Thursday 12 April 2012

EURUSD, Thursday, April 12, 2012

Euro monhly chart below started wave C down to 1.260-1.245. Theoretically this should be a 5 waves down.  Stochastic on the way down again.

Note the yellow arrows: next June will mark 11 years since the major low in June 2001. Do we have to wait till June 2013 to complete 144 month and see a turning point? (Gann-Fibonacci number).

White globes in the weekly chart below warn that we touched the channel 5 times. This means that: 1) this wave could be short, 2) it could take longer then usual, 3) the inclination could be mild, 4) there will be a breakout and the chart will leave the channel. The stochastic confirms the downtrend.

The daily chart below shows a double top, the whole patttern looks similar to a Head and Shoulder and wave 2 (turquoise color) is completed. All confirmations that the first target should be 1.26930.

The 5 wave retracement up in the 4hour chart below almost touched the 38% around 1.316. Stochastic in bearish divergence

Wednesday 11 April 2012

AUDUSD, Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Big Apologies. I thing I got the wrong wave count about the Aussie.

The new wave count in the monthly chart below shows that we completed 5 waves up and also the retracement waves A and B.

This goes a bit against the rules as major wave 4 is well into the territory of major wave 1.

The new long term target is around 0.86875 and 0.79491 that coincides with the DiNapoli Confluences (K).

This is consistent with the bleak view of the IMF (Internation Monetary Fund) about the Commodity price for the next decade. The Reserve Bank's Commodity Price Index also peaked in August, and was down by almost 10 per cent in March.

Also, there is the chance that the whole Major Wave Cycle (1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C) will last exactly 144 month (12 years), from April 2001 to the end of March 2013.

The weekly chart below shows that we started wave C - down - over 6 weeks ago with a possible target around 0.91775. Keep an eye on level 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%

In the daily chart below the first leg of Wave C is structured in a  common a-b-c-d-e-X-a-b-c-d-e, also known as the 5-3-5 retracement wave. If this wave is correct it will be followed by a rally to level 38.2% (1.04685) or higher. 

See the "hammer" in  the 4hour chart below as it often occurs at the end of "wave e". It's a reversal pattern up and it shows the beginning of a temporary pullback.

The 4 yellow triangles are a warning that we touched the bounderies of the blue channel 4 times and there is a chance of breakout.

The hammer is confirmed by another reversal up: the "engulfing pattern" of the 1hour chart below.

Finally the 15min chart below shows 9 waves up, which is equivalent to a 5 wave pattern up. It's the beginning of the pulback described in the daily chart.

Tuesday 10 April 2012

SPI200, April 10, 2012

Is the SPI200 at the end of the line?

If the wave count is correct in the weekly chart below, wave 5 might be over. Usually, a breakout occurs after 4 contact points of the channel boundaries. Will it be on the downside?

This is confirmed by the 4H chart below that shows  4 contact points of another channel: the one enveloping the first wave down.  Note that a 9 wave pattern is equal to a 5 wave pattern.

Usually there is a little pull back before starting the new downtrend and also a breakout of the channel.  The targets for the pullback are at 4322 (38%), 4335 (50%) and 4348 (61.8%). All of them could be entry points.

Any value above could imply that the whole Elliott Wave count is wrong.

The 1H chart below ahows that the pull back could stop also at 4309-4316. Finally, to limit the risk, you may want to enter at the breakout of the strong support at 4295