Friday, 6 February 2015

Euro downtrend to resume

Hi Traders,

The Euro bottomed at 1.10966 and missed my target for a whisker (1.1091-1.1062). Then it rebounded to 1.15332.

It should now resume the downtrend to finally touch down in the area 1.0917-1.0759. Afterwards, we should see some good rally unless bad news come from Greece and Ukraine.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.0917-1.0759
possibly: area 1.0344-1.0419
maybe: 1.0104-1.0206


ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart below displays all the targets. Wave "e" is not fully displayed because the 1-hour chart is still waiting for one more wave down to the area 1.0917-1.0759.

NOTE: if any bad news comes to the stage we may see the Euro starting an extension that could take it easily below the parity.




monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Monday, 2 February 2015

SPI 200 TOPPING AROUND 5600?

Hi Traders,

In my view the SPI 200 (now at 5572) is performing the fourth leg of a "Flat" pattern (daily chart) that could top just above 5600. If this is true, the subsequent leg of the flat - wave e - should take the form of a new downtrend to 5000-5100.

TARGETS

first up to
likely: 5583-5594
possibly: 5609

Then down to
likely: 5166-5147
possibly: 5108-5089

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays 3 major ways up (in blue, font 11), as it should be. Major wave 3 is almost completed. The daily chart shows the flat a-b-c-d which should be followed by a downtrend to 5166-5147 to form "wave e" as well as "wave 4" down (e4).

NOTE

The new wave "e4" can potentially move down to the area 4993-5019 (weekly chart).




monthly chart - click to enlarge






weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Meetup Reminder

Hi Traders,

We have a trading meetup in Sydney on Wednesday 04 Feb, 10.45 am. Please  check on 

http://www.meetup.com/SydneyTrading/

http://www.meetup.com/SydneyTraders/

Mario D. Conti

Thursday, 29 January 2015

USDJPY to top soon?

Hi Traders,

The long running uptrend of USDJPY (now at 117.91) - that started on OCT 31 2011 - could finally come to an end by topping in the area 124-126.

This should be followed by a retracement to the area around 111-109.


TARGETS

first up to:

likely: area 123.734-124.088
possibly: area 124.797-125.683
maybe: 125.759-126.330

then down to:

likely: 115.759-114.962
possibly: 111.683-111.329
maybe: 108.898


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show that wave 9 is approaching the target. In the daily and 4-hour charts this would be wave 13.

In the 4-hour and 1-hour charts note wave 1 and 2 which mark the beginning and the end of the triangle. They will be followed by 3 wave up to the target.




monthly chart - click to enlarge








weekly chart - click to enlarge








daily chart - click to enlarge








4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge







Tuesday, 27 January 2015

AUDUSD to stop at 0.78?

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD needs another little dive just below the 0.78 area before finding some temporary strength to start a trading range between 0.78 and 0.837

TARGETS

first down to

likely: 0.7800
possibly: 0.7693-0.7676

then trading range between 0.78 and 0.837

ELLIOTT WAVES

Weekly and daily charts indicate that the Aussies dollar has almost completed wave 3 (out of 5). This "wave 3" of a major degree is made out of 5 little waves of a minor degree (see 4-hour and 1-hour charts). We still need "minor wave 5" to complete "major wave 3" down.

Then the AUDUSD should be able to bounce back and start the trading range above mentioned. This trading range could eventuate as an "a-b-c-d-e triangle".




monthly chart - click to enlarge








weekly chart - click to enlarge









daily chart - click to enlarge









4-hour chart - click to enlarge









1-hour chart - click to enlarge









   

Thursday, 22 January 2015

Gold New Top

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1289) should top around the area 1318.12-1320.71 (see daily chart) and start a new downtrend soon.

If this is just a retracement, the new downtrend should lead to the area 1240.41-1238.18 or even the area 1223.05-1221.45.

Conversely, if GOLD resumed the original downtrend, the yellow metal should finally bottom down at 1089 or a bit lower.

TARGETS

first up to (see weekly chart)

likely: area 1311.81-1313.67 
possibly: area 1318.12-1320.71
maybe: area 1333.23-1337.49

Then down to

1) If this is just a retracement:

support 1: 1257.81 -1254.96
support 2: 1240.41-1238.18
support 3: 1223.05-1221.45
support 4: 1203.31- 1201.47

2) If Gold resumed the original downtrend:

likely: 1089.05
possibly: 1043-1032

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows that we are approaching the top of "wave e" which is also the top of "major wave 4". A short  wave 5 downwards should unfold soon.

Note the 9 waves in the 4-hour chart and 1-hour chart

NOTE:

Some say that Silver bottomed down on Dec 1st and started a new major uptrend already. Hence, the above analysis would generate an inconsistency given the tight Gold-Silver correlation.

Definitively possible, but for the time being, I stick to my Elliott wave count which seem to be leading to a new major low soon.

FURTHERMORE

Some may find the wave labelling in the 4-hour chart and in the 1-hour chart "a bit too bold". Understandable, but it would make no difference. Other interpretations would probably lead to the same result: the start of a downtrend.




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge










Friday, 16 January 2015

WTI OIL, the last dive, for now

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL is set to perform the last dive to the area $42-$40 followed by a long trading range between the new low and $61-63.

TARGETS

likely: 42.04-43.14
possibly: 40.94-40.39

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and daily charts show that we are bottoming down by completing wave 3 (of 5) down to the above targets. The 4-hour and 1-hour charts show that it's a matter of hours for this to occur.

The new low at $42-$40 should be followed by the retracement wave 4 (weekly and daily charts), made out of 5 waves. It might unfold with a triangle or a similar formation, with the first leg reaching up the area at $61-$63.




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge



Thursday, 8 January 2015

WTI OIL bottoming soon

Hi Traders, Happy 2015!

The WTI OIL (now at $48.81) is performing a small rebound to $50-$52 before resuming the downtrend to the support area at $45-$42.

After reaching the new low, it should start a long trading range (months) with a top around $69-$70.

TARGETS:

first up to:
likely:$50.20-$50.29
possibly: $51.27-$51.75

then down to:
likely: $45.34-$44.65
possibly: $43.14-$42.04

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that wave 3 (in magenta) will be fully shaped only by reaching the target down to $45-$42. This will be followed by wave 4, an "a-b-c-d-e wave" that might take few months to reach the top at $69-$70.

The fact that wave 3 is not finished (weekly chart) is revealed in the 4-hour chart where wave 5 downwards still requires the small waves 4 and 5 (in green, font 8) to enfold and fully complete the pattern.

The 1-hour chart also confirms the same ongoing rebound (wave 4) that should lead up to the area around $50-$52 (wave 4). This wave will be followed by wave 5 down to the area $45-$42.

The completion of these 5 little waves in the 1-hour chart will complete wave 3 in the weekly chart.

All of this (1-hour chart) is likely to occur within a week or two.



weekly chart. click to enlarge






daily chart. click to enlarge






4-hour chart. click to enlarge






1-hour chart. click to enlarge

Monday, 24 November 2014

The Swiss referendum on Gold

Hi Traders,

Please read about Swiss referendum on gold reserves. Very interesting.
http://snbchf.com/2014/09/ron-paul-swiss-gold-referendum/

If the Swiss people see this "gold-guaranteed-Switzerland" as a good business, they will go for it.

Besides, there's a precedent that speaks out loudly: since 1968, Switzerland enormously treasured from the world inflation by getting a huge capital inflow that lasted decades.

This in turn, generated more wealth management for the banks and a lot more business for the country. 

This is a clear signal to the world that Switzerland is getting ready for the upcoming inflation and it's back into the good old role of "safe banking heaven" as usual.

Switzerland surprised me many times and may do it again, especially after the ongoing Real Estate Bubble caused by the peg to Euro.

Finally, as I said in my previous newsletters, after the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) on May 19,  the 21 European Central Banks stopped selling Gold

So, who is still selling Gold right now? Well, buckle up: volatility is coming soon.

Mario D. Conti



Monday, 17 November 2014

WTI OIL very last dive

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL (now at 75.00) is very close to the ultimate support around 72.40. I believe that the downtrend is very close to the end of the line. Expect strong volatility as the new uptrends starts over.

TARGETS

First down to the area around 72.40
then up to the area 85.46-85.88 (see daily chart)

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the a-b-c-d-e will be completed soon by reaching the area around 72.40 where a new uptrend should start shortly.

The 4-hour and 1-hour chart are clearly sounding the bell as OIL is staging the very last sub-minuette wave down to the target.




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge