Gold has been trending down since September 2011. Is there a chance of hitting an absolute minimum in the upcoming months? Are we on the verge of new major uptrend?
If you want to take advantage of The Next Trend of GOLD come to my presentation on Tuesday August 19 in Melbourne for $10 only.
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GOLD - ANALYSIS
As I said in my previous newsletters, after the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) on May 19, the message from the 21 European Central Banks is very clear: European gold sales are almost over.
I also said that this is supposed to happen only well after September 27, 2014 when the fourth CBGA is going to be enforced. Note that the FED quantitative easing is supposed to end in October 2014 as well. This is likely to bring weakness to both Stocks & Commodities and strengthen the USD for a short time.
Gold (now at $1,304) might display the last brave "throw over" to $1348-52 to complete the a-b-c-d-e triangle configuration (see weekly chart) but this would soon be followed by the last leg down to the area 1164-54 (or lower) in 5 smaller waves to establish a primary low.
There's an equal probability for this low to be established a bit further down to $1089 or even to the area at $1043-$1032. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to a forecast of $1050 as a primary low.
This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable.
If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow up.
Note the weekly chart: Gold must touch the upper boundary of the triangle before resuming the last wave down. See the 4-hour chart: after wave 2 down (in blue) there should be another wave up (only) to $1348-52.
first up to 1348-52
then down to
likely: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)
Weekly chart - click to enlarge
Daily chart - click to enlarge
Four-hour chart - click to enlarge