Tuesday, 12 June 2018

Time to short the Aussie?

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.7615) is mocking up the Titanic as it seems to be ready to sink. Although there is still a chance for a small rally to the area  0.7638-42, it shows clear signs of extreme weakness and it might be heading to the 0.73 area sooner than later.


See the blue target lines in the weekly chart.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The monthly chart and the weekly chart show the completion of major wave 4 (in magenta) around Jan 26. That Pivot Point marked the start of major wave 5 downwards (not labelled yet).


The daily chart displays another wave 4 that topped around June 6. That Pivot Point marked the start of another wave 5 of a smaller degree, heading South as well 
(still, not labelled yet). Note the major support at 0.7500.

The 4-hours chart shows the composition of wave 4 and the short term target of the first leg of wave 5 
(not labelled yet) aiming to 0.7560




Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge





Wednesday, 23 May 2018

WTI OIL to top soon?

Hi traders,

The WTI OIL (now at 71.75) is loosing steam and might top soon. Although my target is still the area 74.91-77.13, it might actually top before 74.00

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows the giant a-b-c started in Feb 2016 where 
wave-c is almost completed. Wave-a and wave-b are fully deployed whilst wave-c is in the very final stage.

The monthly chart shows that t
his giant a-b-c is just a retracement wave up (wave four) of the downturn that started in July 2008. Once completed, it will stage an important correction to the South side.

As for the daily chart, i
t displays a 1-2-3-4 (in black). After that  another 1-2-3-4 (in green) highlights four waves of a smaller degree. Once wave five is completed, the whole pattern could reverse course.

Finally, check the arrow in the 4-hours chart: it highlights a candlestick pattern that usually occurs when a top is imminent.



Monthly chart. Click to enlarge





Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge





Wednesday, 4 April 2018

WTI OIL STILL HEADING SOUTH

Hi traders,

I am grinning as I got it right again. At present, the WTI OIL (now at 63.35) seems to be heading towards the 57.30 area as it's performing a retracement wave  (see my previous post). However, there is still a chance for a small jump to the area 64.15-64.64 before heading South.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows the giant a-b-c started in Feb 2016 where 
wave-c is in the making. Wave-a and wave-b are fully deployed whilst wave-c is still in the making. It could end in the 69.6-70.50 area or even the 74-77 area.

The monthly chart shows that t
his should be the last retracement wave (up) before the final dive (wave-5).

As for the daily chart, another smaller wave-4 is unfolding with an a-b-c on a much smaller scale. Wave-a and wave-b are already in place whilst wave-c is still in the making with a possible target down to 
57.30.

The 4-hours chart shows the target area of the possible rebound: 64.15-64.64 within the next few hours, whilst the 1-hour chart draws our attention to a possible intermediate target at 61.30-61.45.





Monthly chart. Click to enlarge





Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge





1-hour chart. Click to enlarge







Monday, 12 March 2018

Time to short the Euro?

Hi Traders,

As I said in my previous newsletter, the Euro bounced back a bit and then resumed the downtrend, probably to the 1.20-1.18 area and below. 


THE ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the Euro is unfolding a huge a-b-c retracement wave (since July 2008) where the last leg (wave-c) is supposed to be made out of 5 large waves down. 

Four of these five waves can be observed in their entirety on the monthly and weekly charts. Their deployment is complete.

Conversely, the formation of the fifth wave down has just begun, as you can see in the daily and 4-hours charts.

Besides, the weekly and daily charts display clearly the large a-b-c that formed wave-4, which in turn, is one of the large five waves above mentioned.

CONCLUSION:

Given the particular pattern, the Euro might take a sharp dive well below 1.20-1.18.







Monthly chart, click to enlarge








Weekly chart, click to enlarge








Daily chart, click to enlarge








4-hours chart, click to enlarge







Thursday, 1 March 2018

Gold doomed to fail?

Hi Traders,

Even the stones on the ground noticed that GOLD  (now at 1313) is inversely correlated to Bitcoin. When Gold topped at 1366 at the end of January,  Bitcoin bottomed at 6,981 at the very beginning of February.

Now that Bitcoin is moving up again (now at 10,427), Gold shows extreme weakness and it started a journey that should take it to 1301 and to the area 1251-1234 for a start.


CONCLUSION:

Although the XAUUSD is supposed to bounce back to 1330, overall it looks extremely bearish - see the daily chart - and might not be able to find a serious support before hitting 1239 or even the area 1178-1143 (see the weekly chart).


ELLIOTT WAVES

The identification of the Elliott Waves often poses some real challenges when it comes to some complex waves labelled by the purists "wyz-x-wyz".

For the time being, I prefer to avoid that fancy stuff and stick to the hypothesis of a wedge formation - see the weekly chart - that might require another low around 1200.

However, just bear in mind that, in the very long run, this kind of pattern has the potential to drag the yellow metal down to the area 882-845. See the targets in the monthly chart.

Want to see some fancy stuff? Check the supports on the 4-hours chart. Basically, there's a support every $11




Monthly chart, click to enlarge






Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge





Monday, 26 February 2018

WTI OIL to top soon?

Hi Traders,

The WTI OIL (now at $63.40) might top around 64.75-65.05 and temporarily reverse to the 57-55 area.




ELLIOTT WAVES


On the monthly chart, check the last red candlestick: it looks like an inverted hammer. This typical candle appears during the making of wave-4, which is the last retracement wave before the final rally (wave-5).


The weekly chart shows the giant a-b-c started in Feb 2016. It could end in the 69.6-70.50 area or even the 74-77 area.


As in the daily chart, another smaller wave-four is unfolding with an a-b-c where wave-a is already in place and wave-b is topping soon. This demonstrates that this is only a temporary retracement.


The 4-hours chart and the 1-hour chart draw our attention to the incoming target at 64.75-65.05.






Monthly chart. Click to enlarge









Weekly chart. Click to enlarge








Daily chart. Click to enlarge








4-hours chart. Click to enlarge








1-hour chart. Click to enlarge






Tuesday, 20 February 2018

The Australian Dollar next move

Hi Traders,

Although another small rally to 0.795 is still possible, the AUDUSD (now at 0.7920) should resume the major downtrend to 0.75 soon.

THE ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the Aussie is unfolding a huge a-b-c retracement wave (since July 2011) where the last leg (wave-c) is supposed to be made out of 5 large waves down. 

Four of these five waves can be observed in their entirety on the monthly and weekly charts. With the top on Jan 26, their deployment is now complete.

This means that the formation of the fifth wave down begun on Jan 26, as you can see in the daily and 4-hours charts.

Besides, the weekly and daily charts display clearly the large a-b-c that formed wave-4, which in turn, is one of the large five waves above mentioned.

CONCLUSION:

For the time being, this new phase should take the Aussie down to the 0.75  area. Subsequently, unless a "surprise extension" to 0.85 occurs, the Australian Dollar should take a dive well below 0.75.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge







Daily chart, click to enlarge







4-hours chart, click to enlarge







1-hour chart, click to enlarge







Monday, 19 February 2018

The Euro topping

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD (now at 1.2412) apparently topped at 1.2555, although I thought  it would have ended its run a bit higher. It's now supposed get back to 1.244-1.246 and then resume the downturn to the 1.20-1.18 area and below.


THE ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the Euro is unfolding a huge a-b-c retracement wave (since July 2008) where the last leg (wave-c) is supposed to be made out of 5 large waves down. 

Four of these five waves can be observed in their entirety on the monthly and weekly charts. Their deployment is complete.

Conversely, the formation of the fifth wave down has just begun, as you can see in the daily and 4-hours charts.

Besides, the weekly and daily charts display clearly the large a-b-c that formed wave-4, which in turn, is one of the large five waves above mentioned.

CONCLUSION:

For the time being, this new phase should take the Euro down to the 1.20-1.18 area. Subsequently, unless a "surprise extension" to 1.30 occurs, the Euro should take a dive well below 1.18.



Monthly chart, click to enlarge








Weekly chart, click to enlarge








Daily chart, click to enlarge








4-hours chart, click to enlarge








1-hour chart, click to enlarge








Sunday, 18 February 2018

The Pound Debacle

Hi Traders,

The Pound (now at 1.4025) dived as predicted in my previous newsletter. Unless a surprises rally to 1.45 occurs, it is now supposed to bounce back to 1.41 before resuming the major downtrend.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The monthly chart reveals that the Cable is performing a huge a-b-c where  wave-c is made of 5 waves down. Four of these waves are already fully deployed. The making of the fifth wave has just started.

The weekly chart displays the end of major-wave-4 but it also shows that the theoretical target is 1.45. This is one of the two reasons why I said that a last minute "surprise rally" is still possible. The second reason is that the wave count actually allows it.

The daily and the 4-hours charts display four small waves down from the top at 1.4350.

The 4-hours and the 1-hour charts suggest a limited rebound to 1.407-1.410 before resuming the downtrend.





Monthly chart, click to enlarge








Weekly chart, click to enlarge







Daily chart, click to enlarge







4-hours chart, click to enlarge






1-hour chart, click to enlarge








Thursday, 1 February 2018

The massive depreciation of the USD vs YUAN

Hi Traders,

The us dollar vs Chinese Yuan (now at 6.298) is bottoming down, maybe around 6.27 or earlier. A retracement to 6.44 might start soon.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The weekly and the daily charts show the impressive depreciation of the US dollar since January 2017, just about when the new US president took his office. 


Considering 100% the range between the highest high and the lowest low of the USD vs YUAN  (6.9874 - 6.0153), the USD dropped a wopping 72% in 12 months.


Between 1.29 and 1.25 (see the target at 1.27 on the weekly chart), the USD might unfold a retracement wave to 6.44
 as displayed in the daily chart.




Weekly chart, click to enlarge







Daily chart, click to enlarge







4-hours chart, click to enlarge