Monday, 15 September 2014

Gold rebounding a bit

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Gold has been trending down since September 2011. Is there a chance of hitting an absolute minimum in the upcoming months? Are we on the verge of  new major uptrend?

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GOLD - ANALYSIS



As I said in my previous newsletters, after the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) on May 19, the message from the 21 European Central Banks is very clear: European gold sales are almost over.


I also said that this is supposed to happen only after September 27, 2014 when the fourth CBGA is going to be enforced. Note that the FED quantitative easing is supposed to end around mid October 2014 as well. This is likely to bring weakness to both Stocks & Commodities and strengthen the USD for a short time.



CONCLUSION


Gold 
(now at $1235.00) reached the target at 1226 as predicted (see daily chart) and might rebound to 1252 and the area $1266-69 to form wave 4 (see targets in the 4-hour chart). This would soon be followed by another leg down to the area 1211.71-1207.97 and lower.

ELLIOTT WAVES

There's a good chance for Gold to finally sink to a new "historical low" at 1064-1054 or a bit further down to $1089 and the area $1043-$1032. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to a forecast of $1050 as a primary low.

This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable.
If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow.


TARGETS:

first up to 1252 and maybe the area $1266-69

then down to
T1: the area 1211.71-1207.97
T2: the area 1179-1180

followed by
T1: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
T2: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
T3: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)




Weekly chart - click to enlarge





Daily chart - click to enlarge





Four-hour chart - click to enlarge





One-hour chart - click to enlarge


Thursday, 11 September 2014

AUDUSD as predicted

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AUDUSD - ANALYSIS


The AUDUSD (now at 0.9129) did exactly as predicted. After getting up to level 0.94 it tanked to 0.9111 and bounced back up to 0.9217. Here the major downtrend resumed. Although another small rally to 0.9236-38 is still possible, the closest target downwards is now 0.9085 and the area 0.9005-0.8997.




TARGETS:
T1: 0.9085 and the area 0.9005-0.8997.
T2: the area 0.8892-0.8869.
T3: the area 0.8578-0.8509
T4: the area 0.8420-0.8300.



ELLIOTT WAVES


In the monthly chart (and in the weekly chart) "wave 5" downwards is in the making as the Aussie is pointing down to 0.9086 and below (long term trend).

In the 1-hour chart " Wave 1 and 2 - of a lower degree - are completed. Wave 3 is being traced.

The most likely targets appear to be the area 0.8578-0.8509 and the area 0.8420-0.8300. See monthly chart and weekly chart



Monthly chart - click to enlarge






Weekly chart - click to enlarge








Daily chart - click to enlarge






Wave oscillator on a daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge








1-hour chart - click to enlarge





Sunday, 7 September 2014

EURGBP




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EURGBP - ANALYSIS


The EURGBP (now at 0.7931) is set to reach a temporary top around 0.8155 and maybe 0.8227. Then it should resume the downtrend to the area 0.7693 - 0.7615.

NOTE: The BOE may stop the fall of the Euro if it breaches the support at 0.7500-0.7445. If this doesn't happen, the Euro may reach level 0.69-0.68.


TARGETS:

Topping soon at
likely: around 0.8155 
possibly: around 0.8227

Then down to:

likely:  0.7693
possibly: 0.7615



ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart and weekly chart display a huge a-b-c-d-e, where "wave e" should be made out of 5 smaller waves. Waves 1-2-3 are already there and wave 4 is still in formation. 
The daily chart displays the start of wave 4 to 0.8155-0.8227.




Monthly chart - click to enlarge







Weekly chart - click to enlarge







Daily chart - click to enlarge









Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge










Monday, 1 September 2014

AUDJPY close to top




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AUDJPY - ANALYSIS


The AUDJPY (now at 97.36) is set to reach a temporary top around 98.73 or even the area 99.33-100.17 and then stage a correction to the area around 93-92




TARGETS:

Topping soon at
likely: 98.73
possibly: 99.33-100.17

Then down to:

likely:  93.01
possibly: 92.53
maybe: area 92.12




ELLIOTT WAVES

The monthly chart reveals that we witnessed a huge two-step pattern (1-2-3  retracement) from Oct 24, 2013 to Apr 11, 2013 followed by a & b, where b is not entirely finished (weekly chart and daily chart) and c will come to existence after the top.


The 4-hour chart displays only 4 waves up where the 5th is not complete yet. Similarly the 1
-hour chart.






Monthly chart - click to enlarge







Weekly chart - click to enlarge







Daily chart - click to enlarge









Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge





Saturday, 30 August 2014

SILVER still weak




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SILVER - ANALYSIS



The weekly chart shows that Silver is staging "the last leg down" to the target around $15 (see also the 4-hour chart) .

Meanwhile, in the very short term, the XAGUSD (now at $19.452) should conclude the present minor downtrend in the area $18.988-18.937 before bouncing back up to $19.91/97 (see daily chart).

At that level the downtrend should resume.




TARGETS:

Bottoming soon around:  $18.98-18.93
Then up to: $19.91-19.97
After this top: resuming the downtrend to $15



ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart reveals that the triangle ended at the top of "wave e4" and a new downtrend started from that top.


The 4-hour chart displays only 8 waves down (out of 9). Once wave 9 is completed (to $18.98-18.93 or so), the whole set of waves will be labelled "wave 1" (out of 5), the first wave of the new downtrend.





NOTE

Note the accumulation period of 13 months in the monthly chart and the accumulation period of 53 weeks in the weekly chart.






Monthly chart - click to enlarge







Weekly chart - click to enlarge







Daily chart - click to enlarge








Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge



Thursday, 28 August 2014

USDSGD good entry

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SGDUSD - ANALYSIS


The Singapore Dollar (now at 1.2457 ) is set to temporarily climb to the area 1.2577-1.2681 or even 1.2608-1.2615 (see daily chart), before resuming the main downtrend started on Jan 23.


The present level (1.2457 ) seems to be a good entry point for a long. Similarly, the top in the area 1.2577-1.2681 (or maybe the area at 1.2608-1.2615) could be your entry point for a very good short.

The USDSGD should be able to get to 1.22 before staging the next significant retracement.




TARGETS:

topping soon at:
likely: 1.2577-1.2681
possibly: 1.2608-1.2615

Then down to:
likely: 1.22
possibly: 1.19140


ELLIOTT WAVES


The weekly chart reveals that the triangle ended  with "wave e" and stared a downtrend from there.

The daily chart displays only 3 waves down (of 5) and the development of the two-step-patterns up to 
1.2577-1.2681 or 1.2608-1.2615.





Weekly chart - click to enlarge








Daily chart - click to enlarge














Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge









4-hour chart - click to enlarge









Wednesday, 27 August 2014

SPI200: END OF THE LINE FOR NOW

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SPI200 - ANALYSIS


The Australian SPI200 (now at 5630) might stop and reverse at the target at 5662 - or in the area 5662-5747. Both the Aussie SPI200 and the US S&P500 seem to be determined to end it this week.

Unless there's a last minute surprise this appears to be the end of the line  for now, although NOT the absolute end of the line. The explanation in  the Elliott Waves section below.



TARGETS:
topping soon at:

likely: 5662
possibly: 5747

Then down to:
possibly 5200 in 61-100 days (2.0-3.3 months)



ELLIOTT WAVES


What we see now in the 1-hour chart is that the "impulse wave 5" - of a very minor degree - is pointing up to the area 5662 and maybe 5747.


But what is similarly clear in the monthly chart (and in the weekly chart) is that this is only the top of "wave 3", leaving us another 18-21 weeks to implement the "retracement wave 4" down to 5200 (likely with an a-b-c-d-e).


Once started and completed "the retracement wave 4" down to 5200 the SPI200 should make an absolute top at 5878 and maybe the area 5940-6029.

For now, this will be only the top of minor wave 3 (daily chart)






Monthly chart - click to enlarge






Weekly chart - click to enlarge






Daily chart - click to enlarge









Wave oscillator on a Daily chart - click to enlarge







4-hour chart - click to enlarge








1-hour chart - click to enlarge



Tuesday, 26 August 2014

AUDUSD retracement

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AUDUSD - ANALYSIS


The AUDUSD (now at 0.9312) started a rebound that should bring it back up to the area 0.9370-0.9374 and maybe the area 0.9454-1.9461

But unless it breaks the resistance at 0.9667 it should resume the major downtrend to 0.8600 and the area 0.8420-0.8300.




TARGETS:
first up to:


likely: the area 0.9370-0.9374

possibly: the area 0.9454-0.9461

then down to:


likely: 0.9086

possibly: 0.8600
maybe: the area 0.8420-0.8300



ELLIOTT WAVES


What we see now in the 4-hour chart is that the "retracement wave 4" - of a very minor degree - is pointing up to the area 0.9370-0.9374 and maybe the area 0.9454-1.9461 (short term trend).

But what is similarly clear in the monthly chart (and in the weekly chart) is that "wave 5" downwards is still missing. Hence, the Aussie is still pointing down to 0.9086 and below (long term trend).





Monthly chart - click to enlarge






Weekly chart - click to enlarge








Daily chart - click to enlarge






Wave oscillator on a daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge








1-hour chart - click to enlarge






Monday, 25 August 2014

S&P500 diving soon?

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S&P500 - ANALYSIS



Hi Traders,



The S&P500 appears to be really close to the end of the line and it might stage the very last rally to the area 2007-2073 before reversing a 5 years uptrend.

Please note that, at this stage, if anyone screams "abandon ship!" some high frequency trading systems might trigger a havoc.

Hence, the level of risk is very high and might be wise staying at the window till a genuine reversal takes place.



ELLIOTT WAVES

The weekly chart displays the end of major wave 3. Note that some Elliott traders think that we it's the end of major wave 5.


Whatever it is, it doesn't make much difference. We still expect a reversal pattern.

Note in the monthly chart that unusual a-b-c in red. I labelled it that way for 2 reasons:

  • in the Russel 2000 Index that pattern is a real a-b-c "Flat"
  • each leg is made of 3 or 7 waves (no 5 leg waves), a clear indication of a "Flat" retracement pattern.

BTW, the 4-hour chart and the 1-hour chart display an extension in wave 5 and an exhaustion gap. All signs of impending end of the 5 years uptrend.

Finally, note the 45 degrees Gann line in the monthly chart

DISCREPANCY:

Both the Gann line in the monthly chart and the 36 weeks vertical line in the weekly chart indicate the mid of November for the end of the uptrend.

Consequently, they might be a "Truncation", ie. an irregular a-b-c Flat where "b" is higher than the orthodox top.  We'll see. 

TARGETS:

first up to 2007-2039 or even 2073 
then down to
likely: 1892-1888
possibly:1732 




Monthly chart - click to enlarge






Weekly chart - click to enlarge






Daily chart - click to enlarge






4-hour chart - click to enlarge






1-hour chart - click to enlarge