Thursday, 29 March 2012

SPI200, Thursday, March 29 2012

I've been asked to publish my analysis of the SPI200. Well, it doesn't seems reassuring at all.

Starting from the MONTHLY CHART below, it's preatty clear that the SPI200  failed to reach level 4,400 and it actually stopped right on level 50% (4,363). If an A-B-C-D-E unfolds the target could be 3,700.

In the WEEKLY CHART below I use a count of 7 waves - in red - which is equivalent to a 3 wave retracement pattern. Instead a count of  9 is equivalent to a 5 wave pattern - in white.

The chart completed 5 waves up and doesn't seem to be willing to rise any further. The relevant information in this chart is that curious formation called PINOCCHIO, a candlestick that shows a possible target at 3,700.

The daily chart below confirms 5 waves up - in white. Short tem target a 4,200 (the red line). Note the channel in blue: the chart touched the boundaries 4 times. Consequently, it's expected to breakout soon. The last wave up (wave 5) is considered a "through over", an indication of impending reversal according to Gann.

The 4H CHART below shows the completion of 9 wave up - equivalent to 5 waves - after wave 4 in ligtht blue. The last 2 candles with long tails confirm the possible reversal pattern. This is also a double top which further confirms a reversal condition.

Finally, the 1H CHART below shows clearly all 9 waves up, plus a double top. Also, just under the number 9, there is a reversal engulfing candlestick pattern.

What I will try to do: shortening the index by entering just below level 4,350. Target 4,302 (level 50%).

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

EURUSD, Wednesday, March 28 2012

The EURUSD started the new uptrend almost 8 weeks ago as for the monthly chart below. After completing wave 1 and 2 is now heading for wave 3. But watch out: if the uptrend stops at the upper boundary of the blue channel - 1.3440-1.3480 - we would have to re-think the whole wave count.

The weekly chart below confirm the temporary wave count but also show that we are on support resistance and we may have a small retracement

The daily chart below also shows a breakway candlestick which is usually very bullish

The 4h chart below also shows that we reached the target a 1.33850 followed but the start of retracement wave 4. If the wave count is right, the possible targets are 1.13267and 1.32400.

The 1h chart below shows our wave count more in detail. Given the major confluence (K), the new set of 5 waves down should fetch 1.3280. Also, other lower confluences are can be attained.

Tuesday, 27 March 2012

USDYEN, Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Hi everyone, I'm currently trying hard to make this Blog working. Just bear with me for a while. The Content Management System simply drives me nuts. I will try to keep it updated every day.

As you see by the 30min chart I'm waiting for a mild retreat to get long again. The pair stopped just before the 38.2% trend line and touched the confluence (K)

This is part of a long process. as you can see by the monthly chart below, the USDYEN completed a 120 month cycle (10years), from Feb 2002 to Feb 2012. This new phase might take it back to 101.

Below USDYEN weekly. If the wave count is correct, the pair is trying to complete wave 5, i.e. last inpulse wave up, for the time being.

Also check the USDYEN in the 4hour chart below which stopped right at a conflunce. If that is a hammer, it's the start of a trend. Instead, if that is a Pinocchio then the chart will come back to the same low  before starting the new uptrend. Will see.