Sunday, 3 February 2013

WTI Oil, Sunday February 3, 2013

Hi Traders

Many stop loss went burst on Friday due to a volatile session. No wonder: Wti Oil is a volture's market by definition. That's to say, we need to pay twice as much attention to identify setups, triggers and entry points.

As you can see in the weekly chart below, the Oil seems to undergo a "two step pattern" which is basically a 1-2-3 up.

Possible SETUP

The chart could get to the area around $99.30-50, then some  zig-zag retracement down (a-b-c-d-e) to the area around $94 followed but a top around $101.8.


click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit



There's always some Fibonacci simmetry in these two-step-patterns.

In this case - as in the daily chart below - if we project the 76.4% of major wave 1 (grey, font14) from point 2 (grey, font14), we get level $101.8.

SITUATION
The Oil is now trying to complete wave 3 out of 5.



click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit
 
 
 
As you see in the 4h-chart below, minor wave 5 (of wave 3) is almost complete. There should be one more little rally to $99.30-50 before the temporary reversal that starts wave 4.
 
ENTRY POINT
 
Our indicators show that it's almost the moment to get in for a quick long to $99.30-50, provided that your get a nice candlestick reversal in the 5-15 min chart, maybe around $97.30-97.15.
 
  • The "Wave" oscillator (similar to Bolliger bands) warns us that the session on Monday could be slowly downwards during the day (Sydney time)
  • The Awesome Oscillator didn't get to zero yet - therefore wait for it.
  • the Stochastic is not oversold yet
 
 
 click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit



In the 1-hour chart below there are 5 nice waves down (a-b-c-d-e) and a Reversal Candle. Still, it may retrace to $97.30-97.15 were the should be another reversal candle.



click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit


Thursday, 31 January 2013

Comparing Indices, Thursday January 31, 2013

Hi Traders,

The technique of comparing charts is a useful if things get a bit confused. What is a mistery in one chart maybe clear in another one, especially when it comes to:
  • labelling waves
  • and checking the correlation amongst indices
SITUATION

Each index has almost completed all waves up and the last wave has already made 3 ripples out of 5, as the S&P500 clearly shows.

Consequently, we assume that the other indices with a strong correlation to S&P500 sit in the same situation.

Furthermore, the volatility dropped drammatically in each index after wave 4 and candle's real bodies shrank significantly and so the trading volume.

These are indications to me that the big investors have left already or are leaving now the stock markets.

Furthermore, even if the S&P500 as reached its target at 1,500 it might retrace a bit and re-test it.

The FT100 as well is already on target at 6,300 and might retrace a bit and re-test this top.

Other  indices might still have some little ground to cover. ie: DAX to 8,000, DJ to 14,000 and SPI200 to 5,000.

After this top a contraction of a major grade will take place.

TRADING
Better wait for the major downturn and a good reversal candlestick in the 15min and 1h charts before going short.

DAX30 daily

Starting a retracement Zig-Zag (ripple 4), then maybe rally to the resistance at 8,000.


click the chart below to enlarge and "esc" to exit.




DJ30 daily

Definitevely more volatile then the Dax. That gap after wave 2 looks like an exaustion gap. Starting a retracement Zig-Zag (ripple 4), then maybe rally to the resistance at 14,000.


click the chart below to enlarge and "esc" to exit.



S&P500

The significant difference with the DJ above is that the S&P500 is already on target at 1,500. It might retrace with a zig-zag and test the same resistance again.


click the chart below to enlarge and "esc" to exit. 

 
 
FT100

This was really hard to label. Also, there's no gap after wave 4. The Footsie seems to be already on target: 6,300. It might retrace and re-test this top.



click the chart below to enlarge and "esc" to exit.



SPI200

It might retrace to 4,660 (blue line) and rally to 5,000 (It's about the time!)



click the chart below to enlarge and "esc" to exit

 
 
 





 

Tuesday, 29 January 2013

STOCK INDICES, Tuesday 29, 2013

Hi Traders,


First, just let you know that I will host a free trading webinar and presented by ChaseJonesFX, the stockbroker I recently started co-operating with.

To login to this week’s webinar please follow- http://www.elliottwaves.com.au/webinar/free-trading-webinar or visit www.elliottwaves.com.au

PASSWORD = chasejonesfx

Webinar's Discussion Points: setting up your charts to identify Elliott Waves, Pivot point and Candlesticks trade set ups. The webinar will last 1 hour. Please feel free to ask any questions during the webinar.

Secondly, many thanks to Vikram Singh - one of our active traders and member of Sydney Traders - whom kindly allowed me to use his broadband as mine runs pathetically slow.
 
Following: the situation of some stock indices
 
SITUATION
 
DJ30
 
Elliott Waves
As in the monthly chart below the DJ30 has gone up in 4 waves and it's completend the chart with wave 5, the latter being "the 5th of the 5th" since feb 2009.
 
Fibonacci
As you can see the Fibonacci expansion applied to wave 1&2 and the one applied to wave 3&4 concide around a couple of targets: 14,300 and maybe 15,400.
 
Moreover, let's make the amplitude between 4 (dark blue, font 11) and 1 (light blue, font 9) equal to 100%.
 
Then let's project this distance from point 4  (light blue, font 9) upwards. At level 61.8% we have 14,300 once again. At level 100% we have 15,400.
 
This clusters of Fib-Nodes are names Confluences (K) and are usually likely targets.

click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit
 

This clusters of Fib-Nodes are names Confluences (K) and are usually likely targets.

Conclusion

The weekly chart below shows only 3 waves up (top right) out of 5. This means that wave 3 will be soon completed soon, followed by the retracement wave 4 and the last impulse wave up to tartget 14,300 (top red line).

now, if there is no further wave extension the market will complete this upward cycle to 14,300 and maybe 15,400 within few weeks. Then it will retrace down for month.

But, if there is one or more wave extensions - maybe due to FED expansion policy - the market will point North for months.

 
 click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit












 
 
 

Sunday, 27 January 2013

EURJPY, Sunday, January 27, 2013

Hi Traders,


First, just let you know that I will host a free trading webinar and presented by ChaseJonesFX, the stockbroker I recently started co-operating with.

To login to this week’s webinar please follow- http://www.elliottwaves.com.au/webinar/free-trading-webinar or visit  www.elliottwaves.com.au

PASSWORD = chasejonesfx 

Webinar's Discussion Points: setting up your charts to identify Elliott Waves, Pivot point and Candlesticks trade set ups. The webinar will last 1 hour. Please feel free to ask any questions during the webinar.

Secondly, many thanks to Vikram Singh - one of our active traders and member of Sydney Traders - with whom I recently discussed some application of the "Awesome Oscillator" to identify safer entry points within the Elliott Waves (see some comments below). 



EURJPY ANALYSIS


To start I'd like to draw a parallel with another competitive devaluation of the YEN in history as it happened during the great depression under the Finance Minister Takahashi Korekiyo.

To bring Japan out of the Great Depression of 1929, he instituted dramatically expansionary monetary and fiscal policy, abandoning the gold standard in December 1931, and running deficits with considerable success before being assassinated in 1936 for his attempt to reduce the military expenditures.

Well, here we go again.

In Feb 2012 the BOJ started an action that brought the YEN almost 20% down against USD and, from July 2012, the YEN lost over 28% against the EUR.

Just bear in mind that this is just the beginning of the sequence of Elliott waves.


SITUATION

As you can see in the Monthly chart below the EURJPY started wave-1-up with some insane volatility. There's no candlestick reversal in sight yet. However, there seem to be a resistance in the area 123.34-124.38.

click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit



The weekly chart below shows that wave 3 (out of 5) retraced almost exactly 61.8% of the last downtrend. Level 123.3 is also the 38.2% retracement of the downtrend started in Aug 2008.

This coincidence forms a so called confluence (K) and it's the area where the retracement caused by the new wave 4 could start soon.  



click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit




Yet, in the daily chart below there's no Reversal Candlestick in sight. However there are 4 contact points in the channels - see the blue ellipses - meaning that we're almost there and there's the chance of a reversal and a breakout of the channel soon (downwards).



click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit





The 4-hour chart below demonstrates that, often, when the "Awesome Oscillator" indulge around zero we have a good buy signal as it happened with wave 2 and wave 4. 









Finally, there seem to be only 4 waves out of five in the 1-hour chart below, meaning that, when the correction (wave 4) is completed, a very last attempt upwards should occur (wave 5). 

No buy signal yet from the "Awesome Oscillator" as the little retracement wave 4 is not completed yet.













Saturday, 19 January 2013

EURUSD, Sunday, January 20, 2012

Hi Traders and Happy 2013,

Before getting into our usual analysis let's see what's on for 2013. I've signed up as agreement with a British Stockbroker (to be revealed soon) to get good trading conditions as well as some other benefits  for our members.


They're also in charge of scheduling/organising our Elliott Waves & Candlesticks Courses, Webinars and Meetups all around Australia. This means that I will  have much more time to run courses, webinars and newsletters. More details very soon. 


Finally, we have a new Trading Meetup: http://www.meetup.com/CairnsTrader.

Please also check our existing Trading Meetups, Facebook and Websites:

Websites, Facebook, Blog and Linkedin: 


http://www.ElliottWaves.com.au
http://www.FXTutors.com.au
http://www.facebook.com/elliott.waves.1
http://au.linkedin.com/in/sydneytraders

Trading Meetups:

http://www.SydneyTraders.com.au
http://www.meetup.com/OptionTrading
http://www.MelbourneTraders.com.au
http://www.BrisbaneTraders.com.au
http://www.PerthTraders.com.au
http://www.AdelaideTraders.com.au
http://www.GoldCoastTraders.com.au
http://www.meetup.com/CairnsTrader



EURUSD - SITUATION


Check the monthly chart below: since the top in July 2007 the EURUSD entered a huge trading range between 1.60 and 1.19 labelled 1-2-3-4.


From the last top at 4, EURUSD performed 5 waves down to 1.2043, followed by the last rally to 1.34. 


The rally in parole looks very much like a two-step-pattern which, at completion, would bring soon a new downtrend.


Basically, if this analysis is correct,  the pair is performing a well known 5-3-5 starting from the last top at 4, with 5 waves down and 3 waves up (the two-step-pattern) likely to be followed by another set of 5 waves down.




click the chart to enlarge and esc to exit




See the two-step-pattern (1-2-3) in the weekly chart below.


NOTE: if there's no further breakout above level 1.34, the downtrend will start earlier (if not immediately) as it happens with double top formations (in the 4-hour chart well below).


Instead, if it goes through level 1.34, it should make a new top within the range 1.3450-1.3558), as per Fibonacci calculations.

Consequently, now - or after this new top - the downtrend should resume. Possible targets: 1.1916, 1.1532 and 1.1244, the latter being my favourite.



click the chart to enlarge and esc to exit




In the daily chart below there's the evidence that the uptrend is finished (double top) or almost finished. Just click and enlarge the chart and check the very last numbers in green (1-2-3-4-5)

Wave 5 - in green - is a bit suspicious. Although it's good enough and it  shows a good reversal candlestick (engulfing pattern) it looks a bit too short, meaning that it might attempt to break up again a bit higher.





click the chart to enlarge and esc to exit






See the double top in the 4-hour chart below but be careful: there could be some minor waves up in case it gets through level 1.34 to form a new top within the range 1.3450-1.3558).




click the chart to enlarge and esc to exit





In the 1-hour chart below see the (theoretical) completion of 5 waves up with the formation of a double top



click the chart to enlarge and esc to exit




CONCLUSION

If there's going to be a major downturn we certainly want to be part of it but it's hard to identify an entry point at this stage till we figure out weather this is a genuine double top.

ENTRY POINT

The attention must now shift to another set of charts: 4-hour, 1 hour, 15-min and 5-min. Reversal Candlesticks showed up in every chart from daily downwards and this is good enough to me to SHORT at 1.3350 although I never enter the market before 5.30pm (Australian Eastern Time).

If the chart goes well above that level, there's the chance that the double top is not genuine

FINALLY

Some might argue that there are not sound economic/financial reasons for such a move down at these stage. Is the USD going to strength or is the EUR weakening? The truth is that we don't really need a reason. We're Elliott Guys.






Thursday, 29 November 2012

SPI200, Thursday NOV 29, 2012

Hi Traders,

 
Before getting into my analysis, please take note that I will run a course in January in Sydney: TRADING WITH ELLIOTT WAVES AND FIBONACCI.
 
 
HOW LONG: It's a 3 day course, 6 hour/day, 10am-1pm & 2pm-5pm.
 
WHERE: State Library of NSW, Macquarie St, Sydney
 
WHEN: Friday, Jan 18, Saturday Jan 19 and Sunday Jan 20.
 
HOW MUCH: $2,870 for early birds (by Friday, Jan 11) reduced from $3,020. Save $150! Non members: $3,170.
 
Bonus! 4 weeks of The Elliott Waves Newsletter twice a week, on Wednesday and Sunday.
 
HOW: There will be very little blah-blah and you will be asked to practise on paper charts and your laptop straight away. Check the content HERE
 
We will identify set ups and triggers on a wide range of FX & Commodity Charts and we will setup your trading platform to be ready to trade straight away.
 
My teachings are structured in progressive stages: every bit of information will be followed but practical application on real charts.
 
 
 
  

------------------------------------
 

SPI200: SETUP & TRIGGER

Note that, to make things more clear, I no longer show displaced moving averages on charts.


 SETUP
 
The SPI200 future seems ready for the very last (little) rally that would start a major bearish reversal.


Last week I said that we were starting a rally - heading to the area around 4686 - and the rally occurred promptly. I also said that this rally might stop running early - in the area 4565-4583 - hence staging a double top.

However there's now a good chance for it to stop even earlier: around 5414-17. Consequently: keep your eyes open for a reversal candlestick.
 
TIMING:
 
Some Fibonacci calculations reveal the chance of the top around Dec 10-11 if this uptrend pace slows down significantly. If it doesn't, we don't have more then 2 trading days
 
TRIGGER
 
To my knowledge, it might not be worth going long. Just wait for the reversal candlestick on the 5min and 15min chart, bearing in mind that it might happen during our sleeping time.

 

SITUATION


The whole pattern, is a huge retracement wave 2 down (see "e2", bottom right), started in April 2010 and it's shaping a "1-2-3-4-5" pointing down, as in the monthly chart below. We are currently completing leg 4 up.

Leg 4 up is part of correction wave "2" made out of the above mentioned 5 legs and ending down in the area named "e2", the lower cluster of horizontal lines.


Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
















The blue channel - weekly chart below - shows that the major wave 4 (in red, top right, font 12, near the apex of the triangle) is, in turn, made of 5 waves itself. The 5th one is now heading to 4555 and it's theoretically supposed to reach the upper channel line at 4628.
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.







In the daily chart below, the last wave up stopped at 4482 which is exactly the 61.8% retracement of wave 1 in red. However, it should be heading to 4514-17 if it overcomes this resistance

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.








The 4hour chart below doesn't show any sign of a reversal candlestick yet augmenting the probability to reach 4514-17



 



and so the 1hour chart below




Sunday, 18 November 2012

SPI200, Sunday, Nov 18, 2012

Hi Traders,

 
Before getting into my analysis, please take note that I will run a course in January in Sydney: TRADING WITH ELLIOTT WAVES AND FIBONACCI.
 
 
HOW LONG: It's a 3 day course, 6 hour/day, 10am-1pm & 2pm-5pm.
 
WHERE: State Library of NSW, Macquarie St, Sydney
 
WHEN: Friday, Jan 18, Saturday Jan 19 and Sunday Jan 20.
 
PRICE: $2,870 for early birds (by Friday, Jan 11) reduced from $3,020. Save $150! Non members: $3,170.
 
Bonus! 4 weeks of The Elliott Waves Newsletter twice a week, on Wednesday and Sunday.
 
HOW: There will be very little blah-blah and you will be asked to practise on paper charts and your laptop straight away. Check the content HERE
 
We will identify set ups and triggers on a wide range of FX & Commodity Charts and we will setup your trading platform to be ready to trade straight away.
 
My teachings are structured in progressive stages: every bit of information will be followed but practical application on real charts.


 
 
 
 
------------------------------------
 

SPI200: SETUP & TRIGGER

Note that, to make things more clear, I no longer show displaced moving averages on charts.

SETUP
 
The SPI200 future closed at  4359 and it seems ready for the very last rally that would form a major top followed by a major bearish reversal.

If the wave count is correct, we're heading to the area around 4686. If the rally  stops running early - in the area 4565-4583 - it will stage a double top.
 
TIMING:
 
Some Fibonacci calculations reveal the chance of the top around Dec 10-11 or Jan 7-8
 
TRIGGER
 
The trigger occurred already. It's made of 4 elements identifiable in the 15 min chart (last chart below):
 
  • 5 waves down - of the smallest grade (in red)
  • Candlestick Reversal
  • A set of waves made of wave 1 and 2 (in blue)
  • A double bottom
 
SITUATION

The whole pattern, a huge retracement wave 2 down (see "e2", bottom right), started in April 2010 and it's shaping a "1-2-3-4-5" pointing down, as in the monthly chart below. We are currently completing leg 4 up.

Leg 4 up is part of correction wave "2" made out of the above mentioned 5 legs and ending in the area named "e2", the lower cluster of horizontal lines.


Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

 
  
 
The blue channel - weekly chart below - shows that the major wave 4 (in red, top right,  font 12, near the apex of the triangle) is, in turn,  made of 5 waves itself. The 5th one is not there yet and it's supposed to reach the upper channel line or cross it a bit.
 
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
  
 

  


In the daily chart below, wave 1 turned out to be an over-extended wave and wave 3 a regular one. The new wave 5 should be similar to wave 3.

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 
 
 

  
Note the reversal candlestick in the 4-hour chart below. The first expected resistance should be around 4421, given the confluence of few Fib-nodes.
 
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

 
 
 
The 1-hour chart below shows another possible resistance around 4400.

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.

  
 

 
 
 
Finally, the 15min chart below shows a nearly perfect TRIGGER.
 
This trigger occurred already. It's made of 4 elements identifiable in the 15 min chart (last chart below) as:

  • 5 Waves Down - of the smallest grade (in red) - prior the reversal.
  • Candlestick Reversal.
  • A set of waves made of wave 1 and 2 (in blue).
  • A double bottom.
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

Thursday, 1 November 2012

FT100, Thursday Nov 1, 2012

Hi Traders,

If my wave count is right the FT100 has lost the last chance to over around the 5,700 area and it's heading south.

The monthly chart below (sorry, i don't have much history) shows the completion of 5 waves up and the 1-2-3-4 in red. Note the log shadows in the last 3 candles, clearly a sign of weakness.

 



Check the weekly chart below. The FT100 reached the top level 4-5 times but shows great weakness . Check the red Displaced MA (DiNapoli). It shows a Double Repo, meaning that it's quite bearish.



 
 


The daily chart below shows the completion of 5 waves up, wave 1 and 2 in red and a breakout. Time to take your short position. It also shows a double top made of wave 5 and wave 2.




 


In the 4-hour chart below there's a reversal candlestick (4) within a down channel that has been touched 5 times




 


The 1-hour chart below shows wave 1 and 2 out of 5. Good entry point.




Tuesday, 30 October 2012

S&P500, Tuesday OCT 30, 2012

Hi Traders,

I've been asked whether I'm still bullish on S&P500. I do, and I'm still in, although I've been stopped out twice in a row and I'm dangerously close to my stop loss.

It's not stubbornness. I just reviewed my analysis and it doesn't seem to be wrong.

I suggest to go straight to the 1-hour chart to see the double bottom. More urgently, check the 15 min chart to see the Candlestick reversal and the perfect entry point.

SITUATION

Basically nothing has changed as you can see in the weely chart below. Clearly, we now need the last jump up, meaning the last wave 5 up.

Possible targets: 1530, 1628, 1740, 1755 and 1855, the most likely target area being 1740-1755.
Also, what's going to be the effect of the incoming election on S&P500









In the daily chart below the S&P500 touches the magenta channel for the 4th time. Although I don't see a candlestick reversal I see a lot of doji candles, meaning that
  • there's not market (hurricane Sandy)
  • there's no apparent intention to go down 
BUT ...







The Elliott wave's count in the 4-hour chart below shows the completion of 5 waves down, a nice double bottom and a candlestick reversal (bottom right).







In the 1-hour chart below we have a triple bottom, the completion of 5 waves down and a Stochastic positive divergence.









In the 15-min chart below we have a triple bottom, the completion of 5 waves down, a nice reversal candlestick and the new waves 1 and 2, the latter being the perfect entry point.