Saturday 21 October 2017

The YEN: what's next

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ANALYSIS


The present rally of the USDJPY (now at 113.50) started on Sept 8th, 2017 and  should temporarily top around 115.6-116.0. The subsequent retracement could bring it back to 112-111 before resuming the uptrend.


ELLIOTT WAVES

The red trend line on the historical chart and the magenta trend line on the monthly chart represent the 69 y/o historical trend line drawn from level 320¥ through the tops at 280¥, 265¥ and 126-125¥.

That trend line is about to be crossed (breakout) around the 116-119 level by the present uptrend.

The monthly chart shows a huge retracement  a-b-c on the making where wave-a and wave-b are fully deployed already. Conversely, Wave-c is actually unfolding right now and should top around 150-165. Others think it will top at 230.

The weekly chart reveals that the present uptrend - started in June 2016 - has already completed 4 waves up.  Wave-5 should reach level 127 as a minimum.

The daily chart shows wave-4 and the unfolding of wave-5. The 4-hours chart reveals that we are approaching the top of wave-3 (in blue, font 12) around 115.6-116.0.




Historical chart, click to enlarge






Monthly chart, click to enlarge





Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hours chart, click to enlarge





Thursday 19 October 2017

EURO: what's next

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ANALYSIS

Although the Euro (now at 1.181) is retracing down to 1.1773-1.1762 in the very short term (1-hour chart), it should be able to resume its limited uptrend to 1.1932 in five  waves (4-hours chart). At that level, the dominant downtrend (daily chartwill resume its course to 1.1459.

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that the EURUSD is presently unfolding a wide wave-four upwards, which is usually a very articulated a-b-c. Given that wave-a is complete, we now need to focus on the trajectory of wave-b.

Wave-b should drop the Euro to 1.1220. This should be followed by the wave-c rally to 1.24, although the final theoretical target is actually 1.3016. The blue horizontal lines mark the possible targets/supports/resistances.

The weekly chart shows that wave-b has already started its way down from the top at a. See the targets at 1.1459 and 1.1220. The blue line at 1.0889 is actually a Fibo Cluster and a very possible target too.

The daily chart displays the possible tops at 1.1930-32 which will be followed by the lows at 1.1327-1.1299 and 1.1220.

The 4-hours and the 1-hour charts reveal the short term lows at 1.1773-1.1762, followed by the top 1.1932-34.





Monthly chart, click to enlarge





Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge





4-hours chart, click to enlarge






1-hour chart, click to enlarge




















Monday 16 October 2017

ASX: is this the final top?

Hi Traders,

The futures of the ASX 200, the SPI 200 (now at 5828) might have staged the last rally. If this is the much expected top (note the exhaustion gap in 4-hours chart ), it
 should be soon followed by a sharp correction to the major support at 5320-28.


ELLIOTT WAVES 


The daily and 4-hour charts show a huge round formation started on May 1st, 2017. This kind of pattern is usually time-symmetrical. 
Check the magenta lines and the vertical lines on the daily chart

Placing the centre of the round formation at the lowest low at 5592, we have 60 days from the centre to the highest top on the left, and 60 days from the centre to the highest top on the right.


After the same number of days have passed, a new trend usually starts.


On a much bigger scale, the monthly chart reveals that the SPI 200 performed a huge a-b-c retracement from the low in March 2000.


The weekly chart also shows an a-b-c retracement up.


Moreover, it reveals that the present downtrend actually started around mid-March, 2015 at 6010 and made the lowest low at 4643 on Feb 2016 (wave-1). 

This, in turn, was followed by an a-b-c retracement rally to 5944 on April 30, 2017 (wave-2).

The latter was the very last top of the SPI 200 and it marked the completion of retracement wave-2
Note that the gap between 6020 and 6102 has never been filled so far.  




Monthly chart, click to enlarge






Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge







4-hour chart, click to enlarge