Thursday 9 October 2014

AUDUSD back to 0.90?

Hi Traders,

The AUDUSD (now at 0.8867) has made a double bottom around 0.8660 and seems to be heading to 0.90.

The monthly and weekly chart display the double bottom and the support at 0.8660. The daily chart shows all the possible Fibonacci targets (blue horizontal lines).


T1: 0.8923-0.8935
T2: 0.8975
T3: 0.8997-0.9000
T4: 0.9068-0.9073
T5: 0.9109-0.9119


To understand the situation of the Elliott Waves we need to see the weekly chart. According to Ralph Elliott, every MAJOR WAVE 4 always ends within the territory of another WAVE 4 of a MINOR DEGREE (in the blue quadrant). In this case, the target was in the area 0.9405-0.8066.

The AUDUSD bottomed right in the middle at 0.86419. It has deployed 5 waves - daily chart -  and the last one was made of 5 waves itself - 4-hour chart.

A question arises: is this really the bottom of major wave 4? I wouldn't be so sure. Let's say that the last sharp drop in the weekly chart looks very much like an unfinished job. After this new uptrend, the Aussie might still display its  potential to drop to 0.83 and maybe much lower.


If this new uptrend occurs in 3 waves only (daily chart) - possibly below 0.91800 - this could be a sign that it is a just a temporary retracement.

Monthly chart - click to enlarge

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator - 4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge

Monday 6 October 2014

GOLD to rebound

Hi Traders

GOLD (now at 1198) has reached the target at 1182 and it's now supposed to rebound to 1226 and higher


First up to

likely: 1226
possibly: 1231-32
maybe: 1241-43

Then down to
likely: 1164-1154 (to form a triple bottom)
possibly: 1089 (to reach the theoretical fibo target)
maybe: 1043-1032 (to sit on the primary support)


GOLD is bouncing back up to form the very minor wave 4 in the 1-hour chart and 4-hour chart.

Then Gold might finally sink to a new "historical low" at 1064-1054 or $1089. The area at $1043-$1032 is, by the way, the ultimate support. Note that even Goldman-Sachs still sticks to forecast a low at $1050.

This low should mark the absolute minimum that everyone was waiting for, given that the ultimate support at $1043-$1032 is considered almost unbreakable

This final wave would be the "5th of the 5th of the 5th" in the 1-hour chart and 4-hour chart. It would also complete major wave 4 in the weekly chart. If this is true, a major uptrend should then follow.

Weekly chart - click to enlarge

Daily chart - click to enlarge

Wave oscillator - daily chart - click to enlarge

4-hour chart - click to enlarge

1-hour chart - click to enlarge