Tuesday, 4 August 2015

OIL to rally soon

Hi Traders,

The WTI OIL (now at 45.86) should end the present downtrend in the area 44.72-44.17. It would then start a new uptrend to 68.83-69.51.

TARGETS

first down to the area 44.72-44.17

then up to 

- 47.35 - 48.07
- 49.05 - 49.58
- 51.69 - 52.53


ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart shows that there are two waves out of three: "wave a" up (from 42.58 to 62.55) and "wave b" down to 44.72-44.17.

These are two of the three component (a-b-c) of the major retracement wave 4  which should reach the area 68.83-69.51. The third component will be labelled  "wave c" and will be displayed in 5 waves. 


The 4-hour and 1-hour charts reveal that the last wave down (the very minor sub-sub-minuette wave 5) will be completed within the end of the week (Saturday early morning for Australia).


The channel in the 1-hour chart shows that the OIL is still performing the very last sub-sub-minuette-wave 4 which will be followed by wave 5 down to the area 44.72-44.17.






monthly chart - click to enlarge











weekly chart - click to enlarge













daily chart - click to enlarge













4-hours chart - click to enlarge













1-hours chart - click to enlarge












Wednesday, 15 July 2015

EURUSD, soon to rally

Hi Traders,

The Euro (now at 1.1027) is set to drop a little to 1.0818-1.0800 but only to start a major rally to 1.18 and above.


TARGETS

first down to 1.0818-1.0800

then up to 

likely: 1.1546- 1.1602
possibly: 1.1871-1.1945
maybe: 1.2335- 1.2390


ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly chart displays a compound formation a-b-c-X-a-b-c-W,  where W is still shaping up and will ultimately get the Euro to 1.18.

That formation (a-b-c-X-a-b-c-W) is made out of a Flat, 3 waves up (X), then a Zig-Zag which will be followed by wave W up to 1.18 and over. 

The 4-hour chart shows that the EURUSD must go to 1.0818-1.0800 to complete 5 waves down and eventually start the new uptrend.



monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge







 daily chart - click to enlarge







 4-hour chart - click to enlarge







 1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Tuesday, 16 June 2015

SPI 200 correction up + last dive

Hi Traders,

The SPI200 (now at 5554) should rally close to the area 5661-5678 followed buy the very last short dive to 5395-5385. Then again, a major rally should follow up.

TARGETS

first up to: 5661-5678

then down to:

likely: 5395-5385
possibly: 5348-5336

Then a major rally should follow

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts reveals that there should be only 3 waves up and that we are developing the very last stage of wave 3.

In fact, in the weekly chart, we just need the very last minor wave 5 up (in green, not there yet) to complete the major wave 3 (in grey).

BTW, at this stage, the 4-hour reveals that we still waiting for minor wave 5 down (in magenta) to be finished before starting any rally.

In particular, the 1-hour chart shows that this manor wave 5 is going to be made of 5 waves, the 4th one up still to be completed by reaching the target at 5661-5678.





monthly chart - click to enlarge






weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Thursday, 4 June 2015

DAX 30 correction

Hi Traders,

The DAX might carry on with his correction till the area 10,853-10,759 before resuming the uptrend to break through the 13,000 ceiling.

TARGETS

likely: 10,853-10,759

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the DAX index is on the way to complete the 5th major wave. However, the daily chart indicates that the German Index hasn't even finished with wave 3 (out of 5).

At present we still need to perform wave 4 down and subsequently start wave 5 up just to make wave 3 in blue.

The 4-hour chart reveals that we are currently completing wave 4 of 5.

The 1-hour chart has almost completed 5 minor waves and also suggests that to reach the target at 10,853-10,759 the DAX will probably need a 5-3-5 formation.

It might take till September/November to complete all the waves up required by the weekly chart.






weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge













Thursday, 14 May 2015

WTI OIL correction

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL (now at 60.50) just started a correction that could push it down to $55.

TARGETS

1: 59.86 - 59.83
2: 58.28 - 58.09
3: 56.97 - 56.82
4: 55.17 - 55.03
5: 54.22 - 54.10

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that we're performing the retracement wave 4 (in red), up from the low at 42.58. The first part of this wave seems to be finished and we are staging a retracement with a typical zig-zag downwards (5-3-5).

For more details, see the daily and 4-hour charts





monthly chart - click to enlarge


 







 
weekly chart - click to enlarge


 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
daily chart - click to enlarge


 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
4-hours chart - click to enlarge


 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1-hours chart - click to enlarge


 


 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Wednesday, 13 May 2015

AUDUSD last rally (for now)

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8092) is performing the last rally to the area 0.82335-0.82635 before resuming the downtrend to 0.7267-0.7222 which should be the "final destination".

TARGETS

first up to

likely: 0.8154
possibly: 0.82335-0.82635

then down to

likely: 0.7694-0.7671
possibly: 0.7349-0.7304
maybe: 0.7267-0.7222

ELLIOTT WAVES

The daily chart displays that we are performing wave 4 (in red) to the area 0.82190 - 0.82587. The 4-hour chart reveals  instead that wave 3 (in blue) is not complete yet. Hence, there's plenty of room to move up to the area 0.82335-0.82635.

NOTE: Just bear in mind that once around 0.8162 it will correct to 0.8030 before jumping up again to the area 0.82335-0.82635.





monthly chart - click to enlarge

 






weekly chart - click to enlarge

 





daily chart - click to enlarge

 





4 hour chart - click to enlarge

 





1-hour chart - click to enlarge

 




 

Sunday, 10 May 2015

EURUSD pretending to be weak

Hi Traders,

EURUSD (now at 1.1197) is set to drop to 1.1115-1.1096 or lower and then attempt another rally to the area 1.1459-1.1539.

TARGETS

first down

likely: 1.1115-1.1096
possibly: 1.1040-1.1028
maybe: 1.0987

then up

likely: 1.1425-1.1459
possibly: 1.15391.1565

ELLIOTT WAVES

The Euro is performing wave "e" in the monthly chart and wave 4 in the weekly & daily charts. The 4-hour chart reveals that wave 4 is not completed as we are expecting 5 waves up (in black) from the bottom of wave 2 (in blue).


monthly chart - click to enlarge







weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge








Thursday, 7 May 2015

SPI 200 major reverse

Hi Traders,

First some apologies for not writing for a month but I now work for Vantage FX in Sydney and there's little time for other activities.

BTW, you are very welcome to call me at +61 2 8999 2046 - 4pm to 11pm - or  through Skype (mariodconti).



The SPI 200

After hitting level 6009 (as predicted last year) the SPI 200 started reversing down and it's now close to the first low in the area 5540-5521.

After this low, it's supposed to bounce back up to 4685-5697 but only to follow with a new downtrend to 5459-5475 or even 5334-5320.

NOTE: If this wave count is correct, this major reversal could get much lower then 5000 over the medium run.

  
TARGETS

  • down to 5540-5521
  • up to 4685-5697
  • down to 5459-5475 or 5334-5320

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart shows that the 3 waves we were expecting (in blue, font 12) are fully shaped. This three waves are part of the major wave 2 (in red, font 14) that topped at 6009.

Theoretically this is it, and, unless the last minute surprise, we don't expect any wave 4 and 5 up. Basically, it's a major reversal.

The 4-hour chart shows that we have started wave 3 down but we have only completed 3 waves out of 5. Hence, expect the SPI 200 to bounce back to form wave 4 up.




  
 monthly chart - click to enlarge

weekly chart - click to enlarge
daily chart - click to enlarge
4-hou chart - click to enlarge

Thursday, 9 April 2015

USDSGD, starting the last rally

Hi Traders, 

The USDSGD reached the predicted target area - between the blue horizontal lines in the daily chart - and started the last rally that should take it up to the area 1.4002-1.4205 (see monthly chart)

Check the pair of horizontal blue lines in the monthly chart and in the weekly chart to visually identify the new target areas.

 
TARGETS

likely: 1.3993
possibly: 1.4048 - 1.4103
maybe: 1.4223
 
 

ELLIOTT WAVES

 The daily and the 4-hour charts display clearly that the wave 4 is fully formed. It should be followed by a rally named wave 5 that should take the USDSGD to the targets above indicated.

 



 
monthly chart - click to enlarge


 


 

 





weekly chart - click to enlarge

 







daily chart - click to enlarge

 






4-hour chart - click to enlarge

 






1-hour chart - click to enlarge

 









Thursday, 2 April 2015

AUDUSD , still moving down

Hi Traders, 

The AUDUSD reached the area I suggested since early 2014 at 0.7590-0.7528 - see green horizontal lines in the monthly chart - and I  honestly thought that the ultimate low was going to be around 0.7501.

However the wave count in the 4-hour and 1-hour charts suggests that the downtrend may not be over yet.

Hence, in case there's a breakout of the support at 0.7501 - with or without some help from the RBA next week - the AUDUSD might finally sink to the next target at 0.7277-0.7241. 

Check the pair of horizontal blue lines in the monthly chart to visually identify the target areas.

 
TARGETS

likely: 0.7501
possibly: 0.7424-0.7386
maybe: 0.7267-0.7222
 
 

ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and weekly charts display that we are reaching the bottom of major wave 4. See the NOTE below.

The 1-hour chart reveals that we still have some little way down to complete wave 5 (in green).

The 1-hour chart further clarifies that this wave 5 is still at the beginning, having completed only sub-waves 1, 2 and maybe 3 (in green) out of 5.

Hence, once the small wave 3 is fully formed, the AUDUSD should bounce back to level 0.76 to form a very small wave 4 in the 1-hour chart.

In turn, the latter will be followed by the small wave 5 to 0.75001 or down to 0.7277-0.7241.

NOTE: Once the entire set of five waves occurred in each time framethis will automatically enforce the "rule of the multiple 5s" ("the 5th of the 5th of the 5th" rule).

This is the most important tool of the Elliott Waves Theory to identify major TTPs (Time Turning Points).



FIBONACCI

If major wave 4 ends in the area 0.7277-0.7241, it will match 100% the length of major wave 2 - see the monthly chart.

Furthermore, that area also marks a Fibonacci "Confluence" (K) where two major Fibo Nodes (61.8% and 76.4%) coincide. See the monthly chart.



 



 
monthly chart - click to enlarge

 


 

 




weekly chart - click to enlarge
 







daily chart - click to enlarge
 






4-hour chart - click to enlarge
 






1-hour chart - click to enlarge