Hi Traders,
Although the WTI OIL (now at 70.34) can still edge up a bit, it might not make it higher than 72.60 and the long awaited major downturn could set in soon. Targets: the area 68-67 followed by the supports at 64-63 and 61-60.
ELLIOTT WAVES
Most importantly, the daily chart clearly shows that the whole set of Elliott waves and sub-waves is religiously in place, confirming the assumption of the completion of major wave 4. See also the possible target at 72.26-72.60.
Unfortunately I don't possess the knowledge and the technology to indulge in such a time consuming study. However, I sometimes use "Time Turning Points" as further confirmation of the Elliott waves events, like the contemporary completion of major wave 4 in conjunction with a TTP.
CONCLUSION
Given that major wave 4 seems to be complete, the uptrend that started on Jan 20, 2016 appears to be over and the WTI OIL might soon head South.
Although the WTI OIL (now at 70.34) can still edge up a bit, it might not make it higher than 72.60 and the long awaited major downturn could set in soon. Targets: the area 68-67 followed by the supports at 64-63 and 61-60.
ELLIOTT WAVES
The weekly chart reveals that the inclination of wave 2 is perfectly identical to the inclination of wave 4 (see the gray lines) and this might be a indication that wave 4 just topped.
Previously, wave 2 topped and reversed after touching the inclination line. Similarly, wave 4 touched the inclination line at 75.34. This could be a top as well.
In addition, the top of wave 4 coincides with a major resistance (see the weekly chart)
Previously, wave 2 topped and reversed after touching the inclination line. Similarly, wave 4 touched the inclination line at 75.34. This could be a top as well.
In addition, the top of wave 4 coincides with a major resistance (see the weekly chart)
Most importantly, the daily chart clearly shows that the whole set of Elliott waves and sub-waves is religiously in place, confirming the assumption of the completion of major wave 4. See also the possible target at 72.26-72.60.
IDENTICAL INCLINATION
Identical inclination means that WTI OIL gained the same average dollars each week in both wave 2 and wave 4. Let's see how:
- Wave 2 lasted 99 weeks, from a low at 74.94 to a top at 112.20. Gain: 37.26
Average weekly gain: $0.37
- wave 4 lasted 128 weeks, from a low at 27.69 to a top at 75.34. Gain: 47.65
Average weekly gain: $0.37
NOTE: W.D. Gann - and very few others later - developed studies about the interaction between a price unit ($0.37) and a time unit (1 week) in order to pinpoint time turning points. Identical inclination means that WTI OIL gained the same average dollars each week in both wave 2 and wave 4. Let's see how:
- Wave 2 lasted 99 weeks, from a low at 74.94 to a top at 112.20. Gain: 37.26
Average weekly gain: $0.37
- wave 4 lasted 128 weeks, from a low at 27.69 to a top at 75.34. Gain: 47.65
Average weekly gain: $0.37
Unfortunately I don't possess the knowledge and the technology to indulge in such a time consuming study. However, I sometimes use "Time Turning Points" as further confirmation of the Elliott waves events, like the contemporary completion of major wave 4 in conjunction with a TTP.
CONCLUSION
Given that major wave 4 seems to be complete, the uptrend that started on Jan 20, 2016 appears to be over and the WTI OIL might soon head South.
weekly chart - click to enlarge
daily chart - click to enlarge
4-hours chart - click to enlarge
