Friday, 1 December 2017

GOLD PERSISTENT WEAKNESS

Hi Traders,

I think that everybody got the message. A at this point, the combination of crypto-currencies and low inflation is probably the worst enemies for GOLD (now at 1275).


Hence, it's probably a good time for some trades to the South side as Gold might target the 1200 level in the short term (see the monthly chart).

Furthermore, the XAUUSD might not be able to find a serious support before hitting the area 1155-1130 (see the weekly chart).

ELLIOTT WAVES


I must admit that the identification of the Elliott Waves posed some challenges. 
Initially, the monthly chart displayed essentially the following waves:

  • five impulse waves up from Sept 3,1999 (at $253) to Sept 5, 2011 (at 1920) Timing: 144 weeks. 
  • three retracement waves down  (a-b-c) from Sept 6, 2011 (at $1920) to Dec 15, 2016 (at $1046). Timing: 64 weeks, so far.
That looked very much as a case study and I honestly thought that, at 1046,  the downtrend was over.

Instead, I overlooked  an important detail: the candlestick pattern at 1046 (see the low at 55C) was a clear warning that the incoming uptrend was going to be only temporary.

Conclusion: even if a rebound to 1281-90 is still possible, Gold should resume the downtrend to the 1200 area.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge






Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge