Monday 20 August 2018

Gold to rebound?

Hi Traders,

XAUUSD (now at 1184) bottomed at 1160 and started a new rally. Target 1235 and 1250.


The identification of the Elliott Waves often poses some real challenges when it comes to some complex waves labelled by the purists "wyz-x-wyz". Hence, f
or the time being, I prefer to avoid that fancy stuff and stick to the hypothesis of a wedge formation, labelled 1-2-3-4. See the weekly chart.

Whatever you choose to call it, this kind of pattern can lead to very contradictory outcomes 
in the very long run. Let's see how.

1) Gold might stage a fifth wave up (wave e) with a "throw over" to the area 1433-1627 (see the weekly chart).
2) Gold might get to the 1337 area and then sink to the area 882-845 (see the monthly chart)
3) Finally, if the pattern on show right now is not a wedge (a-b-c-d) but just a  simple a-b-c, there could be a temporary rally to 1235-1250 followed by a  downtrend to the area 882-845.

Whatever it happens, all these postulations have just one thing in common: Gold should reach the 1235-1250 area.


With the exception of the above targets, there are too many possible outcomes to be able to identify the most likely pattern in  the long runIt is, therefore, wiser to stick to the close targets (see the 4-hours and the daily charts) and wait for more data.

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hours chart, click to enlarge

Sunday 19 August 2018

YUAN: Top & Reverse

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH, (the inverse of Chinese Yuan), now at 6.83, topped and reversed the sharp rally started on March 27, as predicted in my previous post. Next target: 6.69.


The weekly and the daily charts showes that the USDCNH staged a very sharp rally by means of a five-pattern-wave. Unfortunately, given the limited history of the USDCNH, there are not enough elements to predict the most likely long term wave pattern.

At present, the only direction seems to be down and the most likely targets seem to be 6.686 and 6.60. See the blue horizontal lines in the daily chart.   

The 4-hours chart shows the big reversal pattern and all the other waves of lower degree.

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hours chart. Click to enlarge