Thursday, 29 March 2012

SPI200, Thursday, March 29 2012

I've been asked to publish my analysis of the SPI200. Well, it doesn't seems reassuring at all.

Starting from the MONTHLY CHART below, it's preatty clear that the SPI200  failed to reach level 4,400 and it actually stopped right on level 50% (4,363). If an A-B-C-D-E unfolds the target could be 3,700.

In the WEEKLY CHART below I use a count of 7 waves - in red - which is equivalent to a 3 wave retracement pattern. Instead a count of  9 is equivalent to a 5 wave pattern - in white.

The chart completed 5 waves up and doesn't seem to be willing to rise any further. The relevant information in this chart is that curious formation called PINOCCHIO, a candlestick that shows a possible target at 3,700.

The daily chart below confirms 5 waves up - in white. Short tem target a 4,200 (the red line). Note the channel in blue: the chart touched the boundaries 4 times. Consequently, it's expected to breakout soon. The last wave up (wave 5) is considered a "through over", an indication of impending reversal according to Gann.

The 4H CHART below shows the completion of 9 wave up - equivalent to 5 waves - after wave 4 in ligtht blue. The last 2 candles with long tails confirm the possible reversal pattern. This is also a double top which further confirms a reversal condition.

Finally, the 1H CHART below shows clearly all 9 waves up, plus a double top. Also, just under the number 9, there is a reversal engulfing candlestick pattern.

What I will try to do: shortening the index by entering just below level 4,350. Target 4,302 (level 50%).

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