Saturday 21 April 2012

SPI200, Saturday 21, 2012

Hi Traders,

I afraid that "that's it". The ASX has completed all possible waves up.

There's only one way: down.
This is confirmed by the analysis of the DJ30. See my post about it.

Entry point: at the opening.
Target: 4230 and 4010. There's a chance for 3800 and 3710 in the longer run. The latter confirmed by the Pinocchio candlestick in the weekly chart.


The monthly chart of the SPI200 below completed wave 4 by retracing 50% (in turquoise) of wave 3.

The weekly chart below shows the 4 major waves down in orange, all contained in the major channel in purple. Also, the chart touched the red channel 4 times and it's time for a breakout to the downside.

The daily chart below shows the 7 retracement waves up that completed the last leg up. They really were supposed to be 7 waves (according to the way to count waves) and they are equivalent to a 3 wave up (3-1-3).

At the top right of the chart you see 3 numbers: number 7 in white indicates the completion of 7 waves up; number 4 in orange shows that we completed the 4th wave down of a major downtrend started in November 2011; number 5 shows that the major wave 4 unfolded with 5 waves up.

Note the reversal spinning top at the end of wave 7.



The 4hour chart below shows that the last 5 wave up (wave 7) ended up with a double top and an reversal evening star. Also, the top resistance line in red confirms that the SPI200 didn't have enough momentum to move above 4393.

The 1hour chart below shows the very last 5 waves up, the double top and the reversal gravestone doji.

Thursday 19 April 2012

WTI, Saturday, April 21, 2012

Hi Traders,

I updated my post on Oil.
You still have he best entry point and set up on oil (WTI).
Please take a good look of the 4 hour chart.

Now: $104.04. It's now retracing slightly to $103.96 and could go even to $103.76.
Entry point: $103.76 or $103.96-104.00 if it doesn't retrace much.
Position: long.

Immediate target: 105.39.
Final target: up to $112.70-$114.70, then down to $95.00 and lower.

Note: there seems to be a strong resistance at $104.57.
Warning: if the Elliott wave count stops there or some other resistance ($108.18 and $109.72) it might not make it and it will reverse sharply.


Check the weekly chart below. The West Texas Intermediate is performing the very last wave up (wave 9). It's the very last leg up of major wave 5.

The chart touched the channel 5 times already. Consequently, after the last rally, it will breakout to the downside.

The Stochastic shows a divergence already for the long run, meaning that we're doing the last leg up and the down.

The daily chart below confirms the Elliott Wave count to 9. For some of you the count to 9 might sound wierd but it's equivalent to a count to 5.

The 4hour chart below shows that we started the uptrend already with 4 waves up. They are the first manifestation of wave 9 (weekly chart) that should unfold in about 13 - 21 waves

Finally, the 30min chart describes the A-B-C which formed the wave 4. Plus, see the candlestick reversal (hammer).

Wednesday 18 April 2012

GBPJPY, Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Hi Traders,

The Yen seems to have issues against almost every currency, included the British Pound.
New trend up. Objectives: 134.800, 140.240, 145.480, 148.200.
Entry point: wait for the retracement to 38.2% or 50% in the 1hour chart.
Than entry only when you see a new bullish reversal candlestick.


In the monthly chart below it's clear that we completed the very last 5 waves down plus a double bottom (near number 5).

This means that the major downtrend is over and it just reversed with a new rally up.

Note the vertical lines: it took precisely 11 years (132month) from low to low. We're likely to see something significant at the completion of the 144 month from September 2001 (12 years). 

The weekly chart below shows an imminent breakout on the upside given the 5 contact points of the blue channel. The number 5 (bottom right in orange) signals the end of the major trend down and the beginning of a new major rally.

Wave 2 unfolded in the daily chart below by means of 5 waves down, just on the 38.2% retracement line. It's now on the 23.6% line. The channel was touched 4 times and we expect a breakout on the upside.

The 4hour chart below shows the completion of the retracement wave 2 (in turquoise), given the Elliott Wave count over the minor waves. See also the 5 waves up. 

Finally the 1hour chart below shows that the chart could try a small leap up before starting the retracement down that should stop around level 128.700 (38.2%) or 128.400 (50%).

Tuesday 17 April 2012

USDJPY, Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Hi Traders,

Nice setup for a long position on USDJPY. It could be the rare chance to get a very long trend from the beginning.

If your target is the long term and you are not in already, wait for the completion of 5 waves up and a retracement down before getting in.

You might not know how to handle the Elliott Wave count. If you don't feel confident enough just ring me up on Skype: "mariodconti"

Targets: 85.540 and 88.130 but the closest targets should be 80.730, 81.200, 81.850. The final target could be up to 98.500, 101.350 with a chance of 103.460 and 105.470.


I've already analysed this currency few weeks ago and I didn't change a thing.
Basically, we completed a cycle of 120 month at the beginning of February: a major top in Feb 2002 followed by a major low on Feb 2012).
We are now bouncing back after completing a 5-X-5-X-5 (or 5-3-5-3-5). In the monthly chart below I marked 9 waves down = 5-3-5

As you see in weekly chart below we started impulse wave 1-2-3 and 4 and we're now  started wave 5 that will be followed by and a series of retracement waves

The daily chart below shows that the retracement of wave 4 (in turquoise) stopped exacly on the 50%  line (in blue)

The 4hour chart below rings some bells as the chart touched the channel 4 times (yellow triangles). At this point in time we should have a breakout, hopefully on the upside.  The Elliott count after wave 5 (in turquoise) is a 3-X-3-X-5.

In the 30min chart below we had 9 waves down and a sort of triple bottom. The chart also performed a breakout of both channels.

Monday 16 April 2012

EURJPY, Monday 16 April, 2012

Hi Traders,

There's an interesting Set Up in the cross Euro / Yen. As soon as the small retracement  is complete - down to 104.25 or even 102.54 -  you  may want to enter your long position. But careful: if the chart doesn't break the resistance at 111.50 it might reverse down again.

Targets: 111.50 and 118.00


The monthly chart below shows 3 channels: the major channel is in red and it's almost horizontal. Note the blue triangles:  the chart  touched the channel 5 times in the past and it's now ready for a major breakout.

We also have another channel in orange. The yellow triangles show that the channel was touched 4 times and then we had a breakout (wave 4 in red).

Finally, the third channel in Magenta shows only 3 contact points. Consequently, we need one more contact with  the boundary of the magenta channel before going through it.

The weekly chart below show that the euro completed a typical retracement wave down named  5-X-5-X-5 (also named 5-3-5-3-5). This wave started from the "mid way pivot point" of the rounding top. The chart touched the blue channel 4 times before performing a very little breakout on the downside.

Gann used to call this kind of breakout a "throw over". This usually happens when the trend reverses. Note the reversal "morning star" at the bottom and also note that we reached the 300% target of the rounding top.

Check also the magenta channel with 4 contact points. It's ready for a breakout

The daily chart below shows that the Euro just completed 5 major waves down and started 5 waves up followed by some retracement waves down. It  performed a double bottom and a "morning doji star" between wave 4 and 5 

We also just started a new uptrend (wave 1 and 2 in turquoise) after the small breakout of the blue channel (on the downside) and 4 contact points (see the yellow triangles for the contact points).

In this chart, the retracement wave 2 will be completed at level 104.25 yen per euro but it can go down to 102.54. Then up to start wave 3.

The 4 hour chart below  shows wave 2 unfolding nicely in a channel after a triple top. In this case too, it touches the orange channel 4 times (see triangles). At the completion of the last wave down there should be a breakout. hopefully, on the upside

The 1 hour chart below shows the 9 or more waves down in formation. Just wait for them to complete and aldo wait also for the appropriate reversal candlestick  before taking your position.