Thursday 29 November 2012

SPI200, Thursday NOV 29, 2012

Hi Traders,

Before getting into my analysis, please take note that I will run a course in January in Sydney: TRADING WITH ELLIOTT WAVES AND FIBONACCI.
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WHERE: State Library of NSW, Macquarie St, Sydney
WHEN: Friday, Jan 18, Saturday Jan 19 and Sunday Jan 20.
HOW MUCH: $2,870 for early birds (by Friday, Jan 11) reduced from $3,020. Save $150! Non members: $3,170.
Bonus! 4 weeks of The Elliott Waves Newsletter twice a week, on Wednesday and Sunday.
HOW: There will be very little blah-blah and you will be asked to practise on paper charts and your laptop straight away. Check the content HERE
We will identify set ups and triggers on a wide range of FX & Commodity Charts and we will setup your trading platform to be ready to trade straight away.
My teachings are structured in progressive stages: every bit of information will be followed but practical application on real charts.



Note that, to make things more clear, I no longer show displaced moving averages on charts.

The SPI200 future seems ready for the very last (little) rally that would start a major bearish reversal.

Last week I said that we were starting a rally - heading to the area around 4686 - and the rally occurred promptly. I also said that this rally might stop running early - in the area 4565-4583 - hence staging a double top.

However there's now a good chance for it to stop even earlier: around 5414-17. Consequently: keep your eyes open for a reversal candlestick.
Some Fibonacci calculations reveal the chance of the top around Dec 10-11 if this uptrend pace slows down significantly. If it doesn't, we don't have more then 2 trading days
To my knowledge, it might not be worth going long. Just wait for the reversal candlestick on the 5min and 15min chart, bearing in mind that it might happen during our sleeping time.



The whole pattern, is a huge retracement wave 2 down (see "e2", bottom right), started in April 2010 and it's shaping a "1-2-3-4-5" pointing down, as in the monthly chart below. We are currently completing leg 4 up.

Leg 4 up is part of correction wave "2" made out of the above mentioned 5 legs and ending down in the area named "e2", the lower cluster of horizontal lines.

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.

The blue channel - weekly chart below - shows that the major wave 4 (in red, top right, font 12, near the apex of the triangle) is, in turn, made of 5 waves itself. The 5th one is now heading to 4555 and it's theoretically supposed to reach the upper channel line at 4628.
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.

In the daily chart below, the last wave up stopped at 4482 which is exactly the 61.8% retracement of wave 1 in red. However, it should be heading to 4514-17 if it overcomes this resistance

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.

The 4hour chart below doesn't show any sign of a reversal candlestick yet augmenting the probability to reach 4514-17


and so the 1hour chart below