Thursday, 22 January 2015

Gold New Top

Hi Traders,

Gold (now at 1292) topped at 1305.22 ( missing by a whisker my target at 1306.67 - see daily chart below) and started a new downtrend.

If this is just a retracement, the new downtrend should lead to the area 1240.41-1238.18 or even the area 1223.05-1221.45.

Conversely, if GOLD resumed the original downtrend, the yellow metal should finally bottom down at 1089 or a bit lower.

TARGETS

If this is just a retracement:

support 1: 1257.81 -1254.96
support 2: 1240.41-1238.18
support 3: 1223.05-1221.45
support 4: 1203.31- 1201.47

If Gold resumed the original downtrend:

likely: 1089.05
possibly: 1043-1032

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the top at 1305.22 marked the top of "wave e" which is also the top of "major wave 4". A short  wave 5 downwards should unfold soon.

NOTE:

Some say that Silver bottomed down on Dec 1st and started a new major uptrend already. Hence, the above analysis would generate an inconsistency given the tight Gold-Silver correlation.

Definitively possible, but for the time being, I stick to the Elliott wave rules which seem to be leading to a new major low.

FURTHERMORE

Some may find the wave labelling in the 4-hour chart and in the 1-hour chart "a bit too bold". Understandable, but it would make no difference. Other interpretations would probably lead to the same result: a downtrend.




weekly chart - click to enlarge




daily chart - click to enlarge




4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge










Friday, 16 January 2015

WTI OIL, the last dive, for now

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL is set to perform the last dive to the area $42-$40 followed by a long trading range between the new low and $61-63.

TARGETS

likely: 42.04-43.14
possibly: 40.94-40.39

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly and daily charts show that we are bottoming down by completing wave 3 (of 5) down to the above targets. The 4-hour and 1-hour charts show that it's a matter of hours for this to occur.

The new low at $42-$40 should be followed by the retracement wave 4 (weekly and daily charts), made out of 5 waves. It might unfold with a triangle or a similar formation, with the first leg reaching up the area at $61-$63.




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge



Thursday, 8 January 2015

WTI OIL bottoming soon

Hi Traders, Happy 2015!

The WTI OIL (now at $48.81) is performing a small rebound to $50-$52 before resuming the downtrend to the support area at $45-$42.

After reaching the new low, it should start a long trading range (months) with a top around $69-$70.

TARGETS:

first up to:
likely:$50.20-$50.29
possibly: $51.27-$51.75

then down to:
likely: $45.34-$44.65
possibly: $43.14-$42.04

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that wave 3 (in magenta) will be fully shaped only by reaching the target down to $45-$42. This will be followed by wave 4, an "a-b-c-d-e wave" that might take few months to reach the top at $69-$70.

The fact that wave 3 is not finished (weekly chart) is revealed in the 4-hour chart where wave 5 downwards still requires the small waves 4 and 5 (in green, font 8) to enfold and fully complete the pattern.

The 1-hour chart also confirms the same ongoing rebound (wave 4) that should lead up to the area around $50-$52 (wave 4). This wave will be followed by wave 5 down to the area $45-$42.

The completion of these 5 little waves in the 1-hour chart will complete wave 3 in the weekly chart.

All of this (1-hour chart) is likely to occur within a week or two.



weekly chart. click to enlarge






daily chart. click to enlarge






4-hour chart. click to enlarge






1-hour chart. click to enlarge

Monday, 24 November 2014

The Swiss referendum on Gold

Hi Traders,

Please read about Swiss referendum on gold reserves. Very interesting.
http://snbchf.com/2014/09/ron-paul-swiss-gold-referendum/

If the Swiss people see this "gold-guaranteed-Switzerland" as a good business, they will go for it.

Besides, there's a precedent that speaks out loudly: since 1968, Switzerland enormously treasured from the world inflation by getting a huge capital inflow that lasted decades.

This in turn, generated more wealth management for the banks and a lot more business for the country. 

This is a clear signal to the world that Switzerland is getting ready for the upcoming inflation and it's back into the good old role of "safe banking heaven" as usual.

Switzerland surprised me many times and may do it again, especially after the ongoing Real Estate Bubble caused by the peg to Euro.

Finally, as I said in my previous newsletters, after the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) on May 19,  the 21 European Central Banks stopped selling Gold

So, who is still selling Gold right now? Well, buckle up: volatility is coming soon.

Mario D. Conti



Monday, 17 November 2014

WTI OIL very last dive

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL (now at 75.00) is very close to the ultimate support around 72.40. I believe that the downtrend is very close to the end of the line. Expect strong volatility as the new uptrends starts over.

TARGETS

First down to the area around 72.40
then up to the area 85.46-85.88 (see daily chart)

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the a-b-c-d-e will be completed soon by reaching the area around 72.40 where a new uptrend should start shortly.

The 4-hour and 1-hour chart are clearly sounding the bell as OIL is staging the very last sub-minuette wave down to the target.




weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Tuesday, 11 November 2014

NATURAL GAS NEW UPTREND

Hi Traders,

As predicted, Natural Gas topped within the target area at 4.50-4.56. Then again, it retraced to another predicted target area at 4.21-4.18.

Now, Natural Gas should resume the uptrend to the area 5.10-5.13 and higher.

TARGETS

likely: 5.10-5.13
possibly: 5.37-5.38

ELLIOTT WAVES

Wave 2 in the 4-hour chart stopped right in the middle of wave 4 of a lower degree, as by Ralph Elliott teachings.

This new upcoming uptrend is nothing more than "wave 3" of the recently started trend at 3.537. See the charts below.



weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge





1-hour chart - click to enlarge






WTI OIL Bottoming Down

Hi Traders,

WTI OIL is very close to the support at 75.62-74.94. The sputtering downtrend is "kicking the bucket" and the start of a new uptrend is only hours away.

TARGETS

First down to the area 75.62-74.94
then up to the area 87.53-87.62

ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart shows that the a-b-c-d-e will be completed by reaching the area 75.62-74.94 where a new uptrend should start shortly.

The 4-hour and 1-hour chart are clearly sounding the bell as OIL is staging the very last sub-minuette wave down to the target.


weekly chart - click to enlarge





daily chart - click to enlarge





4-hour chart - click to enlarge






wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge




Gold bouncing to 1220?

Hi Traders,

GOLD (now at $1155) is performing the last rally to 1220 before resuming the very last ditch to the area around 1089. The present level of 1155 seems to be a good entry point for a short rally to 1200-1220.

BTW, once the downtrend resumes, it should stop around level 1089 or end a bit lower around the area at $1043-32 that seems to be the absolute minimum and it's considered an unbreakable support.

If this analysis is correct, this would mark the very end of the line for the 38 months downtrend which should be followed soon by a new major uptrend.




TARGETS

first up to:

likely: 1200
possibly: 1220
maybe: 1235


then down to

likely: $1089
possibly: $1043-$1032




ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the formation of wave 5 (in magenta, from March 16, 2014). Wave 5 will be made of 5 waves, three of them already completed and the fourth one in formation. 

After wave 4 up, the last wave down will follow (wave 5) which will complete major wave 4 downwards (from Sept 2011). 

The daily chart shows that "Wave 3" is completed and it's starting a rally to form wave four (in magenta) to 1200-1220-1231 

Wave 5 will then follow to establish the historical low at 1089 or a bit lower to the area 1043-1032.





weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge



4-hour chart - click to enlarge





Friday, 7 November 2014

SILVER approaching the ultimate target


Hi Traders,


SILVER (now at $15.33) is fast approaching the predicted target around $14.63.

The precious metal should end the downtrend above the $14.00 area that seems to be the absolute minimum and it's considered an unbreakable support.

If it's true, this would mark the end of the line for the 3.5 years downtrend which should be followed soon by a new major uptrend.




TARGETS

likely: $14.63

possibly: $14.00




ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly and  weekly chart displays the nearing completion of both wave 5 (in red) and wave 3 (in magenta) which will both complete our major wave 4 downwards (in grey). 

The daily chart shows that  "Wave 5" (in magenta) is on the way to be completed as well but displays only 3 smaller waves down (in red) out of 5. 

Usually, the last wave down (daily chart) is made out of 5 waves. However, either my wave count is incorrect or this is a rare case of a final wave made of 3 waves only. 

BTW, it wouldn't make much difference. In either cases, it's almost over.






monthly chart - click to enlarge








weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge





GOLD approaching the ultimate target

Hi Traders,

GOLD (now at $1134) is fast approaching the predicted target around 1089.

Even in the event of a breakout below this level, the yellow metal should end the downtrend above the area at $1043-32 that seems to be the absolute minimum and it's considered an unbreakable support.

If it's true, this would mark the end of the line for the 38 months downtrend which should be followed soon by a new major uptrend.




TARGETS

likely: $1089
possibly: $1043-$1032




ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the formation of wave 5 (in magenta) which will complete major wave 4 downwards (in grey). 

The daily chart displays "wave 1" and "wave 2" (in magenta). "Wave 3" is almost completed and it's made out of 5 smaller waves down (in red). 

Usually, the last wave down (weekly chart) is made out of 5 waves. However, either my wave count is incorrect or this is a rare case of a final wave made of 3 waves only. 

BTW, it wouldn't make much difference. In either cases, it's almost over.







weekly chart - click to enlarge






daily chart - click to enlarge