charts displayed today

AUDUSD retracing soon?

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AUDUSD - ANALYSIS

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8801) reached exactly the area predicted and it should stage a retracement to 0.8926-0.8929 and higher.

NOTE: be careful as the 1-hour and 4-hour charts don't show any major reversal candlestick yet. Meaning that we have no confirmation and the Aussie has still some potential to reach the area at 0.8728-0.8709 before starting the retracement in parole.


TARGETS:

T1: the area 0.8926-0.8929.
T2: the area 0.8977-0.8996
T3: the area 0.9072-0.9083
T4: 0.9111

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays 5 minor waves downwards. This is the completion of 1 of 5 waves downwards.

In the 1-hour chart " all waves seem to be in place but I suspect that there could be a last moment surprise if the very last leg down develops a mini-extension downwards.




Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

GOLD bouncing back

Hi Traders,

Gold has been trending down since September 2011. Is there a chance of hitting an absolute minimum in the upcoming months? Are we on the verge of  new major uptrend?

If you want to take advantage of The Next major GOLD uptrend come to my presentation in Sydney on Wednesday,September 24 for $15 only.

For more info check on SYDNEY TRADERS. To pay for your booking CLICK HERE.

GOLD - ANALYSIS

The Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) is supposed to be implemented from Monday Sept 29. Theoretically, from this day on, each of the 20 signatory banks - as well as the ECB - should stop selling Gold for sometimes.

However, there's the chance for some persistence of the bearish market till mid October due to the side effects of the termination of the quantitative easing.  The combination of these events is likely to bring weakness to both Stocks & Commodities, included Gold.


CONCLUSION

Gold,  now at $1225 is bouncing back to 1241-43 and even 1248-51 to form the minor wave 4 (see targets in the 1-hour and 4-hour chart) which would soon be followed by another leg down to 1180-82 and maybe 1164-54.

ELLIOTT WAVES

By using the Elliott Waves you can reasonably pinpoint a bottom or a top if you know how to label the waves correctly.

In the case in parole, Gold might finally sink to a new "historical low" at 1064-1054 or $1089. The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to forecast a low at $1050.

This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable. If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow.

TARGETS:

first up to

T1: 1234-36
T2: 1248-51
T2: 1257-60

then down to the area 1180-82, followed further down by

T1: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
T2: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
T3: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)




Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator - daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Gold rebounding a bit

Hi Traders,

Gold has been trending down since September 2011. Is there a chance of hitting an absolute minimum in the upcoming months? Are we on the verge of  new major uptrend?

If you want to take advantage of The Next major GOLD uptrend come to my presentation in Sydney on Wednesday,September 24 for $15 only.

For more info check on SYDNEY TRADERS. To pay for your booking CLICK HERE.

GOLD - ANALYSIS

As I said in my previous newsletters, after the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) on May 19, the message from the 21 European Central Banks is very clear: European gold sales are almost over.

I also said that this is supposed to happen only after September 27, 2014 when the fourth CBGA is going to be enforced. Note that the FED quantitative easing is supposed to end around mid October 2014 as well. This is likely to bring weakness to both Stocks & Commodities and strengthen the USD for a short time.


CONCLUSION

Gold (now at $1235.00) reached the target at 1226 as predicted (see daily chart) and might rebound to 1252 and the area $1266-69 to form wave 4 (see targets in the 4-hour chart). This would soon be followed by another leg down to the area 1211.71-1207.97 and lower.

ELLIOTT WAVES

There's a good chance for Gold to finally sink to a new "historical low" at 1064-1054 or a bit further down to $1089 and the area $1043-$1032. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to a forecast of $1050 as a primary low.

This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable.
If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow.

TARGETS:

first up to 1252 and maybe the area $1266-69

then down to
T1: the area 1211.71-1207.97
T2: the area 1179-1180

followed by
T1: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
T2: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
T3: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)




Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Four-hour chart - click to enlarge

One-hour chart - click to enlarge

AUDUSD as predicted

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AUDUSD - ANALYSIS

The AUDUSD (now at 0.9129) did exactly as predicted. After getting up to level 0.94 it tanked to 0.9111 and bounced back up to 0.9217. Here the major downtrend resumed. Although another small rally to 0.9236-38 is still possible, the closest target downwards is now 0.9085 and the area 0.9005-0.8997.




TARGETS:
T1: 0.9085 and the area 0.9005-0.8997.
T2: the area 0.8892-0.8869.
T3: the area 0.8578-0.8509
T4: the area 0.8420-0.8300.

ELLIOTT WAVES

In the monthly chart (and in the weekly chart) "wave 5" downwards is in the making as the Aussie is pointing down to 0.9086 and below (long term trend).

In the 1-hour chart " Wave 1 and 2 - of a lower degree - are completed. Wave 3 is being traced.

The most likely targets appear to be the area 0.8578-0.8509 and the area 0.8420-0.8300. See monthly chart and weekly chart



Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

EURGBP

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EURGBP - ANALYSIS

The EURGBP (now at 0.7931) is set to reach a temporary top around 0.8155 and maybe 0.8227. Then it should resume the downtrend to the area 0.7693 - 0.7615.

NOTE: The BOE may stop the fall of the Euro if it breaches the support at 0.7500-0.7445. If this doesn't happen, the Euro may reach level 0.69-0.68.


TARGETS:

Topping soon at
likely: around 0.8155 
possibly: around 0.8227

Then down to:

likely:  0.7693
possibly: 0.7615



ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart and weekly chart display a huge a-b-c-d-e, where "wave e" should be made out of 5 smaller waves. Waves 1-2-3 are already there and wave 4 is still in formation. The daily chart displays the start of wave 4 to 0.8155-0.8227.




Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge