Sunday 3 February 2013

WTI Oil, Sunday February 3, 2013

Hi Traders

Many stop loss went burst on Friday due to a volatile session. No wonder: Wti Oil is a volture's market by definition. That's to say, we need to pay twice as much attention to identify setups, triggers and entry points.

As you can see in the weekly chart below, the Oil seems to undergo a "two step pattern" which is basically a 1-2-3 up.

Possible SETUP

The chart could get to the area around $99.30-50, then some  zig-zag retracement down (a-b-c-d-e) to the area around $94 followed but a top around $101.8.

click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit

There's always some Fibonacci simmetry in these two-step-patterns.

In this case - as in the daily chart below - if we project the 76.4% of major wave 1 (grey, font14) from point 2 (grey, font14), we get level $101.8.

The Oil is now trying to complete wave 3 out of 5.

click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit
As you see in the 4h-chart below, minor wave 5 (of wave 3) is almost complete. There should be one more little rally to $99.30-50 before the temporary reversal that starts wave 4.
Our indicators show that it's almost the moment to get in for a quick long to $99.30-50, provided that your get a nice candlestick reversal in the 5-15 min chart, maybe around $97.30-97.15.
  • The "Wave" oscillator (similar to Bolliger bands) warns us that the session on Monday could be slowly downwards during the day (Sydney time)
  • The Awesome Oscillator didn't get to zero yet - therefore wait for it.
  • the Stochastic is not oversold yet
 click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit

In the 1-hour chart below there are 5 nice waves down (a-b-c-d-e) and a Reversal Candle. Still, it may retrace to $97.30-97.15 were the should be another reversal candle.

click the chart to enlarge, "esc" to exit