Thursday 22 January 2015

Gold New Top

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1289) should top around the area 1318.12-1320.71 (see daily chart) and start a new downtrend soon.

If this is just a retracement, the new downtrend should lead to the area 1240.41-1238.18 or even the area 1223.05-1221.45.

Conversely, if GOLD resumed the original downtrend, the yellow metal should finally bottom down at 1089 or a bit lower.


first up to (see weekly chart)

likely: area 1311.81-1313.67 
possibly: area 1318.12-1320.71
maybe: area 1333.23-1337.49

Then down to

1) If this is just a retracement:

support 1: 1257.81 -1254.96
support 2: 1240.41-1238.18
support 3: 1223.05-1221.45
support 4: 1203.31- 1201.47

2) If Gold resumed the original downtrend:

likely: 1089.05
possibly: 1043-1032


The daily chart shows that we are approaching the top of "wave e" which is also the top of "major wave 4". A short  wave 5 downwards should unfold soon.

Note the 9 waves in the 4-hour chart and 1-hour chart


Some say that Silver bottomed down on Dec 1st and started a new major uptrend already. Hence, the above analysis would generate an inconsistency given the tight Gold-Silver correlation.

Definitively possible, but for the time being, I stick to my Elliott wave count which seem to be leading to a new major low soon.


Some may find the wave labelling in the 4-hour chart and in the 1-hour chart "a bit too bold". Understandable, but it would make no difference. Other interpretations would probably lead to the same result: the start of a downtrend.

weekly chart - click to enlarge

daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge