Monday 10 September 2012

AUDUSD, Tuesday Sept 11, 2012

Hi Traders,
From time to time I like indulging in some time calculation. Look what i found.
To start, let me recall that:
  • In 1967 the AUD was pegged to USD at the rate of 1.12USD
  • On Sep 9, 1973  it was adjusted to 1.4885USD
  • On Dec 12, 1983 the AUD was floated
  • On Apr 2001 it reached the lowest low at 0.4775USD.
I have drawn vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart below, starting from the low on Apr 2001.

In terms of Elliott Waves, the AUD is now performing one of these 2 possible patterns (not clear yet):
  • a-b-c and then up
  • a-b-c-d-e and then up
- With the former, the wave up is already started (improperly named d and 1 in red)
- With the latter, the chart is moving down to complete wave "e". After completion, it would finally move up for the last 5-9 waves.

Assuming the second one as more likely to happen, there's a chance for the AUD to end its sideway move by completing "wave e" down in early Dec 2012 (see vertical line marked "141",  top-right of the monthly chart).
If this is correct, early Dec 2012 would be the starting point of the very last Elliott wave up (the 5th, of the 5th, of the 5th) which should end by April 8-9, 2013 (see vertical line marked 144, top-right of the monthly chart).
April 8-9,  2013 will mark the completion of a Fibonacci time cycle of 144 month, from the low at 0.4775 in April 2001.
Now, getting back to the vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart, starting from April 2001. There's a periodicity of 47 month between major low and tops and viceversa.
  • Apr 2001 (Low) - Mar 2005 (top), 47 month
  • Apr 2005 (Top) - Jan 2009 (low), 47 month
  • Feb 2009 (low ) - Dec 2012, 47 month (end of waves 1-2-3-4 and start of 5 ?). See vertical line marked 141 (month).
If this is true, minor wave 5 might last only 4 month, (Dec 2012- Apr 2013).


By using Fibonacci projections we have a DiNapoli Confluence (an aggregation of Fib-nodes) at 1.12USD - Waw! History repeats! - although we have another possible confluence at 1.32-133 USD.


The monthly chart below shows that we are now working to complete 5 waves sideways (ending in  Dec 2012).
This should be done with an a-b-c-d-e (labelled in red, on the far upper right).
Wave a-b-c-d are  completed but we are not done yet with wave "e" which is bearish by definition. 
This wave might target the lower (blue) line of the triangle and it will enfold in 5 waves down (as the Elliott rule).
Consequently, in the monthly chart below, the long term trend is down and we expect 5 waves down. We've already marked wave 1 (down) in red.
The weekly chart below shows that the pattern a-b-c-d-e is still missing wave "e". Note that the blue channel was touched 4 times: this might be an indication that there should be a breakout of the blue channel after completing wave "e". Note: wave "e" enfolds always in 5-waves-down by definition.
Consequently, in the weekly chart below the long term trend is down with a minimum target of 0.99044.
The daily chart below shows that wave "d" was made out of 7 waves. Theoretically, this confirms that we're are witnessing wave "e" down, starting with 1-2-3-5 (in magenta) and 1-2 (in red) at the far right.

Consequently, in the daily chart below the shot trend to wave X is up but then it should resume the  trend down to complete wave e on the weekly chart above.

The 4-hour chart below shows wave 1 (very right hand side) made only of 7 waves. Afetr a retracement down 1.03165 and then up again to 1.044 as a minimum.

Consequently, in the 4-hour chart below the trend is up to 1.044 to perform a 1-2-X. Then the downtrend should resume.

The 1-hour chart below show the 7 waves up that formed the retracements. It also shows that the Aussie completed 5 waves down. to 1.03221

 Consequently, in the 1-hour chart below the trend is up to 1.044 and then down to one of the possible targets; 1.016, 1.075, 1.035