Wednesday 11 September 2013

Overall Picture

Hi Traders

Below a comparison of 3 indices, 2 commodities and 3 currencies. Apologies for the amendments to yesterday's analysis but I needed to be more precise.


The FT100 (below) is sometimes the index that "displays earlier" than the SPI200. The weekly chart shows a pattern of 4 waves out of 5.

this is not a simple wave 4 but the start of a wider retracement,
the incoming top should end below the resistance at 6862 and then drop well below 6000 in 3-5 waves (a-b-c- or a-b-c-d-e).

Conversely, if it breaks the resistance at 6862 it should reach level 7,000.

FT100 weekly

FT100 daily

The S&P500 (below) hasn't made any absolute top yet. It actually performed only 3 waves out of 5 (weekly chart).

It is now unfolding the "retracement wave  4" (an a-b-c-d-e) that should go through the lower line of the channel (in both weekly & daily charts).

If this analysis is correct, the last wave of this a-b-c-d-e (wave e) might cut deeply through the lower line of the channel.

S&P500 weekly

S&P500 daily

The SPI200 (below), now touching a main resistance, started retracement wave 4 where wave "b" is almost completed.

After this top ("b"), wave 4 will form an a-b-c heading to 4900, 4700 and maybe 4560-4550.

SPI200 weekly

SPI200 daily


The WTI OIL displays an uptrend of 3 waves up (out of 5) and it's now sitting  on the resistance at 110.31.

If this is the top of wave 3 there will be an a-b-c correction or even an a-b-c-d-e to the areas 100.86-100.41 and 98.29-97.35.  

WTI OIL weekly

WTI OIL daily

Gold displays 5 waves downwards followed by a rally (wave 1). If this is true, it should retrace to 1306 to complete wave 2. This should be followed by a rally to 1447-1462 as a minimum.

Gold weekly

Gold daily


The USDJPY is really interesting: after the breakout upwards and the subsequent retracement (not finished), it seems to be ready for level 105.3 and higher.

USDJPY weekly

USDJPY daily

The USDSGD (below) made a double top and it's now heading to 1.25. Then the situation will need to be re-assessed as the uptrend should resume.

USDSGD weekly

USDSGD daily

The AUDUSD (below) is in full upswing. It's now heading to 0.9511-0.9529 and possibly 0.9691-0.9716.

AUDUSD weekly

AUDUSD daily