AUDUSD, Sunday Oct 14, 2012

Hi Traders,

 

From time to time I like indulging in some time calculation. Look what i found.

TIMING

To start, let me recall that:

• In 1967 the AUD was pegged to USD at the rate of 1.12USD
• On Sep 9, 1973 it was adjusted to 1.4885USD
• On Dec 12, 1983 the AUD was floated
• On Apr 2001 it reached the lowest low at 0.4775USD.

I have drawn vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart below, starting from the low on Apr 2001.

In terms of Elliott Waves, the AUD is now performing an a-b-c-d-e slightly down and then up

i.e: the chart is moving down to complete wave "e". After completion, it would finally move up for the last 5-9 waves.

Consequently there's a chance for the AUD to end its sideway move by completing "wave e" down in early Dec 2012 (see vertical line marked "141", top-right of the monthly chart).

If this is correct, early Dec 2012 would be the starting point of the very last Elliott wave up (the 5th, of the 5th, of the 5th) which should end by April 8-9, 2013 (see vertical line marked 144, top-right of the monthly chart).

April 8-9 2013 will mark the completion of a Fibonacci time cycle of 144 month, from the low at 0.4775 in April 2001.

Now, getting back to the vertical TIME LINES in the monthly chart, starting from April 2001. There's a periodicity of 47 month between major low and tops and viceversa.

• Apr 2001 (Low) - Feb 2005 (top), 47 month
• Mar 2005 (Top) - Dec 2008 (low), 47 month
• Jan 2009 (low ) - Dec 2012, 47 month (end of waves 1-2-3-4 and start of 5 ?). See vertical line marked 141 (month).

If this is true, minor wave 5 up might last only 4 month, (Dec 2012- Apr 2013).

TARGETS

By using Fibonacci projections we have a DiNapoli Confluence (an aggregation of Fib-nodes) at 1.12USD - Waw! History repeats! - although we have another possible confluence at 1.32-133 USD.

Analysis

The monthly chart below shows that we are now working to complete 5 waves sideways (ending in Dec 2012).

This should be done with an a-b-c-d-e (labelled in red, on the far upper right).

Wave a-b-c-d are completed but we are not done yet with wave "e" which is bearish by definition.

This wave might target the lower (blue) line of the triangle and it will enfold in 5 waves down (as the Elliott rule).

Consequently, in the monthly chart below, the long term trend is down and we expect 5 waves down. We've already marked wave 1 (down) in red.

CLICK CHARTS TO ENLARGE AND "X" TO EXIT (or click ESC)

 

Once again, we completed wave 1, 2 ,3 and 4 - major grade - from April 2001.

 

Major wave 5 - which can be broken in 5 waves itself - is now completing wave  4 (of 5) with an a-b-c-d-e, as in the top right hand corner of the monthly chart below.

 

 

 

 



 

 



 

Note wave 4 enfolding with an a-b-c-d-e in the weekly chart below and note also the double top made out of "d" and number "2". This is the start of leg "e" enfolding in five waves down.

 

Nice reversal candles at the top of wave "d" and wave "2". Possible tartget around 0.96, then reversal up again to a possible target around 1.12.

Note the double top of the daily chart below. It's made out of wave "d" and wave "2". Note also that the previous uptrend in the blue channel was a "two step pattern", ie: 1,2 and 3 only, which is typical of a retracement wave like wave d.

Nice reversal candles at the end of wave "c", wave "d",  wave "1" and wave 2.

Below in the 4hour chart you see wave 1-2-3-4 and 5 down in the magenta channel followed by a retracement up in 5 waves ending in a double top and two remarcable reversal patterns. Note that the retracement didn't even reach level 38%, definetively a sign of weakness.

Wave 4 in the 1hour chart below enfolds in 5 waves up and 1-2-3 down. The chart is now pushing a zig-zag up (wave 4) and then the 5th wave down. But ... keep focussed! All this is only part of wave 3 down of a major grade! (see weekly chart)