Sunday, 29 March 2015

Easter Holidays and Apologies

Hi Traders,

Apologies for not publishing new analysis lately but I'll be utterly busy approximately till April 12.

However, feel free to call me for a quick chat through Skype at "mariodconti".
Just bear in mind that I'm usually in my office 4pm-11.30pm, Sydney Time (Australia).

In meantime, Happy Easter Holidays.

Mario D Conti

Wednesday, 18 March 2015

GOLD, Major Low and Reverse

Hi Traders, 

 GOLD (now at 1146) is almost ready to bottom down and reverse, probably around 1089 or the area 1043-1.032.

Once this occurs, a Major Turning Point and a subsequent rally should follow soon. Not to be missed.  Have a look at the blue lines in the monthly chart for the targets

 
TARGETS
first down to 

likely: 1089
possibly: 1043 - 1032

Then up:

likely: 1307-1320
possibly: 1380-1386

 
 
ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are reaching the bottom of a major wave.  The 4-hour and 1-hour charts show that this could happens within a week.






weekly chart - click to enlarge


 




 
daily chart - click to enlarge
 






4-hour chart - click to enlarge







1-hour chart - click to enlarge






 

Monday, 16 March 2015

GBPUSD Major Turning Point

Hi Traders, 

The GBPUSD (now at 1.4774) seems to be almost ready to bottom down around 1.46-1.45 and reverse. Once this occurs, a Major Turning Point and a subsequent rally will follow soon. Not to be missed.

Have a look at the blue lines in the monthly chart for the targets

TARGETS
first down to 

likely: 1.4665
possibly: 1.4602 - 1.4556
maybe: 1.4583-1.4538

Then up:

likely: 1.5174-1.5156
possibly: 0.5320-1.5466

 
 
ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are reaching the bottom of a major wave. At this stage, it is not clear which Elliott pattern this wave belongs to. What it's clear is that we are close to a turning point and there will be a retracement as a minimum.

The daily chart shows that we are performing wave 5 and the 4-hour and 1-hour charts shows that this could happens within a week.




monthly chart - click to enlarge
 





weekly chart - click to enlarge

 




 
daily chart - click to enlarge
 





4-hour chart - click to enlarge
 





1-hour chart - click to enlarge
 




 

AUDUSD, Major Turning Point

Hi Traders, 

The AUDUSD is scratching the barrel and is soon to reach a major bottom. Once this occurs, a Major Turning Point and a subsequent rally will follow soon. Not to be missed.

Have a look at the blue lines in the monthly chart for the targets

TARGETS
first down to 

likely: 0.7501
possibly: 0.7433
maybe: 0.7357

Then up:

likely: 0.7796
possibly: 0.8001-0.8069
maybe: 0.85080-0.8569



ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are performing the bottom of major wave 4 (or maybe the first of the 3 major waves that will be part of it).

The daily chart shows that we are performing wave 5 and the 4-hour and 1-hour charts shows that this could happens within a week.

NOTE: This the completion of the "rule of the multiple 5s" ("the 5th of the 5th of the 5th" rule). This is the most important tool of the Elliott Waves Theory to identify major TTPs.



monthly chart - click to enlarge





weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge








Monday, 9 March 2015

EURUSD debacle

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.085) is in the target area (1.0917-1.0759) - see bottom-right, wave "e" in the monthly chart. Hence, it might rebound to 1.0970 (see 1-hour chart) before resuming the downtrend to the area 1.0419-1.0365.

TARGETS

First up to

likely: 1.0970
possibly: 1.0986-1.0988
maybe: 1.1113

then down

possibly: 1.0419-1.0365.
maybe: 1.0206-1.0104

ELLIOTT WAVES

It's hard to count waves when the movement is so sharp and the waves are not properly well defined. However, the daily chart shows that the Euro should  move further down in nine waves.



Monthly chart, click to enlarge






Weekly chart, click to enlarge






Daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hour chart, click to enlarge






1-hour chart, click to enlarge









Wednesday, 25 February 2015

WTI OIL: time to buy back

Hi Traders,

Time to long the WTI OIL (now at $49.27) as it's supposed to rally to the area $60-62. The present price seems to be a good entry point.



TARGETS

likely: area 58.25-59.49
possibly: area 61.69-62.63
maybe: 63.67

The blue lines in each chart represent possible targets



ELLIOTT WAVES

The OIL completed wave 3 in the weekly chart and started "retracement wave 4".

Waves 1 & 2 in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts are just the beginning of the bigger "retracement wave 4" of the weekly chart.




weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge







AUDUSD back to 0.80-82?

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar (now at 0.7860) is set to bounce back to 0.8036-0.8067 and higher.


TARGETS

likely: 0.8036-0.8067
possibly: 0.8168 - 0.8156
maybe: 0.8229-0.8260 

The new targets are marked with blue horizontal lines in  the monthlyweekly and daily charts.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Note the 4-hour and the 1-hour charts that show the Elliott wave count that shows the unfolding of a typical wave 4 of the daily chart.




monthly chart, click to enlarge






weekly chart, click to enlarge






daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hour chart, click to enlarge






1-hour chart, click to enlarge






Tuesday, 10 February 2015

AUDUSD, almost there

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar (now at 0.7820) might drop to the area 0.7536-0.7505 before bouncing back to 0.8036-0.8067 and higher.


TARGETS

first down to the area 0.7536-0.7505 

then up to:

likely: 0.8036-0.8067
possibly: 0.8168 - 0.8156
maybe: 0.8229-0.8260 

The new targets are marked with blue horizontal line in the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

ELLIOTT WAVES

Note the 4-hour and the 1-hour charts that show the start of sub-minuette wave 5 unfolding down to the area 0.7536-0.7505.





monthly chart, click to enlarge






weekly chart, click to enlarge






daily chart, click to enlarge






4-hour chart, click to enlarge






1-hour chart, click to enlarge






Friday, 6 February 2015

Euro downtrend to resume

Hi Traders,

The Euro bottomed at 1.10966 and missed my target for a whisker (1.1091-1.1062). Then it rebounded to 1.15332.

It should now resume the downtrend to finally touch down in the area 1.0917-1.0759. Afterwards, we should see some good rally unless bad news come from Greece and Ukraine.

TARGETS

likely: area 1.0917-1.0759
possibly: area 1.0344-1.0419
maybe: 1.0104-1.0206


ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart below displays all the targets. Wave "e" is not fully displayed because the 1-hour chart is still waiting for one more wave down to the area 1.0917-1.0759.

NOTE: if any bad news comes to the stage we may see the Euro starting an extension that could take it easily below the parity.




monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Monday, 2 February 2015

SPI 200 TOPPING AROUND 5600?

Hi Traders,

In my view the SPI 200 (now at 5572) is performing the fourth leg of a "Flat" pattern (daily chart) that could top just above 5600. If this is true, the subsequent leg of the flat - wave e - should take the form of a new downtrend to 5000-5100.

TARGETS

first up to
likely: 5583-5594
possibly: 5609

Then down to
likely: 5166-5147
possibly: 5108-5089

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays 3 major ways up (in blue, font 11), as it should be. Major wave 3 is almost completed. The daily chart shows the flat a-b-c-d which should be followed by a downtrend to 5166-5147 to form "wave e" as well as "wave 4" down (e4).

NOTE

The new wave "e4" can potentially move down to the area 4993-5019 (weekly chart).




monthly chart - click to enlarge






weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge