Thursday 1 November 2012

FT100, Thursday Nov 1, 2012

Hi Traders,

If my wave count is right the FT100 has lost the last chance to over around the 5,700 area and it's heading south.

The monthly chart below (sorry, i don't have much history) shows the completion of 5 waves up and the 1-2-3-4 in red. Note the log shadows in the last 3 candles, clearly a sign of weakness.


Check the weekly chart below. The FT100 reached the top level 4-5 times but shows great weakness . Check the red Displaced MA (DiNapoli). It shows a Double Repo, meaning that it's quite bearish.


The daily chart below shows the completion of 5 waves up, wave 1 and 2 in red and a breakout. Time to take your short position. It also shows a double top made of wave 5 and wave 2.


In the 4-hour chart below there's a reversal candlestick (4) within a down channel that has been touched 5 times


The 1-hour chart below shows wave 1 and 2 out of 5. Good entry point.

Tuesday 30 October 2012

S&P500, Tuesday OCT 30, 2012

Hi Traders,

I've been asked whether I'm still bullish on S&P500. I do, and I'm still in, although I've been stopped out twice in a row and I'm dangerously close to my stop loss.

It's not stubbornness. I just reviewed my analysis and it doesn't seem to be wrong.

I suggest to go straight to the 1-hour chart to see the double bottom. More urgently, check the 15 min chart to see the Candlestick reversal and the perfect entry point.


Basically nothing has changed as you can see in the weely chart below. Clearly, we now need the last jump up, meaning the last wave 5 up.

Possible targets: 1530, 1628, 1740, 1755 and 1855, the most likely target area being 1740-1755.
Also, what's going to be the effect of the incoming election on S&P500

In the daily chart below the S&P500 touches the magenta channel for the 4th time. Although I don't see a candlestick reversal I see a lot of doji candles, meaning that
  • there's not market (hurricane Sandy)
  • there's no apparent intention to go down 
BUT ...

The Elliott wave's count in the 4-hour chart below shows the completion of 5 waves down, a nice double bottom and a candlestick reversal (bottom right).

In the 1-hour chart below we have a triple bottom, the completion of 5 waves down and a Stochastic positive divergence.

In the 15-min chart below we have a triple bottom, the completion of 5 waves down, a nice reversal candlestick and the new waves 1 and 2, the latter being the perfect entry point.