Thursday, 29 November 2012

SPI200, Thursday NOV 29, 2012

Hi Traders,

 
Before getting into my analysis, please take note that I will run a course in January in Sydney: TRADING WITH ELLIOTT WAVES AND FIBONACCI.
 
 
HOW LONG: It's a 3 day course, 6 hour/day, 10am-1pm & 2pm-5pm.
 
WHERE: State Library of NSW, Macquarie St, Sydney
 
WHEN: Friday, Jan 18, Saturday Jan 19 and Sunday Jan 20.
 
HOW MUCH: $2,870 for early birds (by Friday, Jan 11) reduced from $3,020. Save $150! Non members: $3,170.
 
Bonus! 4 weeks of The Elliott Waves Newsletter twice a week, on Wednesday and Sunday.
 
HOW: There will be very little blah-blah and you will be asked to practise on paper charts and your laptop straight away. Check the content HERE
 
We will identify set ups and triggers on a wide range of FX & Commodity Charts and we will setup your trading platform to be ready to trade straight away.
 
My teachings are structured in progressive stages: every bit of information will be followed but practical application on real charts.
 
 
 
  

------------------------------------
 

SPI200: SETUP & TRIGGER

Note that, to make things more clear, I no longer show displaced moving averages on charts.


 SETUP
 
The SPI200 future seems ready for the very last (little) rally that would start a major bearish reversal.


Last week I said that we were starting a rally - heading to the area around 4686 - and the rally occurred promptly. I also said that this rally might stop running early - in the area 4565-4583 - hence staging a double top.

However there's now a good chance for it to stop even earlier: around 5414-17. Consequently: keep your eyes open for a reversal candlestick.
 
TIMING:
 
Some Fibonacci calculations reveal the chance of the top around Dec 10-11 if this uptrend pace slows down significantly. If it doesn't, we don't have more then 2 trading days
 
TRIGGER
 
To my knowledge, it might not be worth going long. Just wait for the reversal candlestick on the 5min and 15min chart, bearing in mind that it might happen during our sleeping time.

 

SITUATION


The whole pattern, is a huge retracement wave 2 down (see "e2", bottom right), started in April 2010 and it's shaping a "1-2-3-4-5" pointing down, as in the monthly chart below. We are currently completing leg 4 up.

Leg 4 up is part of correction wave "2" made out of the above mentioned 5 legs and ending down in the area named "e2", the lower cluster of horizontal lines.


Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
















The blue channel - weekly chart below - shows that the major wave 4 (in red, top right, font 12, near the apex of the triangle) is, in turn, made of 5 waves itself. The 5th one is now heading to 4555 and it's theoretically supposed to reach the upper channel line at 4628.
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.







In the daily chart below, the last wave up stopped at 4482 which is exactly the 61.8% retracement of wave 1 in red. However, it should be heading to 4514-17 if it overcomes this resistance

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.








The 4hour chart below doesn't show any sign of a reversal candlestick yet augmenting the probability to reach 4514-17



 



and so the 1hour chart below




Sunday, 18 November 2012

SPI200, Sunday, Nov 18, 2012

Hi Traders,

 
Before getting into my analysis, please take note that I will run a course in January in Sydney: TRADING WITH ELLIOTT WAVES AND FIBONACCI.
 
 
HOW LONG: It's a 3 day course, 6 hour/day, 10am-1pm & 2pm-5pm.
 
WHERE: State Library of NSW, Macquarie St, Sydney
 
WHEN: Friday, Jan 18, Saturday Jan 19 and Sunday Jan 20.
 
PRICE: $2,870 for early birds (by Friday, Jan 11) reduced from $3,020. Save $150! Non members: $3,170.
 
Bonus! 4 weeks of The Elliott Waves Newsletter twice a week, on Wednesday and Sunday.
 
HOW: There will be very little blah-blah and you will be asked to practise on paper charts and your laptop straight away. Check the content HERE
 
We will identify set ups and triggers on a wide range of FX & Commodity Charts and we will setup your trading platform to be ready to trade straight away.
 
My teachings are structured in progressive stages: every bit of information will be followed but practical application on real charts.


 
 
 
 
------------------------------------
 

SPI200: SETUP & TRIGGER

Note that, to make things more clear, I no longer show displaced moving averages on charts.

SETUP
 
The SPI200 future closed at  4359 and it seems ready for the very last rally that would form a major top followed by a major bearish reversal.

If the wave count is correct, we're heading to the area around 4686. If the rally  stops running early - in the area 4565-4583 - it will stage a double top.
 
TIMING:
 
Some Fibonacci calculations reveal the chance of the top around Dec 10-11 or Jan 7-8
 
TRIGGER
 
The trigger occurred already. It's made of 4 elements identifiable in the 15 min chart (last chart below):
 
  • 5 waves down - of the smallest grade (in red)
  • Candlestick Reversal
  • A set of waves made of wave 1 and 2 (in blue)
  • A double bottom
 
SITUATION

The whole pattern, a huge retracement wave 2 down (see "e2", bottom right), started in April 2010 and it's shaping a "1-2-3-4-5" pointing down, as in the monthly chart below. We are currently completing leg 4 up.

Leg 4 up is part of correction wave "2" made out of the above mentioned 5 legs and ending in the area named "e2", the lower cluster of horizontal lines.


Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

 
  
 
The blue channel - weekly chart below - shows that the major wave 4 (in red, top right,  font 12, near the apex of the triangle) is, in turn,  made of 5 waves itself. The 5th one is not there yet and it's supposed to reach the upper channel line or cross it a bit.
 
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
  
 

  


In the daily chart below, wave 1 turned out to be an over-extended wave and wave 3 a regular one. The new wave 5 should be similar to wave 3.

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 
 
 

  
Note the reversal candlestick in the 4-hour chart below. The first expected resistance should be around 4421, given the confluence of few Fib-nodes.
 
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

 
 
 
The 1-hour chart below shows another possible resistance around 4400.

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.

  
 

 
 
 
Finally, the 15min chart below shows a nearly perfect TRIGGER.
 
This trigger occurred already. It's made of 4 elements identifiable in the 15 min chart (last chart below) as:

  • 5 Waves Down - of the smallest grade (in red) - prior the reversal.
  • Candlestick Reversal.
  • A set of waves made of wave 1 and 2 (in blue).
  • A double bottom.
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

Thursday, 1 November 2012

FT100, Thursday Nov 1, 2012

Hi Traders,

If my wave count is right the FT100 has lost the last chance to over around the 5,700 area and it's heading south.

The monthly chart below (sorry, i don't have much history) shows the completion of 5 waves up and the 1-2-3-4 in red. Note the log shadows in the last 3 candles, clearly a sign of weakness.

 



Check the weekly chart below. The FT100 reached the top level 4-5 times but shows great weakness . Check the red Displaced MA (DiNapoli). It shows a Double Repo, meaning that it's quite bearish.



 
 


The daily chart below shows the completion of 5 waves up, wave 1 and 2 in red and a breakout. Time to take your short position. It also shows a double top made of wave 5 and wave 2.




 


In the 4-hour chart below there's a reversal candlestick (4) within a down channel that has been touched 5 times




 


The 1-hour chart below shows wave 1 and 2 out of 5. Good entry point.




Tuesday, 30 October 2012

S&P500, Tuesday OCT 30, 2012

Hi Traders,

I've been asked whether I'm still bullish on S&P500. I do, and I'm still in, although I've been stopped out twice in a row and I'm dangerously close to my stop loss.

It's not stubbornness. I just reviewed my analysis and it doesn't seem to be wrong.

I suggest to go straight to the 1-hour chart to see the double bottom. More urgently, check the 15 min chart to see the Candlestick reversal and the perfect entry point.

SITUATION

Basically nothing has changed as you can see in the weely chart below. Clearly, we now need the last jump up, meaning the last wave 5 up.

Possible targets: 1530, 1628, 1740, 1755 and 1855, the most likely target area being 1740-1755.
Also, what's going to be the effect of the incoming election on S&P500









In the daily chart below the S&P500 touches the magenta channel for the 4th time. Although I don't see a candlestick reversal I see a lot of doji candles, meaning that
  • there's not market (hurricane Sandy)
  • there's no apparent intention to go down 
BUT ...







The Elliott wave's count in the 4-hour chart below shows the completion of 5 waves down, a nice double bottom and a candlestick reversal (bottom right).







In the 1-hour chart below we have a triple bottom, the completion of 5 waves down and a Stochastic positive divergence.









In the 15-min chart below we have a triple bottom, the completion of 5 waves down, a nice reversal candlestick and the new waves 1 and 2, the latter being the perfect entry point.










Thursday, 25 October 2012

S&P500, Thursday Oct 25, 2012

Hi Traders,
 
On Sunday I said ... unless some extended Elliott Wave shows up, it's time to short the S&P500 ... Well, the extended wave actually showed up. If this is true, it's now the time to reverse to bullish.
 
The Elliott Wave count is now slightly different as you can see in the weely chart below. The last two waves (top right of the chart) have been renamed 3 and 4. Clearly, we now need the last jump up, meaning the last wave 5 up.
 
Possible targets:  1530, 1628, 1740, 1755 and 1855, the most likely target area being 1740-1755.
 


 



The daily chart below shows that the last wave 4 unfolded in a Zig-Zag made of 5 waves. It also shows that the absolute top was nothing more then the top of the extended wave 3.






The 4-hour chart below shows the 5 waves down forming the big pattern of the above mentioned  wave 4. Note the double bottom formation (bottom right). Note also the channel being touched 4 times. All of these being evidence of a reversal.






The channel in the 1-hour chart below show 4 contact points followed, as usual, by a bullish breakout.







The 15min chart below that shows the breakout is, at present, made out of 3 waves up (out of 5)



 
 






Wednesday, 24 October 2012

OIL WTI, Wednesday Oct 24, 2012

Hi Traders,

Timing seems to be a serious matter for WTI Oil.

Since the Dec 2008 low around $36, the WTI futures started a new uptrend with 3 major waves up to $115 in Apr 2011.

It took 120 weeks precisely from low to top. See monthy chart below.

Then it moved sideways for 60 weeks precisely from top to low. Remarkable!

Now, all this moving sideways usually indicates a major wave 4 in formation, which should perform an  a-b-c-d-e, meaning a zig-zag with 5 legs.

If this is true we just started the last 5 waves down that constitute the wave "e" (see "5d" on the far right).

Tartget: $84.75 - as a minimum - and another likely target in the area $80.10-$78.50.

Furhermore: some say that it must go back to $70 (the lower blue line) before starting the last uptrend. This is actually a real chance but I don't have enough elements to confirm it. It's just an eventuality that I don't discard.



 



Note the daily chart below. After major wave 2 (in red, touching the red  horizontal line) a new downtrend started over. We should see of 5  waves down, where 1 and 2 - in red - are already in place. 

Very important: we're hovering over $87 right now, which is a very major support.

It should bounce back on the support and then go through. Use this retracement as an entry point. Check your own 1hour-15min chart for the best entry.



 


The 4-hour chart below shows a strong resistance at $93.62 (red horizontal line) and 4 waves down. The top of wave 4 is a good entry for a short.




 



Also, the 1-hour chart below indicated that wave 4 up (bottom right) is not complete yet. As the blue horizontal line is a confluence (K) of  Fib-nodes, it might be your entry point and also the top of wave 4.








Sunday, 21 October 2012

SPI200, Sunday OCT 21, 2012

 
Hi Traders,
 
The SPI200 seems to have reached the very top with a much expected two-step-pattern. I don't see any other way but downward.
 
If the Elliott Wave count is right - see the monthly chart below - we just started 5 waves down with a minimum target at 3700. Volatility could be quite high at this stage and so the amplitude of this wave down.
 
Hence, shortening the SPI200 now might result in a very profitable trade.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
As you see in the weekly  chart below we've reached the top target expected between 4,564 and 4,583 in 5 waves up.
 
 
 
 
 
 
The fact that we've reached the top of the wave up is confirmed by the candlestick reversal (top right) in the daily chart below.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The 4-hour chart below shows a three-soldiers pattern which is usually a prelude to a retracement. If a little retracement occurs, that would be the perfect entry point.
 
 
 
 

S&P500, Sunday OCT 21, 2012



Hi Traders,

Unless some extended Elliott Wave shows up, it's time to short the S&P500, and for the long run. Expect a lot of volativity. Hence, be careful about the entry point as there could be a little retracement up on Monday (see 4-hour chart).

SITUATION

The S&P500 in the weekly chart below has completed 5 waves up from the minimum in March 2009. If the wave count is right we're aiming for 1090-1012 as a minimum




 
 

The daily chart below shows that the last wave up was an extended wave (see 555 - top right) followed by a 1-2-3-4 sideways in red. From now on the downtrend could be faster. 






The 4-hour chart below shows a candlestick reversal at 555 (top left) and another cadlestick reversal at 32 (top centre in blue and red). After the big slump (on the right) there could be a retracement. Then the downtrebd should resume.


 


Saturday, 20 October 2012

USDJPY, Sat Oct 20, 2012

Hi Traders,
 
USDJPY, now at 79.27, moved exactly as predicted.
 
SITUATION
 
The uptrend is likely to continue for very long time although this week we will probably see a minor downtrend (see 4-hour and 1-hour  charts below) due to the unfolding of minor wave 4, which is usually a Zig-Zag to the downside. This action should take 1-3 days, then the uptrend should resume.
 
THE CHARTS
 
In the monthly chart below the currency pair has performed a breakout of the magenta channel. Minimum target at 94.00 (horizontal blue line). 
 
We're also plenty of secondary targets/resistances: 85.13, 88.98, 94.00, 98.94, 102.00 and 105.36, the ones in bold more interesting.
 
 
 
 
 
 
This situation is confirmed by the weekly chart below which shows the completion of wave 1 and 2 in blue, the latter completing 5 waves down. The chart aims now to a target of 85.13 
 
 
 

 
Having completed wave 1 and 2, the USDJPY is now working to complete wave 3 in 5 waves of a minor grade down (in royal blues and smaller font). More exactly, 3 of these 5 minor grade waves are now completed as in the daily chart below.
 
The next is wave 4 and it's a Zig-Zag made of 3-5 waves.
 
 
 
 
 
 
The 4-hour chart below shows the completion of wave 3 of a minor grade. This will be followed by wave 4 in a Zig-Zag made of 3-5 waves down. Targets at 78.86 but also at 78.66 and 78.55.
 
 


 
 
Finally the 1-hour chart below shows that, after completeng wave 3 up (in blue large font), we've done wave 1 (in magenta) sideways.
 
From now on the USDJPY will retrace down to 78.9 and 78.66 (blue horizontal line). Expect other 3 waves down. 
 
 
 
 

Sunday, 14 October 2012

USDJPY, Sunday OCT 14, 2012

 
 Hi Traders,
 
 
USDJPY Analysis.

To fully understand this analysis we need to check the USDJPY history. The chart below shows that the USDJPY was fixed at 360 Yen per US Dollar in 1949 till 1971.

This was followed by a 41 years drop till level 74-75 yen for a green back in recent times.

The chart shows that we completed 5 major waves down in Feb 2012. The end of the downtrend is confirmed by the last major wave (5) being sub-divided in 5 waves itself.




The chart below suggest that the first major resistance is around level USDJPY 101.00. Let's see weather this is true (next set of charts).




WHAT NEXT?

 
We have the chance of the best entry point for USDJPY. The Monthly chart below show the completion of the very last wave down and the start of the new uptrend with wave 1 and 2 in blue. The bottom of this little wave 2 is the very best entry point.
 
 
 



The weekly chart below show the completion of wave 1 and 2 up, the latter unfolded in 5 waves down.






And so the daily chart below. Note the very little ripples in blue at the bottom right hand side. Wave 1 and 2 (in font 10) and wave 1 and 2 (in font 8): this is the very best entry point.






Once again:  the 4hour chart below shows wave 1 and 2 (in font 10) and wave 1 and 2 (in font 8). This is the very best entry point!






Finally, the 1hour chart below indicates that the very last retracement wave 2 unfolded in 5 waves down but showed no real intention to retrace much.






AUDUSD, Sunday Oct 14, 2012

Hi Traders,
 
From time to time I like indulging in some time calculation. Look what i found.
TIMING
To start, let me recall that:
  • In 1967 the AUD was pegged to USD at the rate of 1.12USD
  • On Sep 9, 1973 it was adjusted to 1.4885USD
  • On Dec 12, 1983 the AUD was floated
  • On Apr 2001 it reached the lowest low at 0.4775USD.
I have drawn vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart below, starting from the low on Apr 2001.

In terms of Elliott Waves, the AUD is now performing an a-b-c-d-e slightly down and then up

i.e: the chart is moving down to complete wave "e". After completion, it would finally move up for the last 5-9 waves.

Consequently there's a chance for the AUD to end its sideway move by completing "wave e" down in early Dec 2012 (see vertical line marked "141", top-right of the monthly chart).
If this is correct, early Dec 2012 would be the starting point of the very last Elliott wave up (the 5th, of the 5th, of the 5th) which should end by April 8-9, 2013 (see vertical line marked 144, top-right of the monthly chart).
April 8-9 2013 will mark the completion of a Fibonacci time cycle of 144 month, from the low at 0.4775 in April 2001.
Now, getting back to the vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart, starting from April 2001. There's a periodicity of 47 month between major low and tops and viceversa.
  • Apr 2001 (Low) - Feb 2005 (top), 47 month
  • Mar 2005 (Top) - Dec 2008 (low), 47 month
  • Jan 2009 (low ) - Dec 2012, 47 month (end of waves 1-2-3-4 and start of 5 ?). See vertical line marked 141 (month).
If this is true, minor wave 5 up might last only 4 month, (Dec 2012- Apr 2013).

TARGETS

By using Fibonacci projections we have a DiNapoli Confluence (an aggregation of Fib-nodes) at 1.12USD - Waw! History repeats! - although we have another possible confluence at 1.32-133 USD.

Analysis

The monthly chart below shows that we are now working to complete 5 waves sideways (ending in Dec 2012).
This should be done with an a-b-c-d-e (labelled in red, on the far upper right).
Wave a-b-c-d are completed but we are not done yet with wave "e" which is bearish by definition.
This wave might target the lower (blue) line of the triangle and it will enfold in 5 waves down (as the Elliott rule).
Consequently, in the monthly chart below, the long term trend is down and we expect 5 waves down. We've already marked wave 1 (down) in red.
CLICK CHARTS TO ENLARGE AND "X" TO EXIT (or click ESC)
 
Once again, we completed wave 1, 2 ,3 and 4 - major grade - from April 2001.
 
Major wave 5 - which can be broken in 5 waves itself - is now completing wave  4 (of 5) with an a-b-c-d-e, as in the top right hand corner of the monthly chart below.
 
 
 
 

 
 

 
Note wave 4 enfolding with an a-b-c-d-e in the weekly chart below and note also the double top made out of "d" and number "2". This is the start of leg "e" enfolding in five waves down.
 
Nice reversal candles at the top of wave "d" and wave "2". Possible tartget around 0.96, then reversal up again to a possible target around 1.12.








Note the double top of the daily chart below. It's made out of wave "d" and wave "2". Note also that the previous uptrend in the blue channel was a "two step pattern", ie: 1,2 and 3 only, which is typical of a retracement wave like wave d.

Nice reversal candles at the end of wave "c", wave "d",  wave "1" and wave 2.






Below in the 4hour chart you see wave 1-2-3-4 and 5 down in the magenta channel followed by a retracement up in 5 waves ending in a double top and two remarcable reversal patterns. Note that the retracement didn't even reach level 38%, definetively a sign of weakness.







Wave 4 in the 1hour chart below enfolds in 5 waves up and 1-2-3 down. The chart is now pushing a zig-zag up (wave 4) and then the 5th wave down. But ... keep focussed! All this is only part of wave 3 down of a major grade! (see weekly chart)