Friday 1 March 2013

GOLD, March 1, 2013

Hi Traders,

Are we done with the Gold's retracement wave started in September 2011?


As of the weekly chart below, Gold (now at 1582) has almost completed the "a-b-c-d-e" wave that contitutes "wave 4".  If this is true, this should mark the end of the last retracement down before the start of the final major rally made of "impulse wave 5".

NOTE: I want to underline that some major Elliott Wave Theorists disagree with the idea of another leg up, arguing that Gold has already completed all 5 waves and there's only one way: down.


Whichever perspective you decide to pursue, Gold should still move down the area around 1540-60 (now at 1582) and then start a rally but:
  • in the first case Gold should initiate a major rally from the area 1555 with a target well above level 2100. 
  • in the second case it should stage a minor rally to 1700 followed by the start of a major downtrend which would be confirmed by the breakout of the support at 1533.

See the "a-b-c-d-e wave" (major wave 4) in the weekly chart below

click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit
 See the almost completion of "wave e" with the display of 5 waves down in the daily chart below
 click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit

See that the "fifth of the fifth of the fifth" is not completed yet in the 4-hour chart below (but it's a matter of hours). This should be done by reaching level 1555 or so.
  • There's a good chance of a double bottom in the 4-hour and 1-hour chart.
  • Check for the reversal candlestick in the 1-hour chart before entering any trade.
  • make sure that the "wave oscillator" reverses in the 1-hour charts. To do that you should be able to observe:
  • two little spikes (sharp angles) in the upper lines (the red and the grey line) followed by the position swap of the lines meaning that:
  • both grey lines should get inside and both red lines should move outside 

 click the chart to enlarge and "esc" to exit

Thursday 28 February 2013

AUDUSD, Thursday, February 28, 2013

Hi Traders,

The Aussie Dollar - now at 1.027 - could stage a limited rally before finally heading South by starting a major downtrend.


The AUD completed all 5 major waves up. Then it started a major downtrend with the completion of wave "a" down of a very minor grade. 

Now, there should be a correction upwards to the resistances at  1.034-1.0365 or even 1.039 - to be labelled wave "b" (of a minor grade) - followed by a major downtrend.

Note: the above targets could be the perfect Entry Point for a great short, provided that you wait for the complete development of 3 waves up (two-step-pattern).

At the top of the two-step-pattern there should be a clear reversal candlestick.

Finally, please use the "wave oscillator" (see below) plotted in the 1-hour chart - or lower - before entering the new trade.

SHORT RANGE TARGET: wave "b" to 1.034-1.0367 or even 1.039.
MEDIUM RANGE TARGET: 0.939 and 0.88.


The wave oscillator in the 4-hour chart below shows that the new little retracement up is already started. 


The red and grey lines swapped positions as soon as the new uptrend started: the red lines - which run inside in case of downtrend -  moved outside and the grey lines moved inside, showing a new uptrend.

This is a confirmation of the new retracement up (wave "b").
Also, note the completion of the last 5 waves down.