Monday 8 July 2019

Gold turning South

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1405) initiated a sharp downturn that might drag it down to 1300 and below.

ELLIOTT WAVES

After the low at 5cthe monthly chart staged a 1-2-3-4-5 that seems to be completed. Consequently, Gold could start a downturn to the 1300 area.

This 5 waves pattern looks like a large Wave 4 of a downtrend. In this pattern, the first 4 legs are made out of 3 smaller waves and the last wave (wave 5) is made out of 5 waves.

All this religiously happened: see weekly and daily charts. NOTE: a further confirmation is provided by the Gann "throw over", that occurs where wave 5 shoots through the upper boundary of the wedge. See the daily chart.

The 4-hours chart displays the reverse pattern at 55C5.


Monthly chart. Click to enlarge





Weekly chart. Click to enlarge






Daily chart. Click to enlarge






4-hours chart. Click to enlarge




Thursday 23 May 2019

Red alert for the ASX 200

Hi Traders,

Although the ASX 200 (now at 6475) has still the potential to get to 6800, the current uptrend doesn't seem trustworthy anymore and it might be more prudent taking your profit home.



ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows a pattern that could be a giant wave 4 unfolding with an a-b-c.  Wave b, made of 5 waves up, is almost complete (although unusually built of 5 waves up instead of 3 or 7 waves up). Still, however you want to put it, we might be close to a major top.

Note the theoretical target at 6680-6750.

The weekly and daily charts show that the ASX 200 unfolded an uptrend that  is suspiciously similar to a pattern called the-fifth-of-the-fifth-of-the-fifth.

This means that we might have seen a top - or be really close to a top - due to the completion of all the major and minor fifth waves.

Finally, the 4-hours chart displays a lot of dangerous reversal candlesticks as well a declining volume.




Monthly chart, Click to enlarge








Weekly chart, Click to enlarge








Daily chart, Click to enlarge








4-hours chart, Click to enlarge









Saturday 2 March 2019

WTI OIL just topped


Hi Traders,

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ANALYSIS



The WTI OIL (now at 55.73) just topped. Closest target: the area 53-51 (theoretically, 51.24).


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the WTI OIL unfolded four major waves down (in magenta) and started major wave five downward after the top at 77.

In the weekly chart, the first part of major wave five (wave 1) took the Oil down to 42.35. Then retraced to 57.85 (wave 2) and now seems to be heading down again by starting wave 3.


The daily and 4-hours charts confirm that wave 2 was made of three waves up (as it's supposed to be). It also show a double top and reversal candlestick pattern, confirming that a top-and-reverse is in place.

Finally, the 1-hour chart shows a "breakaway pattern", meaning that the next movement should be down.

NOTE

There is still the chance that (in the weekly chart) this is a temporary retracement down.

If this is the case, the OIL could be stopped by the support around 51 and reverse. In so doing, it would make a new high anywhere between 64.80 and 93.60.

Instead, if the OIL crosses that support around 51, we need to consider 26.00 as the next support.



Monthly chart, click to enlarge





Weekly chart, click to enlarge





Daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hours chart, click to enlarge





1-hour chart, click to enlarge




Friday 22 February 2019

Gold just topped

Hi Traders,

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ANALYSIS


Although I thought that Gold (now at 1323) was going to top at 1333/4, it topped at 1346/7. The next leg should point down, starting with the target at 1236.


ELLIOTT WAVES



The monthly and weekly charts display a large wedge which is an  accumulation pattern (a-b-c-d-e). Theoretically, next large wave should tank from now on.

The daily chart and the weekly chart clearly show that the whole set of 5 waves up - from the bottom at d - is religiously in place. These waves formed wave e which topped right now.





Monthly chart. Click to enlarge








Weekly chart. Click to enlarge









Daily chart. Click to enlarge









4-hour chart. Click to enlarge









Wednesday 9 January 2019

The EURO to top soon?

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.146) might not make it through the 1.165 resistance. Hence, it could reverse course soon to target the area around 1.1040.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The monthly and weekly charts reveal some information:


1) The Euro is performing an a-b-c retracement wave from the top at 1.6037.


2) Wave c is sub-divided in 5 waves down. Wave four seems is
 fully deployed and wave five downward is already half away to 1.1040.

However, wave four can unfold with different shapes. In particular, it could evolve into a much large pattern which includes a rally to 1.27-1.30 before resuming the downtrend. We'll see.

The daily and 4-hours charts show that wave 5 (from the top at 4 in magenta) is currently unfolding with 5 minor waves, 3 fully deployed and the 4th one almost complete. If this is the case, minor wave five could be heading to 1.104 soon.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge








Weekly chart, click to enlarge








Daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hours chart, click to enlarge






Thursday 3 January 2019

Gold to top soon?

Hi Traders,

Happy New Year! This is the first newsletter of the 2019.

For those who want to get to the professional level, please check my mentor program.


ANALYSIS


Although Gold is trying to get to the area 1300-1308 (see the target lines in the daily chart), it also shows the signs of a commodity running out of steam and it might turn South before reaching that target.

Note the exhaustion gap in the 1-hour chart.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The monthly and weekly charts display a very large accumulation pattern (a-b-c). From the top at C, Gold has now staged 4 small waves downward (out of 5). Wave 5 might take the commodity to the area 1155-1131 or even 1100.

The daily chart and the weekly chart clearly show that the whole set of 4 waves down - from the top at C - is religiously in place. If Gold tops soon, it will mark the completion of wave 4, starting a new downtrend to be labelled wave 5.




Monthly chart. Click to enlarge








Weekly chart. Click to enlarge









Daily chart. Click to enlarge









4-hour chart. Click to enlarge









1-hour chart. Click to enlarge













Sunday 11 November 2018

WTI OIL bouncing back

Hi Traders,

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ANALYSIS

As predicted in my previous post, the WTI Oil (now at USD 59.81) started a major downtrend on Oct 10 and it is on way to reach the target in the USD 55-54 area (see the weekly chart).

It should then bounce back to the area USD 65-66.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The daily chart and the weekly chart clearly show that the whole set of Elliott waves and sub-waves is religiously in place, confirming the assumption of the completion of major wave 4 and the start of a new downtrend (major wave 5)

Major wave 4 (in the monthly and weekly charts) was supposed to be made out of three or seven waves. In fact, it formed an a-b-c in the weekly chart which is equivalent to a seven waves pattern displayed in the monthly chart


CONCLUSION

The WTI OIL is on the way to complete five waves down to USD 55-54 (see 4-hours chart). After the completion, it's expected to stage a three retracement-waves up to USD 65-66 (see the monthly chart).





monthly chart - click to enlarge






weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hours chart - click to enlarge












Monday 3 September 2018

WTI OIL: end of the line?

Hi Traders,

Although the WTI OIL (now at 70.34) can still edge up a bit, it might not make it higher than 72.60 and the long awaited major downturn could set in soon. Targets: the area 68-67 followed by the supports at 64-63 and 61-60.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The weekly chart reveals that the inclination of wave 2 is perfectly identical to the inclination of wave 4 (see the gray lines) and this might be a indication that wave 4 just topped.

Previously, wave 2 topped and reversed after touching the inclination line. Similarly, wave 4 touched the inclination line at 75.34. This could be a top as well.

In addition, the top of wave 4 coincides with a major resistance (see the weekly chart

Most importantly, the daily chart clearly shows that the whole set of Elliott waves and sub-waves is religiously in place, confirming the assumption of the completion of major wave 4. See also the possible target at 72.26-72.60.

IDENTICAL INCLINATION

Identical inclination means that WTI OIL gained the same average dollars each week in both wave 2 and wave 4. Let's see how:

- Wave 2 lasted 99 weeks, from a low at 74.94 to a top at 112.20. Gain: 37.26
Average weekly gain: $0.37

- wave 4 lasted 128 weeks, from a low at 27.69 to a top at 75.34. Gain: 47.65
Average weekly gain: $0.37   

NOTE: W.D. Gann - and very few others later - developed studies about the interaction between a price unit ($0.37) and a time unit (1 week) in order to pinpoint time turning points

Unfortunately I don't possess the knowledge and the technology to indulge in such a time consuming study. However, I sometimes use "Time Turning Points" as further confirmation of the Elliott waves events, like the contemporary completion of major wave 4 in conjunction with a TTP.


CONCLUSION

Given that major wave 4 seems to be complete, the uptrend that started on Jan 20, 2016 appears to be over and the WTI OIL might soon head South.





weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hours chart - click to enlarge













Monday 20 August 2018

Gold to rebound?

Hi Traders,

XAUUSD (now at 1184) bottomed at 1160 and started a new rally. Target 1235 and 1250.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The identification of the Elliott Waves often poses some real challenges when it comes to some complex waves labelled by the purists "wyz-x-wyz". Hence, f
or the time being, I prefer to avoid that fancy stuff and stick to the hypothesis of a wedge formation, labelled 1-2-3-4. See the weekly chart.

Whatever you choose to call it, this kind of pattern can lead to very contradictory outcomes 
in the very long run. Let's see how.

1) Gold might stage a fifth wave up (wave e) with a "throw over" to the area 1433-1627 (see the weekly chart).
2) Gold might get to the 1337 area and then sink to the area 882-845 (see the monthly chart)
3) Finally, if the pattern on show right now is not a wedge (a-b-c-d) but just a  simple a-b-c, there could be a temporary rally to 1235-1250 followed by a  downtrend to the area 882-845.

Whatever it happens, all these postulations have just one thing in common: Gold should reach the 1235-1250 area.

CONCLUSION:  

With the exception of the above targets, there are too many possible outcomes to be able to identify the most likely pattern in  the long runIt is, therefore, wiser to stick to the close targets (see the 4-hours and the daily charts) and wait for more data.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge






Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge