Sunday, 18 November 2012

SPI200, Sunday, Nov 18, 2012

Hi Traders,

 
Before getting into my analysis, please take note that I will run a course in January in Sydney: TRADING WITH ELLIOTT WAVES AND FIBONACCI.
 
 
HOW LONG: It's a 3 day course, 6 hour/day, 10am-1pm & 2pm-5pm.
 
WHERE: State Library of NSW, Macquarie St, Sydney
 
WHEN: Friday, Jan 18, Saturday Jan 19 and Sunday Jan 20.
 
PRICE: $2,870 for early birds (by Friday, Jan 11) reduced from $3,020. Save $150! Non members: $3,170.
 
Bonus! 4 weeks of The Elliott Waves Newsletter twice a week, on Wednesday and Sunday.
 
HOW: There will be very little blah-blah and you will be asked to practise on paper charts and your laptop straight away. Check the content HERE
 
We will identify set ups and triggers on a wide range of FX & Commodity Charts and we will setup your trading platform to be ready to trade straight away.
 
My teachings are structured in progressive stages: every bit of information will be followed but practical application on real charts.


 
 
 
 
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SPI200: SETUP & TRIGGER

Note that, to make things more clear, I no longer show displaced moving averages on charts.

SETUP
 
The SPI200 future closed at  4359 and it seems ready for the very last rally that would form a major top followed by a major bearish reversal.

If the wave count is correct, we're heading to the area around 4686. If the rally  stops running early - in the area 4565-4583 - it will stage a double top.
 
TIMING:
 
Some Fibonacci calculations reveal the chance of the top around Dec 10-11 or Jan 7-8
 
TRIGGER
 
The trigger occurred already. It's made of 4 elements identifiable in the 15 min chart (last chart below):
 
  • 5 waves down - of the smallest grade (in red)
  • Candlestick Reversal
  • A set of waves made of wave 1 and 2 (in blue)
  • A double bottom
 
SITUATION

The whole pattern, a huge retracement wave 2 down (see "e2", bottom right), started in April 2010 and it's shaping a "1-2-3-4-5" pointing down, as in the monthly chart below. We are currently completing leg 4 up.

Leg 4 up is part of correction wave "2" made out of the above mentioned 5 legs and ending in the area named "e2", the lower cluster of horizontal lines.


Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

 
  
 
The blue channel - weekly chart below - shows that the major wave 4 (in red, top right,  font 12, near the apex of the triangle) is, in turn,  made of 5 waves itself. The 5th one is not there yet and it's supposed to reach the upper channel line or cross it a bit.
 
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
  
 

  


In the daily chart below, wave 1 turned out to be an over-extended wave and wave 3 a regular one. The new wave 5 should be similar to wave 3.

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 
 
 

  
Note the reversal candlestick in the 4-hour chart below. The first expected resistance should be around 4421, given the confluence of few Fib-nodes.
 
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

 
 
 
The 1-hour chart below shows another possible resistance around 4400.

Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.

  
 

 
 
 
Finally, the 15min chart below shows a nearly perfect TRIGGER.
 
This trigger occurred already. It's made of 4 elements identifiable in the 15 min chart (last chart below) as:

  • 5 Waves Down - of the smallest grade (in red) - prior the reversal.
  • Candlestick Reversal.
  • A set of waves made of wave 1 and 2 (in blue).
  • A double bottom.
Click the chart to enlarge. To revert to small view press esc.
 
 
 

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