Gold has been trending down since September 2011. Is there a chance of hitting an absolute minimum in the upcoming months? Are we on the verge of new major uptrend?
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GOLD - ANALYSIS
As I said in my previous newsletters, after the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) on May 19, the message from the 21 European Central Banks is very clear: European gold sales are almost over.
I also said that this is supposed to happen only after September 27, 2014 when the fourth CBGA is going to be enforced. Note that the FED quantitative easing is supposed to end around mid October 2014 as well. This is likely to bring weakness to both Stocks & Commodities and strengthen the USD for a short time.
Gold (now at $1235.00) reached the target at 1226 as predicted (see daily chart) and might rebound to 1252 and the area $1266-69 to form wave 4 (see targets in the 4-hour chart). This would soon be followed by another leg down to the area 1211.71-1207.97 and lower.
There's a good chance for Gold to finally sink to a new "historical low" at 1064-1054 or a bit further down to $1089 and the area $1043-$1032. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to a forecast of $1050 as a primary low.
This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable.
If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow.
first up to 1252 and maybe the area $1266-69
then down to
T1: the area 1211.71-1207.97
T2: the area 1179-1180
T1: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
T2: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
T3: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)
Weekly chart - click to enlarge
Daily chart - click to enlarge
Four-hour chart - click to enlarge