Friday, 16 June 2017

USDJPY: What's Next

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ANALYSIS


The USDJPY (now at 111.36) has just started a new rally to the area 124.1-124.8.



A bit of History

The Historical Chart displays 5 waves downwards from the moment the USA unilaterally terminated the Bretton Woods Agreement in August 1971. See Also YouTube for more info.

Before WWII the USDJPY was two ¥ for one $. In 1948 the USDJPY rate was fixed at 360 ¥ for one $ and this rate was kept till 1972. From that moment on, the YEN slowly recovered to 75 ¥ for one $. It was Oct 31, 2011. 

ELLIOTT WAVES

Which type of Elliott Wave Pattern started off from 2011 onward? At present it looks like a huge a-b-c. See monthly chart and weekly chart.

The daily chart suggests that wave c will probably made out of 5 waves. Wave 1 and 2 (black, font 10) are in place and wave three is on its wave to 118.

The 4-hour chart shows the a-b-c- that made wave 2.

What are the possible targets for the USDJPY? The closest one is 124-125 but a long term Gann projection suggest that it could easily top at 160-180, let alone that the theoretical value is actually 217.




Historical chart. Click to enlarge






Monthly chart. Click to enlarge






Weekly chart. Click to enlarge






Daily chart. Click to enlarge






4-hour chart. Click to enlarge






Thursday, 15 June 2017

USDSGD: WHAT"S NEXT

Hi Traders,

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ANALYSIS

The USDSGD (now at 1.3812) started a rally up. If this is the beginning of major wave five - see monthly chart - it could reach the area 1.464-1.473.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Even if the monthly chart displays five waves up, the latter might not be finished. The weekly chart and the daily chart reveal that the this major wave still miss the last wave up.

The 4-hour chart and the 1-hour chart show that all the waves down are in place and the last wave up just started over.



Monthly Chart - Click to enlarge






Weekly Chart - Click to enlarge






Daily Chart - Click to enlarge






4-hour Chart - Click to enlarge






1-hour Chart - Click to enlarge








Monday, 12 June 2017

AUDUSD: What's Next

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.753) seems determined to rally to 0.76-0.77 but this time, given the Elliott Wave pattern, there is a real possibility to make it to the area 0.806-0.8165.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays a compression formation (a and b) which is usually followed by three large waves up from b.

The daily chart shows that, from b, Wave 1 and 2 (out of 3 waves) have been completed whilst the third wave - made out of 5 waves up - just started. 

Theoretically, it should reach the 0.81 level.




Monthly chart, click to enlarge





Weekly chart, click to enlarge





Daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hour chart, click to enlarge





1-hour chart, click to enlarge



Thursday, 8 June 2017

EURO: WHAT'S NEXT

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.1249) might be close to a top-reverse in the area  1.130-1.146. This could start a downtrend towards the parity (1 EUR = 1 USD).

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows a compression area (1-2-3-4 in red). If the wave count is correct, the Euro is bound to a sharp move to the area 1.10-1.00.

The weekly chart shows clearly the top-and-reverse area at 1.130-1.146. The daily and 4-hour charts confirm that the target is very close.




Monthly chart. Click to enlarge






Weekly chart. Click to enlarge






Daily chart. Click to enlarge






4-hour chart. Click to enlarge






1-hour chart. Click to enlarge






Tuesday, 6 June 2017

GOLD: WHAT'S NEXT

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1292.3) is very close to the target at $1.301-$1308 where it could  reverse to  $1259-$1249 or lower.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly, weekly and daily charts shows that Gold is unfolding a new pattern that look similar to a "retracement-wave-4", which is part of the downtrend started in 2011. 

This type of wave is supposed to bring the yellow metal down to the area $1195-$1206. Subsequently, Gold would rally to $1532 - or higher - in 5 waves.



Monthly Chart. Click to enlarge






Weekly Chart. Click to enlarge






Daily Chart. Click to enlarge










Monday, 5 June 2017

Canadian: What's Next

Hi Traders,

The USDCAD (now at 1.34884) seems to be heading to the support at 1.322. Possible long term target the area 1.283-1.267 and also around 1.213

ELLIOTT WAVES

The historical chart display the completion of the major a-b-c retracement in c 2, (53c2, top right in the monthly chart)

The monthly chart shows the same huge a-b-c from 0.905 to 1.469. Then, in the weekly chart, the new trend started with wave 1 and wave 2, the latter being the typical continuation pattern.

The daily chart shows the same continuation pattern in its entirety (a-b-c in blue) and the targets at the area 1.329-1.328 and around 1.322.

The 4-hour chart displays 4 waves down, out of 5 (in magenta). The 5th is on its way. Note also the support at 1.3454.


Historical chart. Click to enlarge









Monthly chart. Click to enlarge










Weekly chart. Click to enlarge










Daily chart. Click to enlarge










4-hour chart. Click to enlarge








Sunday, 4 June 2017

OIL: what's next

Hi Traders,

Although it's briefly retracing to $49, the WTI OIL (now at $47.71) seems to be  heading towards the area $40.6-$37.6.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart show that the WTI OIL completed 5 waves up and started a retracement down to the area $40.6-$37.

The daily chart shows a Fibonacci confluence (K) around $45.38-$45.67 where the WTI OIL could complete the first set of 5 small waves down (from point on the right hand side of the daily chart). Besides,  $43 and $38.85 seem to be important supports.

Finally, the 4-hour chart displays the target area at $47.06-$46.96 that I previously set sometimes ago (it went down to $46.72) and also the new possible target at $49.21.



Weekly chart. Click to enlarge






Daily chart. Click to enlarge






4-hour chart. Click to enlarge





Wednesday, 11 January 2017

The Yuan reversal

Hi Traders,

The USDCNH (now at 6.80) has topped at 6.9874 and it's now reversing to 6.65. The Yuan depreciated considerably (from 6.0153 to 6.9874) in the last 24 months 

MAJOR SUPPORTS & TARGETS

1) 6.6488
3) 6.5634
5) 6.5444

ELLIOTT WAVES

Given that the historical chart below doesn't allow any Elliott wave recognition, I'm forced to consider two quite opposite scenarios.

However, in both cases the USDCNH short term target is down to 6.56 Yuan per USD.

1) If the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is part of a 5 wave pattern, the USDCNH is now performing the retracement wave 4  down to 6.56, followed by a new uptrend to 9 USDCNH and over.

2) Instead, if the uptrend started on Dec 2014 is just a typical 3 waves retracement, the uptrend is over. In this case the USDCNH is just resuming the major downtrend - started in January 1994 at 8.72 - to move well below 6.56.

Below the historical chart as well as the weekly, daily and 4-hour charts





Historical chart - Click to enlarge




Weekly chart - Click to enlarge






Daily Chart - Click to enlarge






4-hour chart - Click to enlarge