Saturday, 2 March 2019

WTI OIL just topped


Hi Traders,

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ANALYSIS



The WTI OIL (now at 55.73) just topped. Closest target: the area 53-51 (theoretically, 51.24).


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the WTI OIL unfolded four major waves down (in magenta) and started major wave five downward after the top at 77.

In the weekly chart, the first part of major wave five (wave 1) took the Oil down to 42.35. Then retraced to 57.85 (wave 2) and now seems to be heading down again by starting wave 3.


The daily and 4-hours charts confirm that wave 2 was made of three waves up (as it's supposed to be). It also show a double top and reversal candlestick pattern, confirming that a top-and-reverse is in place.

Finally, the 1-hour chart shows a "breakaway pattern", meaning that the next movement should be down.

NOTE

There is still the chance that (in the weekly chart) this is a temporary retracement down.

If this is the case, the OIL could be stopped by the support around 51 and reverse. In so doing, it would make a new high anywhere between 64.80 and 93.60.

Instead, if the OIL crosses that support around 51, we need to consider 26.00 as the next support.



Monthly chart, click to enlarge





Weekly chart, click to enlarge





Daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hours chart, click to enlarge





1-hour chart, click to enlarge




Friday, 22 February 2019

Gold just topped

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ANALYSIS


Although I thought that Gold (now at 1323) was going to top at 1333/4, it topped at 1346/7. The next leg should point down, starting with the target at 1236.


ELLIOTT WAVES



The monthly and weekly charts display a large wedge which is an  accumulation pattern (a-b-c-d-e). Theoretically, next large wave should tank from now on.

The daily chart and the weekly chart clearly show that the whole set of 5 waves up - from the bottom at d - is religiously in place. These waves formed wave e which topped right now.





Monthly chart. Click to enlarge








Weekly chart. Click to enlarge









Daily chart. Click to enlarge









4-hour chart. Click to enlarge









Wednesday, 9 January 2019

The EURO to top soon?

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.146) might not make it through the 1.165 resistance. Hence, it could reverse course soon to target the area around 1.1040.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The monthly and weekly charts reveal some information:


1) The Euro is performing an a-b-c retracement wave from the top at 1.6037.


2) Wave c is sub-divided in 5 waves down. Wave four seems is
 fully deployed and wave five downward is already half away to 1.1040.

However, wave four can unfold with different shapes. In particular, it could evolve into a much large pattern which includes a rally to 1.27-1.30 before resuming the downtrend. We'll see.

The daily and 4-hours charts show that wave 5 (from the top at 4 in magenta) is currently unfolding with 5 minor waves, 3 fully deployed and the 4th one almost complete. If this is the case, minor wave five could be heading to 1.104 soon.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge








Weekly chart, click to enlarge








Daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hours chart, click to enlarge






Thursday, 3 January 2019

Gold to top soon?

Hi Traders,

Happy New Year! This is the first newsletter of the 2019.

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ANALYSIS


Although Gold is trying to get to the area 1300-1308 (see the target lines in the daily chart), it also shows the signs of a commodity running out of steam and it might turn South before reaching that target.

Note the exhaustion gap in the 1-hour chart.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The monthly and weekly charts display a very large accumulation pattern (a-b-c). From the top at C, Gold has now staged 4 small waves downward (out of 5). Wave 5 might take the commodity to the area 1155-1131 or even 1100.

The daily chart and the weekly chart clearly show that the whole set of 4 waves down - from the top at C - is religiously in place. If Gold tops soon, it will mark the completion of wave 4, starting a new downtrend to be labelled wave 5.




Monthly chart. Click to enlarge








Weekly chart. Click to enlarge









Daily chart. Click to enlarge









4-hour chart. Click to enlarge









1-hour chart. Click to enlarge













Sunday, 11 November 2018

WTI OIL bouncing back

Hi Traders,

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ANALYSIS

As predicted in my previous post, the WTI Oil (now at USD 59.81) started a major downtrend on Oct 10 and it is on way to reach the target in the USD 55-54 area (see the weekly chart).

It should then bounce back to the area USD 65-66.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The daily chart and the weekly chart clearly show that the whole set of Elliott waves and sub-waves is religiously in place, confirming the assumption of the completion of major wave 4 and the start of a new downtrend (major wave 5)

Major wave 4 (in the monthly and weekly charts) was supposed to be made out of three or seven waves. In fact, it formed an a-b-c in the weekly chart which is equivalent to a seven waves pattern displayed in the monthly chart


CONCLUSION

The WTI OIL is on the way to complete five waves down to USD 55-54 (see 4-hours chart). After the completion, it's expected to stage a three retracement-waves up to USD 65-66 (see the monthly chart).





monthly chart - click to enlarge






weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hours chart - click to enlarge












Monday, 3 September 2018

WTI OIL: end of the line?

Hi Traders,

Although the WTI OIL (now at 70.34) can still edge up a bit, it might not make it higher than 72.60 and the long awaited major downturn could set in soon. Targets: the area 68-67 followed by the supports at 64-63 and 61-60.


ELLIOTT WAVES


The weekly chart reveals that the inclination of wave 2 is perfectly identical to the inclination of wave 4 (see the gray lines) and this might be a indication that wave 4 just topped.

Previously, wave 2 topped and reversed after touching the inclination line. Similarly, wave 4 touched the inclination line at 75.34. This could be a top as well.

In addition, the top of wave 4 coincides with a major resistance (see the weekly chart

Most importantly, the daily chart clearly shows that the whole set of Elliott waves and sub-waves is religiously in place, confirming the assumption of the completion of major wave 4. See also the possible target at 72.26-72.60.

IDENTICAL INCLINATION

Identical inclination means that WTI OIL gained the same average dollars each week in both wave 2 and wave 4. Let's see how:

- Wave 2 lasted 99 weeks, from a low at 74.94 to a top at 112.20. Gain: 37.26
Average weekly gain: $0.37

- wave 4 lasted 128 weeks, from a low at 27.69 to a top at 75.34. Gain: 47.65
Average weekly gain: $0.37   

NOTE: W.D. Gann - and very few others later - developed studies about the interaction between a price unit ($0.37) and a time unit (1 week) in order to pinpoint time turning points

Unfortunately I don't possess the knowledge and the technology to indulge in such a time consuming study. However, I sometimes use "Time Turning Points" as further confirmation of the Elliott waves events, like the contemporary completion of major wave 4 in conjunction with a TTP.


CONCLUSION

Given that major wave 4 seems to be complete, the uptrend that started on Jan 20, 2016 appears to be over and the WTI OIL might soon head South.





weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hours chart - click to enlarge













Monday, 20 August 2018

Gold to rebound?

Hi Traders,

XAUUSD (now at 1184) bottomed at 1160 and started a new rally. Target 1235 and 1250.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The identification of the Elliott Waves often poses some real challenges when it comes to some complex waves labelled by the purists "wyz-x-wyz". Hence, f
or the time being, I prefer to avoid that fancy stuff and stick to the hypothesis of a wedge formation, labelled 1-2-3-4. See the weekly chart.

Whatever you choose to call it, this kind of pattern can lead to very contradictory outcomes 
in the very long run. Let's see how.

1) Gold might stage a fifth wave up (wave e) with a "throw over" to the area 1433-1627 (see the weekly chart).
2) Gold might get to the 1337 area and then sink to the area 882-845 (see the monthly chart)
3) Finally, if the pattern on show right now is not a wedge (a-b-c-d) but just a  simple a-b-c, there could be a temporary rally to 1235-1250 followed by a  downtrend to the area 882-845.

Whatever it happens, all these postulations have just one thing in common: Gold should reach the 1235-1250 area.

CONCLUSION:  

With the exception of the above targets, there are too many possible outcomes to be able to identify the most likely pattern in  the long runIt is, therefore, wiser to stick to the close targets (see the 4-hours and the daily charts) and wait for more data.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge






Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge







Sunday, 19 August 2018

YUAN: Top & Reverse

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH, (the inverse of Chinese Yuan), now at 6.83, topped and reversed the sharp rally started on March 27, as predicted in my previous post. Next target: 6.69.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and the daily charts showes that the USDCNH staged a very sharp rally by means of a five-pattern-wave. Unfortunately, given the limited history of the USDCNH, there are not enough elements to predict the most likely long term wave pattern.

At present, the only direction seems to be down and the most likely targets seem to be 6.686 and 6.60. See the blue horizontal lines in the daily chart.   

The 4-hours chart shows the big reversal pattern and all the other waves of lower degree.







Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge










Monday, 6 August 2018

The USDCNH to top soon?

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH, (the inverse of Chinese Yuan), now at 6.84, has reached the target area at 6.86-6.92 where it stopped and reversed the sharp rally started on March 27, at least temporarily.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and the daily charts show that the USDCNH has reached the target area (the blue horizontal lines) where it was expected to top. 

However, this might not be the "big reverse" that the Elliott Wave people are  waiting for. In fact, the wave count looks incomplete and it might not be final.

More exactly, this pattern seems to suggest that we reached the top of minor wave three (on the 4-hours and 1-hour chart) and the Yuan is probably unfolding minor wave four to the 6.77-6.76 area (see the targets in the weekly chart, blue horizontal lines)

The 4-hours chart shows a big reversal candlestick and the 1-hour chart shows that, although it could bounce back to 6.88, the Yuan is actually ready to resume the new downtrend.







Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge





1-hour chart. Click to enlarge






Thursday, 2 August 2018

The pound to resume the downtrend?

Hi traders,

The GBPUSD (now at 1.31182) shows extreme weakness and should resume the downtrend to 1.30.


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly
and weekly charts show that the Pound is unfolding "major wave five" (downward) with a very long term target below 1.18.

The daily, 4-hours and 1-hour charts reveal that we are witnessing the last leg of the very minor wave 5 (downward) that should take the Pound to 1.30.



Monthly chart. Click to enlarge





Weekly chart. Click to enlarge





Daily chart. Click to enlarge





4-hours chart. Click to enlarge





1-hour chart. Click to enlarge