Sunday, 19 August 2018

YUAN: Top & Reverse

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH, (the inverse of Chinese Yuan), now at 6.83, topped and reversed the sharp rally started on March 27, as predicted in my previous post. Next target: 6.69.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and the daily charts showes that the USDCNH staged a very sharp rally by means of a five-pattern-wave. Unfortunately, given the limited history of the USDCNH, there are not enough elements to predict the most likely long term wave pattern.

At present, the only direction seems to be down and the most likely targets seem to be 6.686 and 6.60. See the blue horizontal lines in the daily chart.   

The 4-hours chart shows the big reversal pattern and all the other waves of lower degree.







Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge










Monday, 6 August 2018

The USDCNH to top soon?

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH, (the inverse of Chinese Yuan), now at 6.84, has reached the target area at 6.86-6.92 where it stopped and reversed the sharp rally started on March 27, at least temporarily.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and the daily charts show that the USDCNH has reached the target area (the blue horizontal lines) where it was expected to top. 

However, this might not be the "big reverse" that the Elliott Wave people are  waiting for. In fact, the wave count looks incomplete and it might not be final.

More exactly, this pattern seems to suggest that we reached the top of minor wave three (on the 4-hours and 1-hour chart) and the Yuan is probably unfolding minor wave four to the 6.77-6.76 area (see the targets in the weekly chart, blue horizontal lines)

The 4-hours chart shows a big reversal candlestick and the 1-hour chart shows that, although it could bounce back to 6.88, the Yuan is actually ready to resume the new downtrend.







Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge





1-hour chart. Click to enlarge






Thursday, 2 August 2018

The pound to resume the downtrend?

Hi traders,

The GBPUSD (now at 1.31182) shows extreme weakness and should resume the downtrend to 1.30.


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly
and weekly charts show that the Pound is unfolding "major wave five" (downward) with a very long term target below 1.18.

The daily, 4-hours and 1-hour charts reveal that we are witnessing the last leg of the very minor wave 5 (downward) that should take the Pound to 1.30.



Monthly chart. Click to enlarge





Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge





1-hour chart. Click to enlarge






Wednesday, 1 August 2018

Dow Jones looking really scary

Hi Traders,

The Dow Jones (now at 25375) seems to defy the good fundamentals of the US economy. In fact, it is now staging a correction heading to the area 25000-24700

ELLIOTT WAVES

As you can see in the
 weekly  chart, the DJ30 is unfolding a typical wave four, which is made of an a-b-c pattern. Wave a (down) and wave b (up) are completed and wave c (down) just started its way down.This is even clearer in the daily chart.

Finally, the 4-hours chart reveals the completion of wave b and the start of the new downtrend with the first two waves: wave 1 and wave 2NOTE: the strong reversal candlestick pattern made of the last three candles.





Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge






Monday, 30 July 2018

FT100 & SPI200 to turn South?

Hi Traders,

Both the British FT 100 index (now at 7620) and the Australian SPI 200 index futures (now at 6230) might be aiming for a correction.


ELLIOTT WAVES

The fundamentals for this turnaround seem to be exclusively political for both countries but, on the technical side, the 
two indices might head to a similar destiny despite a different wave count.

FT 100 index

The daily and 4-hours charts show the completion of wave four. A drop to the 7280 area might follow soon to make room for wave five.

The weekly and monthly charts display the completion of five waves up, signalling a top and the end of a major wave count. A correction should follow. 

Finally, the weekly  chart reveals 4-5 doji candles. This is called "breakaway pattern". It's a continuation pattern aiming to continue the downtrend initiated after the top at 7884.6   

SPI 200 index futures

The SPI 200 (now at 6230) could still end its course around 6330 - see the top blue line in the monthly chart. In meantime, a correction might be under way. 

The daily and 4-hours charts show the completion of five waves as well as a dangerous double top. A drop to the 6098 or 6076 area might occur.

The monthly and the weekly chart shows that the huge a-b-c might not be completed yet and this correction might be only temporary. 


FT 100 CHARTS



FT 100 - Monthly chart, click to enlarge







FT 100 - Weekly chart, click to enlarge






FT 100 - Daily chart, click to enlarge






FT 100 - 4-hours chart, click to enlarge






SPI 200 CHARTS




SPI 200 - Monthly chart, click to enlarge







SPI 200 - Weekly chart, click to enlarge






SPI 200 - Daily chart, click to enlarge






SPI 200 - 4-hours chart, click to enlarge








Thursday, 14 June 2018

THE OIL TO TURN SOUTH AGAIN?

Hi traders,

The WTI OIL (now at 66.63) is approaching the theoretical Turning Point at 67.20-67.42 where it should resume the downtrend to the area at 62.74-62.35.


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that we might have witnessed the last retracement wave up (at 5 4 ) before the final dive which will deploy wave-5 downwards (not labelled yet).


The weekly chart shows the giant a-b-c started in Feb 2016 where wave-c is still in the making. Wave-a and wave-b are fully deployed whilst wave-c still needs another small leg down (wave-5, still to be labelled) to complete the giant a-b-c.

As for the daily chart and the 4-hours chart, see wave-4 approaching the theoretical Turning Point at 67.20-67.42.




Monthly chart. Click to enlarge





Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge







Wednesday, 13 June 2018

Time to Short the USDSGD?

Hi Traders,

The USDSGD (now at 1.3361) seems to be ready for a big dive as it shows clear signs of extreme weakness. It might be heading to the 1.3147 area sooner than later.


See the blue target lines 
in the monthly chart and in the weekly chart

ELLIOTT WAVES


The monthly chart 
shows the completion of major wave 4 around January 3, 2017. That Pivot Point marked the start of major wave 5 downwards (not labelled yet).

The weekly chart and the daily chart show the completion of another wave 4 of a lesser degree around May 10.

That Pivot Point marked the start of another wave 5 of a lesser degree downwards (not labelled yet).

Finally, the 4-hours chart shows a significant double top. Note the last 4 bars: it's a candlestick pattern called runaway pattern. This could be a nearly perfect time to short the USDSGD.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge




Tuesday, 12 June 2018

Time to short the Aussie?

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.7615) is mocking up the Titanic as it seems to be ready to sink. Although there is still a chance for a small rally to the area  0.7638-42, it shows clear signs of extreme weakness and it might be heading to the 0.73 area sooner than later.


See the blue target lines in the weekly chart.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The monthly chart and the weekly chart show the completion of major wave 4 (in magenta) around Jan 26. That Pivot Point marked the start of major wave 5 downwards (not labelled yet).


The daily chart displays another wave 4 that topped around June 6. That Pivot Point marked the start of another wave 5 of a smaller degree, heading South as well 
(still, not labelled yet). Note the major support at 0.7500.

The 4-hours chart shows the composition of wave 4 and the short term target of the first leg of wave 5 
(not labelled yet) aiming to 0.7560




Monthly chart, click to enlarge







Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge





Wednesday, 23 May 2018

WTI OIL to top soon?

Hi traders,

The WTI OIL (now at 71.75) is loosing steam and might top soon. Although my target is still the area 74.91-77.13, it might actually top before 74.00

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows the giant a-b-c started in Feb 2016 where 
wave-c is almost completed. Wave-a and wave-b are fully deployed whilst wave-c is in the very final stage.

The monthly chart shows that t
his giant a-b-c is just a retracement wave up (wave four) of the downturn that started in July 2008. Once completed, it will stage an important correction to the South side.

As for the daily chart, i
t displays a 1-2-3-4 (in black). After that  another 1-2-3-4 (in green) highlights four waves of a smaller degree. Once wave five is completed, the whole pattern could reverse course.

Finally, check the arrow in the 4-hours chart: it highlights a candlestick pattern that usually occurs when a top is imminent.



Monthly chart. Click to enlarge





Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge





Wednesday, 4 April 2018

WTI OIL STILL HEADING SOUTH

Hi traders,

I am grinning as I got it right again. At present, the WTI OIL (now at 63.35) seems to be heading towards the 57.30 area as it's performing a retracement wave  (see my previous post). However, there is still a chance for a small jump to the area 64.15-64.64 before heading South.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows the giant a-b-c started in Feb 2016 where 
wave-c is in the making. Wave-a and wave-b are fully deployed whilst wave-c is still in the making. It could end in the 69.6-70.50 area or even the 74-77 area.

The monthly chart shows that t
his should be the last retracement wave (up) before the final dive (wave-5).

As for the daily chart, another smaller wave-4 is unfolding with an a-b-c on a much smaller scale. Wave-a and wave-b are already in place whilst wave-c is still in the making with a possible target down to 
57.30.

The 4-hours chart shows the target area of the possible rebound: 64.15-64.64 within the next few hours, whilst the 1-hour chart draws our attention to a possible intermediate target at 61.30-61.45.





Monthly chart. Click to enlarge





Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge





1-hour chart. Click to enlarge