Thursday 25 October 2012

S&P500, Thursday Oct 25, 2012

Hi Traders,
On Sunday I said ... unless some extended Elliott Wave shows up, it's time to short the S&P500 ... Well, the extended wave actually showed up. If this is true, it's now the time to reverse to bullish.
The Elliott Wave count is now slightly different as you can see in the weely chart below. The last two waves (top right of the chart) have been renamed 3 and 4. Clearly, we now need the last jump up, meaning the last wave 5 up.
Possible targets:  1530, 1628, 1740, 1755 and 1855, the most likely target area being 1740-1755.


The daily chart below shows that the last wave 4 unfolded in a Zig-Zag made of 5 waves. It also shows that the absolute top was nothing more then the top of the extended wave 3.

The 4-hour chart below shows the 5 waves down forming the big pattern of the above mentioned  wave 4. Note the double bottom formation (bottom right). Note also the channel being touched 4 times. All of these being evidence of a reversal.

The channel in the 1-hour chart below show 4 contact points followed, as usual, by a bullish breakout.

The 15min chart below that shows the breakout is, at present, made out of 3 waves up (out of 5)


Wednesday 24 October 2012

OIL WTI, Wednesday Oct 24, 2012

Hi Traders,

Timing seems to be a serious matter for WTI Oil.

Since the Dec 2008 low around $36, the WTI futures started a new uptrend with 3 major waves up to $115 in Apr 2011.

It took 120 weeks precisely from low to top. See monthy chart below.

Then it moved sideways for 60 weeks precisely from top to low. Remarkable!

Now, all this moving sideways usually indicates a major wave 4 in formation, which should perform an  a-b-c-d-e, meaning a zig-zag with 5 legs.

If this is true we just started the last 5 waves down that constitute the wave "e" (see "5d" on the far right).

Tartget: $84.75 - as a minimum - and another likely target in the area $80.10-$78.50.

Furhermore: some say that it must go back to $70 (the lower blue line) before starting the last uptrend. This is actually a real chance but I don't have enough elements to confirm it. It's just an eventuality that I don't discard.


Note the daily chart below. After major wave 2 (in red, touching the red  horizontal line) a new downtrend started over. We should see of 5  waves down, where 1 and 2 - in red - are already in place. 

Very important: we're hovering over $87 right now, which is a very major support.

It should bounce back on the support and then go through. Use this retracement as an entry point. Check your own 1hour-15min chart for the best entry.


The 4-hour chart below shows a strong resistance at $93.62 (red horizontal line) and 4 waves down. The top of wave 4 is a good entry for a short.


Also, the 1-hour chart below indicated that wave 4 up (bottom right) is not complete yet. As the blue horizontal line is a confluence (K) of  Fib-nodes, it might be your entry point and also the top of wave 4.

Sunday 21 October 2012

SPI200, Sunday OCT 21, 2012

Hi Traders,
The SPI200 seems to have reached the very top with a much expected two-step-pattern. I don't see any other way but downward.
If the Elliott Wave count is right - see the monthly chart below - we just started 5 waves down with a minimum target at 3700. Volatility could be quite high at this stage and so the amplitude of this wave down.
Hence, shortening the SPI200 now might result in a very profitable trade.  
As you see in the weekly  chart below we've reached the top target expected between 4,564 and 4,583 in 5 waves up.
The fact that we've reached the top of the wave up is confirmed by the candlestick reversal (top right) in the daily chart below.
The 4-hour chart below shows a three-soldiers pattern which is usually a prelude to a retracement. If a little retracement occurs, that would be the perfect entry point.

S&P500, Sunday OCT 21, 2012

Hi Traders,

Unless some extended Elliott Wave shows up, it's time to short the S&P500, and for the long run. Expect a lot of volativity. Hence, be careful about the entry point as there could be a little retracement up on Monday (see 4-hour chart).


The S&P500 in the weekly chart below has completed 5 waves up from the minimum in March 2009. If the wave count is right we're aiming for 1090-1012 as a minimum


The daily chart below shows that the last wave up was an extended wave (see 555 - top right) followed by a 1-2-3-4 sideways in red. From now on the downtrend could be faster. 

The 4-hour chart below shows a candlestick reversal at 555 (top left) and another cadlestick reversal at 32 (top centre in blue and red). After the big slump (on the right) there could be a retracement. Then the downtrebd should resume.