Thursday 1 March 2018

Gold doomed to fail?

Hi Traders,

Even the stones on the ground noticed that GOLD  (now at 1313) is inversely correlated to Bitcoin. When Gold topped at 1366 at the end of January,  Bitcoin bottomed at 6,981 at the very beginning of February.

Now that Bitcoin is moving up again (now at 10,427), Gold shows extreme weakness and it started a journey that should take it to 1301 and to the area 1251-1234 for a start.


Although the XAUUSD is supposed to bounce back to 1330, overall it looks extremely bearish - see the daily chart - and might not be able to find a serious support before hitting 1239 or even the area 1178-1143 (see the weekly chart).


The identification of the Elliott Waves often poses some real challenges when it comes to some complex waves labelled by the purists "wyz-x-wyz".

For the time being, I prefer to avoid that fancy stuff and stick to the hypothesis of a wedge formation - see the weekly chart - that might require another low around 1200.

However, just bear in mind that, in the very long run, this kind of pattern has the potential to drag the yellow metal down to the area 882-845. See the targets in the monthly chart.

Want to see some fancy stuff? Check the supports on the 4-hours chart. Basically, there's a support every $11

Monthly chart, click to enlarge

Weekly chart, click to enlarge

Daily chart, click to enlarge

4-hours chart, click to enlarge

Monday 26 February 2018

WTI OIL to top soon?

Hi Traders,

The WTI OIL (now at $63.40) might top around 64.75-65.05 and temporarily reverse to the 57-55 area.


On the monthly chart, check the last red candlestick: it looks like an inverted hammer. This typical candle appears during the making of wave-4, which is the last retracement wave before the final rally (wave-5).

The weekly chart shows the giant a-b-c started in Feb 2016. It could end in the 69.6-70.50 area or even the 74-77 area.

As in the daily chart, another smaller wave-four is unfolding with an a-b-c where wave-a is already in place and wave-b is topping soon. This demonstrates that this is only a temporary retracement.

The 4-hours chart and the 1-hour chart draw our attention to the incoming target at 64.75-65.05.

Monthly chart. Click to enlarge

Weekly chart. Click to enlarge

Daily chart. Click to enlarge

4-hours chart. Click to enlarge

1-hour chart. Click to enlarge