Wednesday 9 April 2014

AUDUSD reversing?

Hi Traders,

Although I was expecting the AUDUSD to get to 0.9388 it  might have reached the top at 0.93656 and start reversing. It's now at 0.9350.

This new downtrend might take the Aussie down to 0.8578-0.8509 or even 0.8160-0.8067 in 5 waves.


There's still a chance of a last minute jump to 0.9388 before reversing.


As in the monthly chart, the AUDUSD as completed 4 waves out of 5 and started wave 5 downwards. Typically, this wave will be performed in 5 waves of a smaller degree.

At present we're staging the beginning of wave 5 downwards- see 1-hour chart


Enter your trade only when you have a valid cross of the 2 inner lines in See the W.O. build on the daily chart. Remember to place your "trailing stop" according to the "instructions" from the wave oscillator.

monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

wave oscillator over the daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge 

Sunday 6 April 2014

EURUSD almost down to target, then rebound

Hi Traders,

The EURUSD (now at 1.3700) should bottom at 1.3662-1.3634 and rebound to 1.3740-1.3748 in the short term. Afterwards, the downtrend to 1.30 should resume.


first down: 1.3662-1.3634
then up to: 1.3740-1.3748

then down again:

likely: 1.3489 - 1.3453
possibly: 1.3266 - 1.3182
maybe: 1.2993 - 1.2967


EURUSD and S&P 500 seem to be correlated lately. They both developed an orthodox top and started a "flat" with an irregular top higher than the orthodox top (wave 2 in green in the weekly chart).


The irregular top at 1.3955 was in perfect synch with the cycle of 20-21 weeks (wave 2 in green in the weekly chart).


The weekly chart shows the orthodox top at 1.3298. The Irregular top brought in the picture the perfect confirmation of "the end of the line": a "throw over" of the upper line of the giant triangle accompanied by an absolute top at 1.3455 (see the weekly chart).

Both the throw over and the irregular top in the "flat" often occur after an extended wave. In this case the extension occurred within wave 3 of a "two-step pattern" (1-2-3).


Note the reversal "Hammer" in the monthly chart


As expected, the WO didn't deliver any entry point for this short as it wasn't safe enough. It will happen when the next downtrend resumes.


The expectation and the subsequent implementation of an impending "European quantitative easing" could be the fundamental reason for this  downtrend.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

 Daily chart, click to enlarge

Wave oscillator applied to the daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hour chart, click to enlarge