Saturday, 20 October 2012

USDJPY, Sat Oct 20, 2012

Hi Traders,
USDJPY, now at 79.27, moved exactly as predicted.
The uptrend is likely to continue for very long time although this week we will probably see a minor downtrend (see 4-hour and 1-hour  charts below) due to the unfolding of minor wave 4, which is usually a Zig-Zag to the downside. This action should take 1-3 days, then the uptrend should resume.
In the monthly chart below the currency pair has performed a breakout of the magenta channel. Minimum target at 94.00 (horizontal blue line). 
We're also plenty of secondary targets/resistances: 85.13, 88.98, 94.00, 98.94, 102.00 and 105.36, the ones in bold more interesting.
This situation is confirmed by the weekly chart below which shows the completion of wave 1 and 2 in blue, the latter completing 5 waves down. The chart aims now to a target of 85.13 

Having completed wave 1 and 2, the USDJPY is now working to complete wave 3 in 5 waves of a minor grade down (in royal blues and smaller font). More exactly, 3 of these 5 minor grade waves are now completed as in the daily chart below.
The next is wave 4 and it's a Zig-Zag made of 3-5 waves.
The 4-hour chart below shows the completion of wave 3 of a minor grade. This will be followed by wave 4 in a Zig-Zag made of 3-5 waves down. Targets at 78.86 but also at 78.66 and 78.55.

Finally the 1-hour chart below shows that, after completeng wave 3 up (in blue large font), we've done wave 1 (in magenta) sideways.
From now on the USDJPY will retrace down to 78.9 and 78.66 (blue horizontal line). Expect other 3 waves down. 

Sunday, 14 October 2012

USDJPY, Sunday OCT 14, 2012

 Hi Traders,
USDJPY Analysis.

To fully understand this analysis we need to check the USDJPY history. The chart below shows that the USDJPY was fixed at 360 Yen per US Dollar in 1949 till 1971.

This was followed by a 41 years drop till level 74-75 yen for a green back in recent times.

The chart shows that we completed 5 major waves down in Feb 2012. The end of the downtrend is confirmed by the last major wave (5) being sub-divided in 5 waves itself.

The chart below suggest that the first major resistance is around level USDJPY 101.00. Let's see weather this is true (next set of charts).


We have the chance of the best entry point for USDJPY. The Monthly chart below show the completion of the very last wave down and the start of the new uptrend with wave 1 and 2 in blue. The bottom of this little wave 2 is the very best entry point.

The weekly chart below show the completion of wave 1 and 2 up, the latter unfolded in 5 waves down.

And so the daily chart below. Note the very little ripples in blue at the bottom right hand side. Wave 1 and 2 (in font 10) and wave 1 and 2 (in font 8): this is the very best entry point.

Once again:  the 4hour chart below shows wave 1 and 2 (in font 10) and wave 1 and 2 (in font 8). This is the very best entry point!

Finally, the 1hour chart below indicates that the very last retracement wave 2 unfolded in 5 waves down but showed no real intention to retrace much.

AUDUSD, Sunday Oct 14, 2012

Hi Traders,
From time to time I like indulging in some time calculation. Look what i found.
To start, let me recall that:
  • In 1967 the AUD was pegged to USD at the rate of 1.12USD
  • On Sep 9, 1973 it was adjusted to 1.4885USD
  • On Dec 12, 1983 the AUD was floated
  • On Apr 2001 it reached the lowest low at 0.4775USD.
I have drawn vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart below, starting from the low on Apr 2001.

In terms of Elliott Waves, the AUD is now performing an a-b-c-d-e slightly down and then up

i.e: the chart is moving down to complete wave "e". After completion, it would finally move up for the last 5-9 waves.

Consequently there's a chance for the AUD to end its sideway move by completing "wave e" down in early Dec 2012 (see vertical line marked "141", top-right of the monthly chart).
If this is correct, early Dec 2012 would be the starting point of the very last Elliott wave up (the 5th, of the 5th, of the 5th) which should end by April 8-9, 2013 (see vertical line marked 144, top-right of the monthly chart).
April 8-9 2013 will mark the completion of a Fibonacci time cycle of 144 month, from the low at 0.4775 in April 2001.
Now, getting back to the vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart, starting from April 2001. There's a periodicity of 47 month between major low and tops and viceversa.
  • Apr 2001 (Low) - Feb 2005 (top), 47 month
  • Mar 2005 (Top) - Dec 2008 (low), 47 month
  • Jan 2009 (low ) - Dec 2012, 47 month (end of waves 1-2-3-4 and start of 5 ?). See vertical line marked 141 (month).
If this is true, minor wave 5 up might last only 4 month, (Dec 2012- Apr 2013).


By using Fibonacci projections we have a DiNapoli Confluence (an aggregation of Fib-nodes) at 1.12USD - Waw! History repeats! - although we have another possible confluence at 1.32-133 USD.


The monthly chart below shows that we are now working to complete 5 waves sideways (ending in Dec 2012).
This should be done with an a-b-c-d-e (labelled in red, on the far upper right).
Wave a-b-c-d are completed but we are not done yet with wave "e" which is bearish by definition.
This wave might target the lower (blue) line of the triangle and it will enfold in 5 waves down (as the Elliott rule).
Consequently, in the monthly chart below, the long term trend is down and we expect 5 waves down. We've already marked wave 1 (down) in red.
Once again, we completed wave 1, 2 ,3 and 4 - major grade - from April 2001.
Major wave 5 - which can be broken in 5 waves itself - is now completing wave  4 (of 5) with an a-b-c-d-e, as in the top right hand corner of the monthly chart below.


Note wave 4 enfolding with an a-b-c-d-e in the weekly chart below and note also the double top made out of "d" and number "2". This is the start of leg "e" enfolding in five waves down.
Nice reversal candles at the top of wave "d" and wave "2". Possible tartget around 0.96, then reversal up again to a possible target around 1.12.

Note the double top of the daily chart below. It's made out of wave "d" and wave "2". Note also that the previous uptrend in the blue channel was a "two step pattern", ie: 1,2 and 3 only, which is typical of a retracement wave like wave d.

Nice reversal candles at the end of wave "c", wave "d",  wave "1" and wave 2.

Below in the 4hour chart you see wave 1-2-3-4 and 5 down in the magenta channel followed by a retracement up in 5 waves ending in a double top and two remarcable reversal patterns. Note that the retracement didn't even reach level 38%, definetively a sign of weakness.

Wave 4 in the 1hour chart below enfolds in 5 waves up and 1-2-3 down. The chart is now pushing a zig-zag up (wave 4) and then the 5th wave down. But ... keep focussed! All this is only part of wave 3 down of a major grade! (see weekly chart)