Wednesday, 25 February 2015

WTI OIL: time to buy back

Hi Traders,

Time to long the WTI OIL (now at $49.27) as it's supposed to rally to the area $60-62. The present price seems to be a good entry point.



TARGETS

likely: area 58.25-59.49
possibly: area 61.69-62.63
maybe: 63.67

The blue lines in each chart represent possible targets



ELLIOTT WAVES

The OIL completed wave 3 in the weekly chart and started "retracement wave 4".

Waves 1 & 2 in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are just the beginning of the bigger "retracement wave 4" of the weekly chart.




weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge







AUDUSD back to 0.80-82?

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar (now at 0.7860) is set to bounce back to 0.8036-0.8067 and higher.


TARGETS

likely: 0.8036-0.8067
possibly: 0.8168 - 0.8156
maybe: 0.8229-0.8260 

The new targets are marked with blue horizontal lines in  the monthlyweekly and daily charts.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Note the 4-hour and the 1-hour charts that show the Elliott wave count that shows the unfolding of a typical wave 4 of the daily chart.




monthly chart, click to enlarge






weekly chart, click to enlarge






daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hour chart, click to enlarge






1-hour chart, click to enlarge






Tuesday, 10 February 2015

AUDUSD, almost there

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar (now at 0.7820) might drop to the area 0.7536-0.7505 before bouncing back to 0.8036-0.8067 and higher.


TARGETS

first down to the area 0.7536-0.7505 

then up to:

likely: 0.8036-0.8067
possibly: 0.8168 - 0.8156
maybe: 0.8229-0.8260 

The new targets are marked with blue horizontal line in the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Note the 4-hour and the 1-hour charts that show the start of sub-minuette wave 5 unfolding down to the area 0.7536-0.7505.





monthly chart, click to enlarge






weekly chart, click to enlarge






daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hour chart, click to enlarge






1-hour chart, click to enlarge






Friday, 6 February 2015

Euro downtrend to resume

Hi Traders,

The Euro bottomed at 1.10966 and missed my target for a whisker (1.1091-1.1062). Then it rebounded to 1.15332.

It should now resume the downtrend to finally touch down in the area 1.0917-1.0759. Afterwards, we should see some good rally unless bad news come from Greece and Ukraine.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.0917-1.0759
possibly: area 1.0344-1.0419
maybe: 1.0104-1.0206


ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart below displays all the targets. Wave "e" is not fully displayed because the 1-hour chart is still waiting for one more wave down to the area 1.0917-1.0759.

NOTE: if any bad news comes to the stage we may see the Euro starting an extension that could take it easily below the parity.




monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Monday, 2 February 2015

SPI 200 TOPPING AROUND 5600?

Hi Traders,

In my view the SPI 200 (now at 5572) is performing the fourth leg of a "Flat" pattern (daily chart) that could top just above 5600. If this is true, the subsequent leg of the flat - wave e - should take the form of a new downtrend to 5000-5100.

TARGETS

first up to
likely: 5583-5594
possibly: 5609

Then down to
likely: 5166-5147
possibly: 5108-5089

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays 3 major ways up (in blue, font 11), as it should be. Major wave 3 is almost completed. The daily chart shows the flat a-b-c-d which should be followed by a downtrend to 5166-5147 to form "wave e" as well as "wave 4" down (e4).

NOTE

The new wave "e4" can potentially move down to the area 4993-5019 (weekly chart).




monthly chart - click to enlarge






weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Meetup Reminder

Hi Traders,

We have a trading meetup in Sydney on Wednesday 04 Feb, 10.45 am. Please  check on 

http://www.meetup.com/SydneyTrading/

http://www.meetup.com/SydneyTraders/

Mario D. Conti

Thursday, 29 January 2015

USDJPY to top soon?

Hi Traders,

The long running uptrend of USDJPY (now at 117.91) - that started on OCT 31 2011 - could finally come to an end by topping in the area 124-126.

This should be followed by a retracement to the area around 111-109.


TARGETS

first up to:

likely: area 123.734-124.088
possibly: area 124.797-125.683
maybe: 125.759-126.330

then down to:

likely: 115.759-114.962
possibly: 111.683-111.329
maybe: 108.898


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts show that wave 9 is approaching the target. In the daily and 4-hour charts this would be wave 13.

In the 4-hour and 1-hour charts note wave 1 and 2 which mark the beginning and the end of the triangle. They will be followed by 3 wave up to the target.




monthly chart - click to enlarge








weekly chart - click to enlarge








daily chart - click to enlarge








4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge







Tuesday, 27 January 2015

AUDUSD to stop at 0.78?

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD needs another little dive just below the 0.78 area before finding some temporary strength to start a trading range between 0.78 and 0.837

TARGETS

first down to

likely: 0.7800
possibly: 0.7693-0.7676

then trading range between 0.78 and 0.837

ELLIOTT WAVES

Weekly and daily charts indicate that the Aussies dollar has almost completed wave 3 (out of 5). This "wave 3" of a major degree is made out of 5 little waves of a minor degree (see 4-hour and 1-hour charts). We still need "minor wave 5" to complete "major wave 3" down.

Then the AUDUSD should be able to bounce back and start the trading range above mentioned. This trading range could eventuate as an "a-b-c-d-e triangle".




monthly chart - click to enlarge








weekly chart - click to enlarge









daily chart - click to enlarge









4-hour chart - click to enlarge









1-hour chart - click to enlarge









   

Thursday, 22 January 2015

Gold New Top

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1289) should top around the area 1318.12-1320.71 (see daily chart) and start a new downtrend soon.

If this is just a retracement, the new downtrend should lead to the area 1240.41-1238.18 or even the area 1223.05-1221.45.

Conversely, if GOLD resumed the original downtrend, the yellow metal should finally bottom down at 1089 or a bit lower.

TARGETS

first up to (see weekly chart)

likely: area 1311.81-1313.67 
possibly: area 1318.12-1320.71
maybe: area 1333.23-1337.49

Then down to

1) If this is just a retracement:

support 1: 1257.81 -1254.96
support 2: 1240.41-1238.18
support 3: 1223.05-1221.45
support 4: 1203.31- 1201.47

2) If Gold resumed the original downtrend:

likely: 1089.05
possibly: 1043-1032

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows that we are approaching the top of "wave e" which is also the top of "major wave 4". A short  wave 5 downwards should unfold soon.

Note the 9 waves in the 4-hour chart and 1-hour chart

NOTE:

Some say that Silver bottomed down on Dec 1st and started a new major uptrend already. Hence, the above analysis would generate an inconsistency given the tight Gold-Silver correlation.

Definitively possible, but for the time being, I stick to my Elliott wave count which seem to be leading to a new major low soon.

FURTHERMORE

Some may find the wave labelling in the 4-hour chart and in the 1-hour chart "a bit too bold". Understandable, but it would make no difference. Other interpretations would probably lead to the same result: the start of a downtrend.




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge










Friday, 16 January 2015

WTI OIL, the last dive, for now

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL is set to perform the last dive to the area $42-$40 followed by a long trading range between the new low and $61-63.

TARGETS

likely: 42.04-43.14
possibly: 40.94-40.39

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and daily charts show that we are bottoming down by completing wave 3 (of 5) down to the above targets. The 4-hour and 1-hour charts show that it's a matter of hours for this to occur.

The new low at $42-$40 should be followed by the retracement wave 4 (weekly and daily charts), made out of 5 waves. It might unfold with a triangle or a similar formation, with the first leg reaching up the area at $61-$63.




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge