Thursday 23 May 2013

OIL "debacle"

Hi Traders,

The Oil, now at 93.50, got a big hit this week and is set to decline further.


likely: area 93.62-93.26,  92.21-91.82 and 89.97-89.77
possible: area 87.51-87.06
maybe: 83.80


In the weekly chart below the OIL performed an a-b-c-d and is now enfolding the last leg downwards (wave e).

If it this impulse downwards goes through the supports at $89 and $87 it has the potential to squeeze the commodity down to $80 and even below.
However, if it doesn't move below those supports, there's the chance of a reversal and even a breakout to the upside.

Note: the 2 grey channels:

  • the large one has touched the boundaries 4 times meaning that there should be a breakout
  • the inner one has touched 4 times as well. Once again, this means that there should be a breakout
As I said, it's not clear whether the breakout will be on the upside or the downside but I wouldn't worry for now.

weekly chart - click to enlarge

The daily chart below is a bit more precise with the targets, meaning that the first impulse downwards (out of 3) should end in the area 93.62-93.26. More possible supports in the areas 92.23-91.82 and 90.35-89.98

daily chart - click to enlarge

Even more interesting the 4-hour chart below with a substantial double top and some targets in the area 92.21-91.82 and 89.97-89.77

4-hour chart - click to enlarge


If, in the 1-hour chart below, there's a little pullback from the area 93.50-93.35 to form a top in area 94.36-94.58, this would form "minor retracement wave 4" which would unfold most likely in 3 waves.

This  could be a further chances to get a good entry point for your short.

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Monday 20 May 2013

GBPUSD bouncing back

Hi Traders,

GBPUSD now at 1.5215.

After the top at 1.5605 - check the top at "2" in the daily chart below -  the Pound  resumed the main downtrend to point 1 (in black). It's now performing a temporary pullback.

DAILY CHART - click the chart to enlarge


After bottoming at 1.5157 the Pound should bounce back to 1.5298, possibly the area 1.5323-1.5328 and theoretically to the area 1.5360-1.5390.

This should be staged with a two-step-pattern upward, meaning 3 waves only. Then the major downtrend would resume.


(up) likely: 1.5298
(up) possibly the area 1.5323-1.5328
(up) theoretically the area 1.5360-1.5390

(down) likely: area 1.5073-1.5159
(down): likely: 1.4984


(down) likely: 1.4777
(down) possible: 1.4552
(down) maybe: 1.4345


Long Position: not worth it but if you want to get in, wait for area 1.5187

Short Position. Entry only:
  • after reaching the target above mentioned
  • the last wave of the two-step-pattern must be performed in 5 waves up
  • wait for reversal candlestick at the top
  • wait for a confirmation from the "wave oscillator" on your 4-hour chart (see below) before entering your short position.
For info on how to use the "wave oscillator" please check

4-HOUR CHART - click the chart to enlarge

 4-HOUR CHART with the wave oscillator - click the chart to enlarge

 1-HOUR CHART - click the chart to enlarge

 1-HOUR CHART with the wave oscillator - click the chart to enlarge