Thursday 2 April 2015

AUDUSD , still moving down

Hi Traders, 

The AUDUSD reached the area I suggested since early 2014 at 0.7590-0.7528 - see green horizontal lines in the monthly chart - and I  honestly thought that the ultimate low was going to be around 0.7501.

However the wave count in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts suggests that the downtrend may not be over yet.

Hence, in case there's a breakout of the support at 0.7501 - with or without some help from the RBA next week - the AUDUSD might finally sink to the next target at 0.7277-0.7241. 

Check the pair of horizontal blue lines in the monthly chart to visually identify the target areas.


likely: 0.7501
possibly: 0.7424-0.7386
maybe: 0.7267-0.7222


The monthly and weekly charts display that we are reaching the bottom of major wave 4. See the NOTE below.

The 1-hour chart reveals that we still have some little way down to complete wave 5 (in green).

The 1-hour chart further clarifies that this wave 5 is still at the beginning, having completed only sub-waves 1, 2 and maybe 3 (in green) out of 5.

Hence, once the small wave 3 is fully formed, the AUDUSD should bounce back to level 0.76 to form a very small wave 4 in the 1-hour chart.

In turn, the latter will be followed by the small wave 5 to 0.75001 or down to 0.7277-0.7241.

NOTE: Once the entire set of five waves occurred in each time framethis will automatically enforce the "rule of the multiple 5s" ("the 5th of the 5th of the 5th" rule).

This is the most important tool of the Elliott Waves Theory to identify major TTPs (Time Turning Points).


If major wave 4 ends in the area 0.7277-0.7241, it will match 100% the length of major wave 2 - see the monthly chart.

Furthermore, that area also marks a Fibonacci "Confluence" (K) where two major Fibo Nodes (61.8% and 76.4%) coincide. See the monthly chart.


monthly chart - click to enlarge




weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Sunday 29 March 2015

Easter Holidays and Apologies

Hi Traders,

Apologies for not publishing new analysis lately but I'll be utterly busy approximately till April 12.

However, feel free to call me for a quick chat through Skype at "mariodconti".
Just bear in mind that I'm usually in my office 4pm-11.30pm, Sydney Time (Australia).

In meantime, Happy Easter Holidays.

Mario D Conti