Time Analysis of S&P500, Tuesday May 01, 2013

Hi Traders,

Working on the timing side with Gann and Elliott together takes quite a bit of time but the outcome is amazing!

According to W.D.Gann a trend is "balanced out" when moving along a 45 degrees line, meaning that a "time unit" (a day) must be equal to a "price unit".

Alright. A time unit is "one day" but ... how many index points is a price unit in the S&P500?

I calculated (I might be wrong) that every 36 TRADING days the S&P500 should climb 118.16 points to be on a 45 degree line, meaning 3.2822 points/day which is our "price unit".

Now, check the daily chart below as I found out that, from early June 2012, the S&P500 futures recorded highs and lows every 36 days with a Swiss watch precision!

Furthermore, by combining Elliott Waves and Gann Timing you get a projection of a "possible" calendar day for the next incoming High/Low which should comes to Friday May 24 or Monday May 27, US East Coast Standard Time (a day ahead for Australia).

NOTE: I said High/Low, meaning that can be either one. I can only specify the calendar date.

Finally, take all this with a "pinch of salt" and, please, give me some feedback, included any negative "honest/competent" opinion.

PS: I've repeated this analysis with the SPI200: the new High/Low comes a trading day later.

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For the SPI200 below calculations where a bit more complicated but with the same similar (timing) Swiss precision and outcome, so I won't comment any further.

You may want to contact me for a quick chat. In meantime, check the daily chart below and the weekly chart further down which confirms the same calendar date. 

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Below the weekly chart of the SPI200

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AUDUSD collapsing? Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Hi Traders,

Is the AUDUSD on the verge of starting a new downtrend?  If this analysis is correct  the Aussie has completed an "a-b-c-d" and it's ready for wave "e" downwards.

But this time there's something that worries me: the downtrend could be quite swift and the amplitude of the "depreciation" could be considerable and protracted for quite sometimes.

FUNDAMENTALS

The Budget Deficit is out of control
The government is going to increase taxes which in turn will reduce the  economy expansion
The RBA might lower its cash interest rate.
The Rating Agencies might decide to downgrade the government debt.
China might slow down further

TECHNICAL SETUP

The present rally could soon end by approaching the area of resistance at 1.0351-1.0366. Then, a new downtrend might follow

PROGRESSIVE TARGETS: 0.9788, 0.9386, 0.8516 and 0.8000


SITUATION

The Aussie at 1.0336 is now below the bunch of "displaced" moving averages (see weekly chart below) sitting together within a very narrow range. This usually happens just before the tempest.



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The  daily chart below shows a reversal candlestick in 5D and an unusual spike in the "volume of trades". Note: Even in case the currency pair reaches 1.040-1.0414 it will still be in bearish territory.


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The inverted Head & Shoulder in the 4-hour chart below may be stopped by the area of resistance at 1.0351-1.0366 or at 1.0385.


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See the 1-2-3 below (two-step pattern) in the 1-hour chart that could potentially stop the pair and point "3" (in blue).

Note the reversal engulfing pattern at point "3" and the "wave oscillator" alerting to exit the long position (black vertical line)


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USDJPY, Monday, April 29, 2013

Hi Traders,

Markets never stops to surprising me. I thought the USDJPY was going to hit 101.3 but it didn't. If what I see is a real double top, it's time for a downtrend.

SITUATION

USDJPY seems to have completed 5 waves up at 99.944 and needs to recharge for sometimes by implementing a downtrend with 3-5 major waves down. See the 5 waves up in the weekly chart below.

A double top in the daily charts is now casting dark clouds on the currency pair as in the daily chart below.

See the double top in 4-hour chart below and targets/supports in the area 97.22-97.14 and 96.32-96.19

Now check the entry/exit points of the "wave oscillator" in the same 4-hour chart: 

• the blue lines are the entry points for a long
• the red lines are the entry points for a short
• the black vertical lines are exit point for both trades

See the last red line (right end) showing the short? There's no exit yet.  

EURGBP, Monday April 29, 2013

Hi Traders

SITUATION of EURGBP:

Although the currency pair started now a minor rally to a possible target in the area 0.8463-08473, the down trend will then resume to the area 0.8377-0.8366 and maybe 0.8275-0.8259

SETUP

We  need 5 major waves down to take the pound to 0.7765 in the monthly chart below. 4 of them are in place already (in magenta) and the 5th one is on its way to unfold from point 4 downward. 

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The weekly chart below shows the 4 waves (in magenta) and the start of the last major wave down (wave 5) with a nice 1-2 (in black)


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See the targets in the area 0.8377-0.8366 and 0.8275-0.8259 in the daily chart below 

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And so the target at 0.8473-0.8463 in 4-hour chart below. Note that this minor rally enfolding now is due to the development of minor wave 4 up. See the waves 1-2-3 in black

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Finally, see the "Wave Oscillator" in the 1-hour chart below with faded candles to better show the dynamics of the oscillator which shows a double bottom and the 2 black lines getting together to indicate the start of the new rally.


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